The West should learn from the aftermath of the Balkan conflict and enforce its March 2023 indictment of the Russia’s leader
Brendan Simms
Published 28 August 2026
It is sometimes said that the full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine is the first major European conflict since the Second World War.
The death of the Bosnian Serb military leader and war criminal General Ratko Mladic reminds us that this is not the case. He was chief of staff of an army which conducted a policy of ethnic cleansing for four years from 1992 culminating in the terrible Srebrenica massacre of July 1995 in which more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys were murdered. It was this crime which finally prompted determined intervention by Nato and spurred the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to issue an indictment against Mladic and other Bosnian Serb leaders.
The man who had orchestrated the entire war, president of rump Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic was spared, because he was seen as an essential partner in bringing the war to a close. This strategy failed comprehensively in 1998-1999, when Milosevic launched a massive wave of repression against the Kosovo Albanians which seemed to presage a repeat of the Bosnian experience. This time, Nato intervened swiftly and – after a few anxious months – prevailed. Milosevic was duly indicted by the ICTY.
Initially, both Mladic and Milosevic were able to live relatively free lives. Soon, though, the West began to close in on Serbian war criminals in Bosnia, and they became an embarrassment to a Belgrade which was seeking rehabilitation and, ultimately, membership of the European Union.
Milosevic and Mladic were eventually arrested, turned over to the ICTY, tried at the Hague, convicted and sent to prison for the rest of their lives. Their fates showed that aggression does not pay, at least not if we don’t want it to.
Of course, Russia is not Serbia. It has a much greater capacity for destruction, especially through its huge nuclear arsenal. This makes direct western military intervention in support of Ukraine hazardous. Russia is also unlikely to seek, or be granted admission to, the European Union.
More importantly, though, Ukraine is not Bosnia. It is a much bigger, tougher nut. Ukraine is now teaching the West, as well as learning and taking from it. Despite the bravery of many Bosnians, their country never really escaped its victim status and was incapable of taking the war to Serbia itself. It was left to Nato to bring home the consequences of sponsoring aggression.
Though Bosnia suffered far more, Serbia also paid a hefty price in terms of military losses, refugees, territory and reputational damage. Today, the hammering of Russian oil refineries by Ukrainian drones offers a daily reminder to the population that the fire Putin started is beginning to approach their own homes.
Over the past few days, there has been a flurry of activity on the diplomatic front in Ukraine. Anything that brings the killing there to an end is welcome, but the inevitable demand for impunity for the architects of the Russian invasion should be resisted. Letting Milosevic off the hook in 1995 encouraged him to attempt a repeat performance in 1999.
This is why, whatever reservations one might have generally about the International Criminal Court (ICC), the West should stand by its March 2023 indictment of Putin for war crimes. Giving him a get out of jail free card in return for peace in Ukraine will only encourage him to try his luck elsewhere, perhaps the Baltic states.
Ukraine has shown no signs of giving up, and despite some serious wobbles, its supporting international coalition stands firmer now than at the start of 2025. The alliance between Western tech and the Ukrainian military is becoming closer by the day.
Ukrainian drones and missiles are striking ever deeper into Russia. Soon they may be joined by home-built ballistic missiles. With the passage of time, the attacks will increase in number and accuracy until life in Russia begins to equate that in Ukraine.
The Russians entered this war under the childish delusion that as in Georgia, the Donbas, and Syria they would bomb and shell Ukraine, and nobody would bomb them.
When Bomber Harris warned Germany in June 1942 that they had “sown the wind” and would now “reap the whirlwind”, most of their cities were still standing. By the time he had finished in 1945 they were rubble and would have been whether or not Nazi Germany had been defeated.
It is too late for Putin to learn the lessons of Serbia’s failure in Bosnia. His future, and that of his immediate circle, is bleak. So is that of the many Russians who directed and executed the war of aggression against Ukraine. But there is still time for Russia and most Russians to reverse course. They can end the war, turn over Putin to the ICC and begin to bring Russia “back” to Europe. If they do not, the wind their leaders sowed will become a whirlwind which consumes them as well.
Brendan Simms is professor of history at the University of Cambridge. He is the author of Unfinest Hour: Britain and the Destruction of Bosnia
“It is too late for Putin to learn the lessons of Serbia’s failure in Bosnia. His future, and that of his immediate circle, is bleak.”
Just because we want this so much, there is a danger of believing it will happen naturally. Well it won’t. It will take a quadrupling of support to Ukraine, plus the $250 billion of putinaZi cash.
“So is that of the many Russians who directed and executed the war of aggression against Ukraine.
See above.
“But there is still time for Russia and most Russians to reverse course. They can end the war, turn over Putin to the ICC and begin to bring Russia “back” to Europe. If they do not, the wind their leaders sowed will become a whirlwind which consumes them as well.”
There is no sign whatsoever of this. We would need a liberal revolution, not one nazi devil replacing another. Had Prick-Goes-In succeeded, we would have had a street thug who strangled a woman almost to death in a robbery, who liked to smash the heads of his enemies in with a sledgehammer, running a genocidal war.
Prof Tim Wilson on putinaZi genocide:
Also from the DT :
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
Putin is on the brink of the abyss. He must not be allowed to take us down with him
Ukraine deserves a just peace, not a settlement that rewards aggression and leaves the Kremlin time to reload.
