11/29/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

Currently, no one knows what American aid to Ukraine will look like under the newly elected US President Donald Trump. But it seems that European leaders still understand that the main burden of problems will fall on Europe. That is why French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are discussing the possibility of creating the core of a coalition that will help Ukraine if the United States under Trump refuses to support Ukraine.

Against this background, discussions about sending Western troops to Ukraine resumed. Britain is sending more Storm Shadow missiles to Kyiv, and France intends to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and other weapons with proceeds from frozen Russian assets.

It seems that NATO has finally realized that the war is much closer than it seems. We have a certain change in rhetoric regarding the opposition to Russia.

In an exclusive interview for OBOZ.UA, the head of the Ukraine-NATO public league, Serhiy Jerzh, shared his thoughts on how Western partners are trying to prepare Ukraine for Trump’s arrival.

– It is stated that the newly elected President of the USA, Donald Trump, has not decided exactly how he will act regarding the support of Ukraine in the war against Russia. However, numerous statements and actions of European leaders and the current administration of US President Biden indicate that they do not expect anything good in this direction, and therefore they are trying to create a certain bridgehead for supporting Ukraine, realizing that it is Europe that will bear the main burden of supporting Ukraine. . Your vision of this process?

– Within NATO, the biggest beneficiaries of the Alliance in terms of security are the Europeans. They get more positives from the existence of NATO than the Americans. Europeans are the biggest consumers of this security provided by the Alliance as a whole. Therefore, obviously, it would be normal if the Europeans played a greater role in terms of European security.

The war is in Europe, European countries and Ukraine are suffering, so it is better to look less in the direction of the United States. We need to do something ourselves, so the growth of military budgets and efforts to change approaches to defense are obvious here. It has long been clear that the Europeans need to do something more in terms of supporting Ukraine with weapons, in terms of providing financial aid. And the main thing is to take more non-standard steps and initiatives to strengthen the security of Europe, which is combined with the security of Ukraine.

– One of these steps is the sending of Western troops to Ukraine, the discussion in this direction has started again. However, the question arises in what form the troops of such countries as France and Great Britain can appear on the territory of Ukraine, and, most importantly, when it can happen. Will our partners agree to enter their troops during the ongoing war, or will they expect a freeze, the creation of a demilitarized zone and act as security guarantors for Ukraine?

– It seems to me that it is still too early to talk about a demilitarized zone. As for the strengthening of Ukraine, these are the realities of today. It is very good that the President of France highlighted this topic, and recently the Minister of Foreign Affairs of France said that it is very important that we do not set any red lines and barriers for ourselves in supporting Ukraine, in particular regarding the sending of troops. The main thing it says is that such an option is possible, regardless of whether it will be used or not. Maybe there will be troops, maybe there won’t be. But our Western partners should not prevent themselves from doing something in this direction.

It is doubtful that NATO in general can make such decisions, but at the level of individual countries, anything is possible. If there is a core of countries that can be formed in terms of such more active support for Ukraine, it is, of course, France, Germany and Great Britain. Perhaps other countries will join, it would be quite possible. Moreover, we said earlier that such troops could be on the western border of Ukraine, on the northern border of Ukraine with Belarus. Where there are no hostilities, but this would free up our Ukrainian forces, which could be used with great need on the eastern front.

– NATO has at least begun discussing the task of preventive “high-precision strikes” on the territory of Russia in the event of an armed conflict with the Alliance countries, said the head of the bloc’s military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer. He called it positive the fact that NATO has changed its attitude towards its essence as a defense alliance.

“It is better not to wait, but to hit the launchers in Russia if Russia attacks us. We need a combination of high-precision strikes that take out the structure of the system used to attack us, and we have to strike first,” Bauer said.

It seems that the perception of the existing picture has finally changed in the Alliance, that perhaps it is necessary to attack first, and not “to sit and wait for the Russians to attack” and only then to react.

– I think that this is a response to the change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which refers to preventive strikes against nuclear states that support non-nuclear countries that will strike Russia. But in any case, Bauer’s statement is positive in that we finally have important messages about Russia.

In my opinion, this is a rather thoughtful statement that changes approaches, because we are already hearing that NATO can launch a preemptive strike, rather than waiting for an attack and reacting after the fact. In general, this is a complete change in the rhetoric and concept of NATO’s approach to deterring Russia.

Previously, it consisted in the fact that Russia is a strategic partner, there is cooperation, there are no reasons for speculation, wait for an attack and only then respond. But it no longer works and the Alliance understands it.

The change in concept took place, in particular, at the insistence of the Baltic countries, which said that they do not want to be under occupation for a single day, after what happened in Buch and other occupied cities of Ukraine, after the atrocities that the Russian army is committing against the civilian population. And NATO has changed these approaches, there is a strengthening of the eastern border, there is an increase in contingents in the Baltic countries, in Poland.

The latest statement by Rob Bauer is supposedly a new step in this statement, it is such a warning to Russia that in the end no one will wait for any attacks from the Russian side, look around, wait and then think about what to do about it. That is, a pre-emptive strike may be launched, this is such a quiet, somewhat modest statement, but a very strong signal, and it radically changes the situation today.

Therefore, the cynicism and rudeness, which has been coming from Russians for many years, must be put to an end. It seems to me that NATO and the European Union have finally begun to think seriously about how to achieve this and appease Moscow.

– Against the background of Russia’s attack on Ukraine with an experimental medium-range ballistic missile last week, on November 26, an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council was held. We heard from the Alliance a promise not to weaken its support for Ukraine after Russia’s use of Oreshnik on the Dnipro, but that’s officially all. Is the reaction of Ukraine’s partners sufficient to such actions by the Russians?

– We would like to see a bigger reaction, that’s obvious. Yes, an emergency meeting of the Council took place. It had an introductory nature, those present heard information from the Ukrainian military, but it is important for us that practical steps to support Ukraine take place as soon as possible.

So I think there may be an open part and a closed part here. We can hope that some things will still be approved. After all, on December 3-4, NATO will hold a meeting at the level of foreign ministers, from which we expect results, and the meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council took place at the level of mission representatives, besides, it was more of a working meeting.

– The NATO Parliamentary Assembly adopted a resolution calling for increased support for Ukraine. In particular, the document mentions the provision of medium-range missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 5,500 km. The assembly also called for Ukraine to be accepted into the Alliance as soon as possible.

– These are very strong statements, but they have more of a psychological effect. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly consists of representatives of the parliaments of 32 member countries and 15 NATO partner countries, including Ukraine. Its decisions are of a recommendatory nature, but it is still a signal to the parliaments of NATO countries that there is such a common opinion. And these are precisely those parliamentarians who take care of security issues or are members of NATO cooperation committees. And that’s why their opinion is important to us. This is a certain position, and this must also be taken into account, because these parliamentarians will travel to their parliaments and, within the scope of work in their states, will convince other deputies to support these ideas, which the NATO Parliamentary Assembly declared for. And this can influence the decisions of real parliaments of countries and governments, which depend on the provision of aid to Ukraine and all other things related to Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/magate-odrazu-tri-ukrainski-aes-znizili-virobnitstvo-elektroenergii-cherez-novi-udari-rf.htm