Pushing Kyiv into territorial concessions would be a boon for Putin – and a disaster for the alliance
19 August 2023 • 6:03pm
Nato appears to have abandoned hopes of a Ukrainian victory. Speaking in Norway, secretary general Jens Stoltenberg’s chief of staff, Stian Jenssen, said that a peace deal might involve Kyiv ceding territory to Russia in return for Nato membership.
His comments sparked fury in Ukraine, and rightly so. While Jenssen later apologised for the way he had expressed his views, he did not retract them. Stoltenberg’s subsequent insistence that peace talks will happen on Kyiv’s terms will not have quashed suspicions that Jenssen has revealed how the West really sees the war.
A recent US intelligence assessment indicated that Kyiv’s counteroffensive will fail to achieve its objective of cutting Russia’s land corridor to Crimea. The gloomy conclusion drawn by some is that despite ongoing offensives by both Russia and Ukraine, neither side will make gains of strategic significance.
The answer to this apparent stalemate is not to pressure Ukraine into conceding Russian annexation of its land, but to change the facts on the ground. That can only be done by redoubling efforts to supply Kyiv with sufficient combat resources to drive Russia out, if not this year then next.
Yet two years after the ignominious retreat from Afghanistan, the West seems again to be on the brink of embracing defeat. A peace deal on these terms would mean victory for Russia and defeat for Ukraine. How could surrendering territory to the aggressor be anything else?
We must instead give Kyiv the support that we have failed to provide so far. The latest reports from Washington tell us nothing new. They only confirm identical assessments made in February, which predicted that shortfalls in equipment and force strength would lead to the failure of the counteroffensive.
What we are seeing now, in other words, is the failure of the West to stand by its principles. Instead of taking decisive action earlier this year to ensure Kyiv was properly equipped, Washington and Berlin urged Ukraine to fight according to Nato tactical doctrine, while depriving it of the means to do so. The West continued to drip-feed military hardware, bickering and hand-wringing about the tanks, F-16s, ATACMS and cluster shells vital for Kyiv’s success.
After months of agonising, the US eventually supplied cluster munitions, but has only this week grudgingly approved the provision of F-16s by Denmark and the Netherlands in the fullness of time. Had Biden adopted Churchill’s wartime mantra of “action this day” when Zelensky first asked for these planes, they could now be attacking Russian forces in Ukraine. As it is, they will not be in the skies until sometime next year, if then.
Even now, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has been calling for “more peace talks”, while he continues to procrastinate over whether or not to supply urgently needed Taurus cruise missiles. The very idea of peace negotiations in this situation would be farcical if it were not so dangerous.
Every effort so far has amounted to little more than meaningless talking shops. Short of battlefield defeat, no pressure that any country other than China could apply on Putin is likely to lead to withdrawal of his army from the land he has conquered. And despite Beijing’s appearance at the Jeddah talks, Xi Jinping is not in the business of forcing concessions on Putin that he would see as strengthening the West.
And the alternative plan for Ukraine to join Nato after giving up large swathes of its sovereign territory is ridiculous. Apart from anything else, Putin would not agree to any expansion of Nato. But even if he would, there would be no value to Ukraine in joining an alliance that had made itself irrelevant by effectively surrendering to Russia. For that would be the true meaning of Nato’s failure to ensure its ally prevails in the most significant military conflict in Europe since it was formed.
“Short of battlefield defeat, no pressure that any country other than China could apply on Putin is likely to lead to withdrawal of his army from the land he has conquered. And despite Beijing’s appearance at the Jeddah talks, Xi Jinping is not in the business of forcing concessions on Putin that he would see as strengthening the West.”
This undeniable fact has still not permeated through to the allies.
Until it finally does, Ukraine’s pain will continue and the putinaZi murder gang will continue to gloat at the death and misery they are inflicting.
Why are we bothering with that worthless organization made up of cowards, idiots, assholes, self serving krauts and frogs, narcissistic fuckin fascists and Nazis like ORBAN. What is the point???
The point is that without Nato weapon deliveries, Ukraine would have to surrender, Cap. Despite all disappointments, let’s be realistic about that. The solution ain’t to get rid of Nato, but to keep up the political pressure and to put the deliveries to the very best use. There’s also no way around Ukraine producing more stuff on its own. To be honest, the efforts of Ukroboronprom have been rather underwhelming so far. Only one product seems to have been produced in mentionable quantities, Stugna-P. Also, the tank repairshops seem to be working. But otherwise, especially regarding ammunition, Ukroboronprom has been a disappointment. There’s historical political reasons for that, sure, but that sad situation needs to change.
That bloated corporation needs to focus on some areas of expertise, like missiles, instead of trying to produce everything. Some sectors, like shipbuilding or producing yet another self propelled howitzer, make no sense and should be abandoned. It’s high time the Zelenskyy government gets the reform of the defense sector done, since that will he essential for safeguarding the nation. Production should include that stuff that Nato won’t deliver, long range missiles. Ukraine can and should do more for its defence, and that would help against unemployment, too.
If Putin wins, Taiwan will be the next victim. Instead of moving our Halbleiter production from Taiwan to the West we should help Ukraine regain (at least) Donbas and blow the Kerch to send a clear message to the world that borders cannot be changed by military force.
It all … every bit of this … boils down to a single person who should never have seen the inside of the White House; sleepy Joe Biden. One of our worst presidents ever. A spineless, cockless coward that turned the White House into a Yellow House.
We are used to the pussies in Europe – at least to those that lie west of Poland, because Poland and the others in Eastern Europe have kept their courage. But that we, the greatest nation on earth, should follow their example of being cowards, is a giant disgrace. And, when I think about what other potential presidents we have at the starting gates, I shudder with anger and despair.
The shining beacon of freedom and democracy that is the United States is slowly being extinguished by the likes of Joe and Donald and all the other assholes in our politics.
Why german Radio Harmony keeps showering the audience with F.K.K. ads? I can’t even stand dressed germans! 🤣
“Poland and the others in Eastern Europe have kept their courage”
Uh huh. Last time I looked, Hungary belongs to Eastern Europe, while Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden etc. are to the west of Poland. Guess who’s doing more for supporting Ukraine?
You know what I meant. Hungary is the sole exception in Eastern Europe. And, the Western ones were VERY slow and VERY reluctant to send anything at all. I remember the 500 helmets that Scholz started with.
Poland and the Baltics have not only been the first and the most vehement supporters of Ukraine, but they have given the most aid measured by their GDPs.