June 26, 2023
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary force, claimed he wasn’t seeking to oust President Vladimir Putin, two days after calling off a rebellion that had the Kremlin label him a traitor. Mr. Putin has not been seen in public, fueling uncertainty.
Here’s what we’re covering:
- In his first remarks since his revolt, Prigozhin claims he wasn’t trying to overthrow Putin.
- The Kremlin seeks to demonstrate business as usual after the mutiny.
- Global markets are muted after the short-lived mutiny in Russia.
- Tracking Ukraine’s counteroffensive: Here’s the latest on the fighting.
- As the Dnipro River recedes after flooding, residents are returning home.
In his first remarks since his revolt, Prigozhin claims he wasn’t trying to overthrow Putin.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group who mounted a brief uprising against Russia’s military command over the weekend, broke a long period of silence on Monday to deny, once more, that he had any intention of seizing power with his march on Moscow.
“We went to demonstrate our protest, and not to overthrow the government in the country,” he said in an 11-minute, stream-of-consciousness voice memo published on the messaging app Telegram. The statement renewed his sharp criticism of Russia’s military leadership, both for what he claims was shabby treatment of his fighters and its handling of the invasion of Ukraine.
Mr. Prigozhin said the protest was aimed at a move by the Ministry of Defense to force his mercenaries to sign contracts with the government, which he said would have effectively halted Wagner’s activities in Ukraine as of July 1. The fighters, Mr. Prigozhin said, were planning to give up their heavy weapons to the Russian Army until they were attacked from behind on Friday night, killing at least 30 Wagner soldiers — a claim for which there has been no independent evidence.
The Kremlin seeks to demonstrate business as usual after the mutiny.
Russia sought on Monday to project a return to normal after a weekend rebellion that shook President Vladimir V. Putin’s authority, but the Kremlin’s efforts to move on were undermined by a host of swirling questions about the fallout from the armed uprising in which mutinous mercenaries got to within 125 miles of Moscow.
The whereabouts of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner paramilitary group whose forces mounted the brief mutiny, were still unknown on Monday. The Kremlin said Saturday that Mr. Prigozhin would receive exile in Belarus in exchange for calling off his forces’ march to Moscow, the Russian capital, but it is not known exactly what deal Mr. Prigozhin struck, whether it still holds or whether the criminal investigation into him has been dropped as the Kremlin initially indicated.
Mr. Putin, too, is keeping a low profile. He has not been seen publicly since a five-minute speech on Saturday in which he declared Mr. Prigozhin a traitor and promised to quash the mutiny.
The fate of the Wagner group remains uncertain.
Two days after the Wagner mercenary group pulled back from its audacious march toward Moscow in a brief rebellion that challenged the foundations of Russia’s power hierarchy, its fate is in limbo.
The leader of the group, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio message released on Monday that his rebellion was a protest against the Ministry of Defense’s decision to force his mercenaries to sign contracts with the government. That would have effectively forced Wagner to disband by Saturday, he said.
Wagner fighters who did not take part in the rebellion can sign contracts with the Defense Ministry and continue as fighters, the Kremlin said on Saturday, after Mr. Prigozhin said his forces were halting their advance on Moscow.
Global markets are muted after the short-lived mutiny in Russia.
The brief but stunning revolt in Russia this weekend loomed over an anxious opening of financial markets on Monday as investors wondered what effect the challenge to President Vladimir V. Putin’s authority would have on stocks, commodities and currencies.
The answer, at least so far: not much.
Stock markets in the United States fell slightly and in Europe rose slightly. Trading in Russian assets, largely off-limits to international investors because of sanctions, showed the effects of the instability, but the moves were relatively muted.
Major questions loom over the war after Wagner’s reversal.
Though the immediate threat of an armed uprising against the Russian government was defused on Saturday, major questions remain about how the episode will shape the rest of the war in Ukraine — and the presidency of Vladimir V. Putin.
The disarray raised pointed questions in a country that has counted on unity to support its invasion. The world is watching how Russia responds to the rebellion of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, after his Wagner paramilitary group marched toward Moscow and threatened to create a full-blown crisis before backing down on Saturday.
American officials saw the episode as proof of Mr. Putin’s eroding strength. The chaos presented perhaps the strongest challenge to his iron-fisted authority in his decades of leading the country. Mr. Prigozhin publicly assailed Mr. Putin’s rationale for the war and was labeled a traitor. Hours later as his soldiers inched closer to Moscow, Mr. Prigozhin agreed to end his brief insurrection.
Poland and Lithuania raise concerns over border with Belarus after the Wagner founder struck an exile deal.
Polish officials said they have tightened security along Poland’s border with neighboring Belarus in response to the announcement that Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of a short-lived mutiny in Russia, would be exiled there.
Mr. Prigozhin’s location was still unknown on Monday, although he issued his first public statement since he called off a brief but stunning rebellion over the weekend that had his fighters move within 125 miles of Moscow. Russian state media reported on Sunday that troops in his Wagner mercenary group had returned to their camps in Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine’s Luhansk region.
Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the autocratic president of Belarus and a reliable ally of Russia’s leader, Vladimir V. Putin, claimed to have brokered an end to the rebellion on Saturday. The details remain unclear, but the Kremlin said the deal allowed the Wagner leader to leave Russia for Belarus, alarming officials in Poland and Lithuania, which also borders Mr. Lukashenko’s country.
Although there was no indication that Mr. Prigozhin or any of his troops had arrived in Belarus, Poland’s prime minister and defense minister on Sunday visited troops stationed along the border, where they said security measures had been increased.
“As we have seen yesterday,” said the prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, “Lukashenko and Putin are capable of very bizarre actions.”
On the same day, Lithuanian officials said they were also diverting more intelligence capabilities to monitor the “political and security aspects of Belarus.”
“If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told reporters.
The turmoil in Russia has been a cause of concern — and titillation — in Eastern Europe. But analysts doubt that Mr. Prigozhin poses a threat to Poland or Lithuania, both NATO members. Instead, they wonder if the Poles and Lithuanians might be exploiting the disarray in Russia ahead of a major NATO summit in July — which will be held in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital — to gain more weapons and support.
“The situation at the border is tense, of course, because Lukashenko is the Kremlin’s pawn,” said Nikita Grekowicz, an expert on Eastern Europe at the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights in Warsaw.
But, he added, leaders in Poland — which is expected to hold parliamentary elections later this year — “are really addressing their voters” at home. Their posture is “an attempt at building an image of a strong Poland,” he said.
Polish and Lithuanian officials had already expressed concern about their borders with Belarus because of immigration issues. They have accused Mr. Lukashenko of allowing migrants from Africa and the Middle East to pass through Belarus and travel onward to Poland and Lithuania, where local authorities have tried to turn them back.
Poland’s leaders have called this a deliberate strategy as part of “hybrid warfare,” and the country has already been steadily reinforcing its border with Belarus. Last year, it completed a towering, razor wire-topped wall separating the two countries, making it much harder for any migrants to enter.
— Jeffrey Gettleman and Ada Petriczko
I think that it’s safe to say that there will be some bloodletting in mafia land some time in the near future. The only question is, whose blood will it be.
Prigo vs Putler vs Kadyrov.
Indeed!
Putin: The failed coup was staged by Ukraine, because of their counter offensive failed completeley.
I worry about you, Veth. You think just like putler. 🤣
So far RuSSia failed to defeat Ukraine while the Wagners almost defeated Putin. 😎