6.07.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The aggressor state Russia currently has enough resources and reserves to maintain the pace of its offensive operations on the front in Ukraine only until the end of 2025. After that, Moscow may face economic collapse.
This was stated by the deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine in 2014-2015, SBU reserve major general Viktor Yagun on the Espresso channel on Friday, July 5. According to him, such are the forecasts of not only military experts, but also economic experts.
“Most experts are now inclined to believe that if the situation continues at the level it is, then Russia can maintain the pace of offensive operations until the end of 2025. If nothing changes dramatically, then at the end of 2025, winter-fall, an economic collapse (in Russia. – Ed.) may simply occur. Their state will not be able to withstand the situation that they themselves created, at the pace that exists now,” Yagun said.
At the same time, according to him, this could happen earlier. For example, if the Ukrainian Defense Forces are able to conduct counter-offensive operations on the front line. In addition, other events could occur, in particular, within Russia itself.
“We are talking about Russia’s resources. In order to conduct offensive operations, resources and means are needed. Therefore, it is not so much military experts who are talking about the deadline until the end of 2025, but economists,” he added.
As reported by OBOZ.UA, the director of military programs at the Razumkov Center, military expert Nikolai Sungurovsky believes that the Russian army is concentrating its main efforts on the eastern flank of the front, since it does not have sufficient reserves to launch a decisive offensive at the strategic level.
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“Most experts are now inclined to believe that if the situation continues at the level it is, then Russia can maintain the pace of offensive operations until the end of 2025.”
In other words, if the West continues pussyfooting around, fails to grow a spine, and continues refusing Ukraine the means and permissions to do the right things. This also assumes that Ukraine can’t destroy much more of mafia land’s oil industry until then.
There are a lot of ifs, whens, and buts, in such a prediction … as usual.