A major new document lays out America’s priorities across the globe – and it makes uncomfortable reading for both Ukraine and Nato

Donald Trump’s European strategy is about exporting his Maga revolutionCredit: Allison Joyce/Bloomberg

Roland Oliphant, Chief Foreign Analyst

05 December 2025

Donald Trump’s White House has published its National Security Strategy (NSS), laying out its vision for America’s place in the world, and what it wants from allies and adversaries.

The 33-page document sets the tone for an even more widely anticipated national defence strategy, which is expected to be released in the near future and will put flesh on the conceptual bones.

National security strategies are generally released by presidents once each term. So what does Trump’s say?

The Monroe Doctrine is back

The strategy calls its version of the Monroe Doctrine (which holds that America will never allow interlopers to dominate the Western hemisphere) the “Trump Corollary”. But it is really a restatement of a ruthlessly assertive strategy of US dominance in the Americas.

We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America

The United States must reconsider our military presence in the Western Hemisphere. This means four obvious things:

• A readjustment of our global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere, especially the missions identified in this strategy, and away from theaters whose relative import to American national security has declined in recent decades or years.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America

Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela is already feeling the pressure of this approach. Traditionally, the Monroe Doctrine has manifested in US intervention in Latin America. But given what Trump has said in the past about expanding America’s borders, Canada and Greenland may be nervous about what the Trump Corollary means in the north.

There are implications for others too. The “non-Hemispheric competitor” on Trump’s mind is presumably China, which has invested heavily in some Latin American countries.

Nato expansion is over

For Europeans, the NSS is more evidence that the US may draw down its military and diplomatic commitments to Nato in order to focus on things closer to home.

Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize:

• Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia;
• Enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own defense, without being dominated by any adversarial power;
• Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations;
• Opening European markets to US goods and services and ensuring fair treatment of US workers and businesses;
• Building up the healthy nations of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe through commercial ties, weapons sales, political collaboration, and cultural and educational exchanges;
• Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of Nato as a perpetually expanding alliance; and
• Encouraging Europe to take action to combat mercantilist overcapacity, technological theft, cyber espionage, and other hostile economic practices.

Its stated ambition of a block on further expansion of the transatlantic alliance will be a body blow both to Ukraine, which sees eventual membership as the ultimate security guarantee against an aggressive Moscow, and to European countries that believe choosing alliances is a fundamental sovereign right.

The strategy also makes clear that Washington expects its existing Nato allies to meet defence spending ultimatums laid down by Trump.

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Ukraine – peace in Trump’s time

Ending the war in Ukraine and reviving “European greatness” are strategic priorities for Washington, the NSS says.

That sounds positive, but European leaders will note with alarm that the document avoids any criticism of Russia while aggressively questioning their own legitimacy.

The NSS also describes the Kremlin’s invasion as a squabble that America has to manage, but stops short of aligning the US with either side.

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Ukrainians will welcome the commitment to their survival. But they and their European allies will want to know what “re-establishing strategic stability” with Russia means.

It could mean deterring Vladimir Putin from launching another invasion – but it might also mean reintegrating him into the global economy as if nothing had happened.

Europe must be Maga

The most remarkable passage of all is an attack on US allies who have doubts about the American approach.

The Trump administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition. A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America

That is an astounding claim about democratically elected allied governments.

But then, the strategy makes clear that this administration believes that Europe’s big problem is not Russia, but “civilisational erasure” stemming from immigration.

It goes on: “The growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism.”

Attacking legitimately elected governments while endorsing opposition parties is a fairly blatant form of interference in domestic affairs. But that’s the point: Trump’s European strategy is about exporting his Maga revolution.

China

There is no such equivocation on China, which the strategy covers in greater detail and at greater length than any other part of the world.

Beijing, it states, is a major challenge and must be contained economically in order to avoid military confrontation.

Which means that the Indo-Pacific is already and will continue to be among the next century’s key economic and geopolitical battlegrounds. To thrive at home, we must successfully compete there – and we are.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America

That reflects the preoccupations of the administration’s “prioritisers”, led by Elbridge Colby at the Pentagon, who want to gear up to face the challenge in the Pacific, even if it means abandoning US commitments elsewhere around the world.

First, the United States must protect and defend our economy and our people from harm, from any country or source. This means ending (among other things):

• Predatory, state-directed subsidies and industrial strategies;
• Unfair trading practices;
• Job destruction and deindustrialization;
• Grand-scale intellectual property theft and industrial espionage;
• Threats against our supply chains that risk US access to critical resources, including minerals and rare earth elements;
• Exports of fentanyl precursors that fuel America’s opioid epidemic; and
• Propaganda, influence operations, and other forms of cultural subversion.

Allies will be pressured to “adopt trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption, because South-East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East cannot alone absorb China’s enormous excess capacity”.

In by far the most specific section about America’s military stance, the strategy advocates denying China control of the First Island Chain, which includes Taiwan and the Philippines, beefing up traditional Indo-Pacific alliances, and taking measures to protect critical infrastructure.

That is good news for Taiwan.

Deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority. We will also maintain our longstanding declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America

This is the kind of commitment Europe expects for itself, but is being denied.

The Middle East

There is remarkably little detail on what America wants from the Middle East, beyond not getting involved in any wars there.

But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was. It is rather emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment—a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged. In fact, President Trump’s ability to unite the Arab world at Sharm el-Sheikh in pursuit of peace and normalization will allow the United States to finally prioritize American interests.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America

Instead, the NSS offers a narration of the current state of play: Iran is weakened; “The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains thorny, but thanks to the ceasefire and release of hostages President Trump negotiated, progress toward a more permanent peace has been made”; and there is fragile hope for stability in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

The White House remains committed to its alliance with Israel, will not question regional leaders over issues relating to human rights and democracy, and remains intent on keeping oil flowing and the Strait of Hormuz open, the strategy makes clear.

No surprises there. But above all, the Trump administration wants to do business in the region. “It is rather emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment – a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged.”

Africa – back of the queue

The world’s second most populous continent warrants just three paragraphs at the very end of the document, which is a pretty clear indication of where it sits on American priorities.

As in the Middle East, the major focus is on business.

For far too long, American policy in Africa has focused on providing, and later on spreading, liberal ideology. The United States should instead look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict, foster mutually beneficial trade relationships, and transition from a foreign aid paradigm to an investment and growth paradigm capable of harnessing Africa’s abundant natural resources and latent economic potential.

National Security Strategy of the United States of America