2.10.2025
The aggressor country Russia is restoring the ferry crossing across the Kerch Strait, but not so much for the transportation of goods, but as a backup route for evacuation in a situation where there are signs of preparation for a counter-offensive operation by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. The Kerch Bridge is still actively used by the enemy, but its railway component has major limitations due to one of the previous powerful Ukrainian attacks. The railway branch of the bridge is actually in a state of emergency.
The situation in the Black Sea remains dangerous: the enemy fleet is capable of striking, in particular with Calibers, but its effectiveness has noticeably decreased due to the use of GUR drones. The sea is actually mined, but mostly due to mines left over from the First and Second World Wars. The Russian KABs that the enemy throws into the Black Sea pose less of a threat than older mines.
This was stated in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by naval expert, columnist for Defense Express magazine, researcher at the National Military History Museum of Ukraine, retired captain of the 1st rank Volodymyr Zablotsky .
– The occupying country intends to restore the ferry crossing across the Kerch Strait. This may be due to the fact that the Kerch Bridge is currently overloaded and constantly faces threats of Ukrainian strikes. Do you think that this is really the reason? What will the ferry crossing provide and, most importantly, how long can it last before the first strike by our Defense Forces?
– You have already answered your question. That is how it is, I completely agree with you. The point is that the crossing is a backup option for the bridge, but we see what is happening in Crimea. Preparations are underway there for a more serious operation – I am afraid of the words “our offensive”, but anything is possible. Because radar surveillance, air defense, and missile defense means are currently being removed. Why is this being done? According to the classics of the military genre, this is preparation for the next stage, that is, the task of air strikes. And air strikes, in turn, should precede the offensive of ground forces. That’s all.
And as for the crossing, the enemy is watching it and can only consider it as a means of evacuation, nothing more. They can no longer bring anything there and will not take the risk. Last year, when there was the first massive attack on Crimea, they already took out some of the equipment and even warehouses. What can they bring into Crimea? Ammunition, fuel, but there is not enough of it now. And nothing more. That is, this is approximately how it works.
It is in this context that the ferry crossing should be considered. But we see that they built a railway branch to Crimea, and we destroyed it. The trains burned there, they are still standing there – the enemy cannot pull them away, because there is only one branch, it is impossible to get to them.
It’s about frontline supplies and everything else, it’s logistics. So you answered your question correctly.
– Can we say that today the Kerch Bridge is actually a decorative structure, or does it still play a certain role?
– No, you can’t say that. This is how we slide down the propaganda tracks, and I wouldn’t want to have anything to do with propaganda at all, whether it’s ours or not. Because propaganda is an exaggeration of what exists, with certain goals.
– Then the question will sound different: how important a role does the Kerch Bridge play today in supplies to occupied Crimea?
– It works, but it works with limitations. The thing is that its main component is the railway, but it is damaged, it cannot be replaced now. To do this, you need to disassemble half of the bridge, and then the structures.
The main problem arose there after a truck with explosives was detonated for the first time at a car depot, and a train was standing on top, with a fuel tank inside. It caught fire, fuel flowed down. High temperatures affected the stability of metal structures, which are made of a special alloy. Now they seem to be intact from the outside, but their strength has been compromised. They were supposed to withstand certain loads, but now they cannot do so. That is, in fact, this is an emergency.
Since repairs are currently impossible, they cannot let entire trains pass through the railway branch, but only 5-6 cars at a time. That is why they transport in such small “pharmacy” doses. Moreover, these cars go with pauses. In addition, the bridge is closed due to air raid alarms.
They don’t have enough ferries. They said they repaired the one that was damaged and raised it, but two are still lying around.
– Where are they? At the bottom of the Kerch Bay?
– Not only at the bottom of the bay. One was even sunk somewhere in the sea, and another ferry with tankers was sunk last year right near the pier and blocked it. Now it is impossible to moor there, the pier is blocked. After all, the ferry can only approach the shore in a certain place, so that the depth allows. It is also necessary that there are rails on which the wagons or tankers stand, which are then rolled out to the pier. This was really a very successful attack. Probably not the last.
But the Russians still have five landing ships, which they use instead of ferries.
– The Russians are deliberately dumping KABs into the Black Sea, which is now actually mined. In your opinion, how serious is the situation in the sea with these “mines” now? To what extent does this hinder the grain corridor?
– I don’t have such data, but a KAB is a bomb, it’s not a mine. A KAB is a shock munition. To explode, it has to hit something solid, but not the sea.
There are several tens of thousands of munitions from the last and the world wars before that in the Black Sea today. So let them throw them into the sea. Everything is relative.
– How do you assess the power and potential of the Black Sea Fleet today? What is the degree of its danger?
– It continues to be dangerous. The remnants of this fleet are carrying out Moscow’s orders. They are striking. The latest example is the small missile ship “Vyshny Volochok” operating in the Sea of Azov. Before that, there were isolated examples when the “Caliber” strikes were carried out precisely from the Sea of Azov, but this ship was transferred there. However, we got it there – it was attacked by GUR drones. There was a hit, “Vyshny Volochok” maneuvered, crashed into a Turkish tanker. We saw damage, and damage means that this ship will not be able to perform its tasks in the near future.
The rest of the Russian landing ships are hiding in Novorossiysk, some in occupied Abkhazia. They are combat-ready, they can strike, and they do it, but not as effectively as it was at the beginning of the war. Because we have learned to shoot down missiles launched by them. At the same time, the enemy is trying to bypass our systems. This is a war, this is a two-way process.
That ferry looks like a great target