It is becoming increasingly clear why CIA Director John Ratcliffe made his extraordinary dash to Moscow on Tuesday. Credible intelligence, I am reliably informed, points to an increasingly desperate Vladimir Putin contemplating an attack on a European Nato country and, if that fails to frighten Europe into abandoning Ukraine, potentially the use of a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine itself.
For those who have watched this war from a distance, this may sound like a heart-stopping escalation. For those of us who have followed it closely, and particularly for Nato’s intelligence services, it is the grim reality of where Putin’s war has brought us after four and a half years of Western hesitation and Ukrainian battlefield innovation.
The extraordinary irony is that Russia, the supposed military giant, is increasingly being squeezed by the Ukrainian David. Ukraine has become the world leader in drone warfare, the alchemy of the modern battlefield, while the Russian Goliath is bleeding men, equipment and wealth.
There is growing concern among Western intelligence agencies that the Russian economy is approaching a dangerous tipping point. Ukrainian strikes on critical infrastructure, including elements of Russia’s oil and petrol industries, are having their effect. Valuable exports have been disrupted and Russians are having to queue for hours at the petrol stations. Disruption to major online retail networks is another reminder that modern economies depend upon complex systems which can be surprisingly fragile when attacked.
Imagine Britain without fuel and with online commerce halted. The result would not merely be inconvenience. It would be economic paralysis followed rapidly by political crisis. Russia is not Britain, of course. But Putin’s regime depends upon the Russian population continuing to accept sacrifice in return for the promise of victory. That contract is under strain.
More worrying still is the condition of the Russian army. After enormous casualties, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find willing volunteers. My own assessment is that the army could ultimately become the weakest link in the Russian system. Russia still has plenty of men left, but the ones willing to fight seem to have been largely used up, despite soldiers’ pay being generous in Russian terms. It is probably getting harder to find recruits overseas, too.
The option of mobilisation – which would allow unwilling conscripts to be sent to the war – could supply fresh manpower for the meat grinder, but this would have political risks, as those who remember the Soviet war in Afghanistan will know.
Russia’s middle classes have tolerated Putin’s war while the costs have largely been borne by others. Start putting their sons in uniform and sending them to Ukraine, and the political calculation will change rapidly. Nonetheless, western officials believe that preparations for a mobilisation are under way. This would potentially give Putin enough troops to do more than simply fight the war in Ukraine.
This is why an attack on the Baltic States or, God forbid, the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, can no longer simply be dismissed as Kremlin bluster. Putin is not merely fighting for his political career. He may increasingly believe he is fighting for his survival, and certainly for the legacy he imagines history will give him.
There is another extraordinary card on the table: Donald Trump. Putin will have watched carefully as the Iranian leadership has put pressure on the American President. With the US midterm elections approaching, Washington has plenty of domestic political distractions. A Russian offer to help Trump resolve his Iranian problem could potentially be enormously attractive to the Kremlin and the White House.
Putin will also have been extremely pleased at the way in which the US has shot away much of its arsenal of long-range precision weaponry at Iran. During a previous episode of sabre-rattling, the Biden administration promised “catastrophic” consequences for Russia following any use of nuclear weapons: consequences which it could easily deliver without going nuclear itself and without much risk to American lives.
The US still has enough advanced weaponry to suppress Russian air defences and inflict a devastating battlefield defeat on Putin’s troops in Ukraine, but such an effort on top of the Iranian campaign would now leave America’s magazines perilously close to empty.
Nonetheless, if Trump can prevent Russian aggression against Nato, prevent nuclear escalation in Ukraine and help bring the war to a just conclusion, the political dividends at home could be substantial. But there is a dangerous number of “ifs” in that calculation.
Putin is fighting for his life. He is not simply looking for a good day at the polls.
We are therefore living through an extraordinary and deeply dangerous moment: an unpredictable American President, an autocratic ideologue in the Kremlin and an opaque revolutionary regime in Tehran.
What could possibly go wrong? Quite a lot.
Our destiny is now firmly in the hands of the European Nato nations. The time for carefully calibrated ambiguity is over. Putin needs to understand, beyond any doubt, that an attack on Nato will trigger an overwhelming conventional response. And Europe has the means to deliver it. Russia’s conventional military power has been comprehensively attrited by its war in Ukraine. European Nato, if properly mobilised, possesses vastly greater economic, technological and military potential. The Kremlin must understand one simple equation: aggression against Nato would not save Putin’s regime. It would finish it.
Meanwhile ordinary Russians, and certainly ordinary Ukrainians, have every reason to want this nightmare to end. Ukraine deserves a just peace, not a settlement that rewards aggression and leaves Putin time to reload. Putin may never stand in the dock for the crimes committed in Ukraine. That is a matter for history. What matters now is that Ukraine emerges secure, sovereign and free.
Col Hamish de Bretton-Gordon commanded the 1st Royal Tank Regiment. His new book ‘Tank Command’ is now in print.
Putler has the CRINKs, the BRICS and Krasnov on his team.
Yet Ukraine must fight alone.
This is terrible, disgraceful and simply outrageous.
Putler deserves far worse than Mladic. He deserves to be tortured. The real deal and not some lame waterboarding. Days, weeks, months … until the creature begs to die, and then some more. Every cockroach war criminal caught alive should suffer the same fate.