Tinatin Japaridze
Eurasian Security and Geopolitical Risk | Eurasia Group Analyst | Author of “Stalin’s Millennials” (2022) | “The Implications of Emerging Technologies in the Euro-Atlantic Space” [contrib.] (2023) | Girl Security Mentor
July 13, 2024
Negotiations? About what? If anyone believes that they can actually negotiate with Putin in any substantial and/or legitimate way, I have one word for you: Godspeed (and even that is overly optimistic.)
Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and China’s Xi Jinping, among others, will continue to portray themselves as peacemakers. However, without a genuine appetite and willingness from Moscow and Kyiv to relinquish the currently occupied territories or succumb (read: capitulate) to increased Russian pressure, #peace remains unattainable—certainly not in any lasting or meaningful form. Nevertheless, calls for a negotiated settlement will fluctuate, constantly ebb and flow, keeping media headlines busy.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin has significant difficulty perceiving—let alone accepting—Ukraine as an independent country. He views #Ukraine as an integral part of the Russian sphere. This fundamental issue lacks an immediate solution, regardless of the diplomatic efforts these leaders might undertake. Putin’s obsession with Ukraine and his denial of its historical legitimacy (long preceding his de-legitimization efforts vis-a-vis Volodymyr #Zelensky’s presidency) have been evident for a long time—even before the illegal annexation of Crimea. Although such arguments are not new, his stance certainly intensified leading up to the full-scale invasion in 2022. #Putin actively likened his invasion of Ukraine to the imperial conquests of Russian Czar Peter the Great, claiming he was “returning Russian lands.”
On 12 July, 2021, Putin published a revanchist article on the #Kremlin website in both Russian and Ukrainian, entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In it, he attempted to argue, without any supporting (read: tangible) evidence, that there are no historical grounds supporting the existence of a separate Ukrainian nation before the Soviet period. While he tried to claim that #Russia views the existence of the Ukrainian nation “with respect,” within the same sentence, he asserted that modern Ukraine owes its territorial form to the Soviet era, and more specifically, to Vladimir I. Lenin. Red flags, anyone?
Although the Kremlin will continue to use various justifications for its actions in Ukraine—such as “de-Nazification” (a term that remains vastly unclear, to say the least) and “de-militarization”—the core issue remains unchanged: Putin (and many of his compatriots) will never accept Ukraine as a sovereign, independent nation with its own rich history, culture, and traditions.
The events of recent years have definitively shown that much like Russia is not Ukraine, Ukraine is NOT Russia—never was, and never will be. This is reality Putin will never willingly accept. Given this mindset, the prospects for any substantial #negotiations or even a lasting ceasefire (if it were to be achieved for a hot second) remain highly unlikely and out of reach.
