No reason to believe Russia can break through front line — Ukrainian major

Russia’s 2025 offensive is underperforming last year’s, and by 2026, they’ll lack the economic and military capacity for major offensives

Major Oleksii Hetman said this on Espreso TV.

“It is not clear why Putin is confident that the Russians will be able to break through the front line. Sometimes, people start to believe in their own inventions. After all, Putin’s army hasn’t grown in numbers; on the contrary, it’s trending downward. In Russia, the number of people mobilized under contracts is now less than it was at the end of 2024 and the beginning of this year, while the occupiers’ losses remain about the same. One Western publication reports that 150,000 people were mobilized in Russia in the first half of the year, but I note that this is only 25,000 per month. At the end of last year, it was up to 40,000 per month. Of course, 150,000 is a large number, but it’s 10,000 less than it was six months ago,” commented Oleksii Hetman.

According to him, the Russians mobilize 25,000 troops but lose 35,000, resulting in a negative balance. The enemy also has a negative balance in heavy equipment. As for missiles of various types, the enemy has indeed accumulated almost 2,000, but it should be noted that at the time of the full-scale invasion, Russia had 4,150 of these missiles—twice as many.

“Therefore, all these thoughts of Putin’s—without increasing the army or the amount of equipment, and without having anything new or additional—give no reason to believe they will be able to break through the front line. Let me remind you, as many have said in various publications, that the Russian offensive in 2025 is going worse than in 2024. And in 2026, they have no chance, because they lack the forces and resources to conduct such a large-scale offensive, even economically. This does not mean they will be unable to wage war—they will—but they won’t be able to attack as they did last year. In 2024, the occupiers advanced as far as possible into Ukraine’s territory near Pokrovsk, to a distance of about 55 kilometers. That means, in a year, an army of millions advanced less than 55 kilometers. Is that a success? Is it serious?” summarized the reserve major.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff reported that 201 clashes occurred on the Russian-Ukrainian front over the course of July 9. In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian defenders stopped 61 aggressor offensives.
Over the past day on the Russian-Ukrainian front, the Defense Forces eliminated 920 Russian soldiers and a number of enemy equipment units, including 11 tanks.