Minus $60 billion: Russia will lose half of its share in the global gas market, forecast

Russia’s share of international gas trade, which stood at 30% in 2021, will fall to 15% by 2030.

Russia’s share of international gas trade will fall by half by 2030 compared to 2021, and revenue from the sale of Russian gas will fall by $60 billion by the end of this decade.

This is stated in a study by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Thus, the IEA forecast provides for a decrease in demand for natural gas in 2040 by approximately 570 billion cubic meters, or 12% compared to the previous forecast.

“Russia’s share of international gas trade, which stood at 30% in 2021, will fall to 15% by 2030. Net gas sales will fall from about $100 billion in 2021 to less than $40 billion in 2030 under all scenarios.” , says the report.

In 2022, pipeline exports from Russia to Europe fell by almost half, and the construction of new gas pipelines from Russia to China is impractical, since the demand trajectory in China does not suggest significant growth.

In addition, there is great competition in the LNG market, which in theory Russia could turn to, with projects currently under construction with a capacity of about 250 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which are planned to be launched in the period from 2025 to 2030.

As of July 18, 2023, the media wrote that Russian gas is becoming unnecessary in Europe . The share of Russian gas in the consumption of EU countries before the full-scale invasion was about 40%. However, after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, most European countries began to abandon the energy resources of the aggressor country.

In the first half of 2023, Russian gas exports to Europe decreased by almost 40 billion cubic meters, and by the end of the year, production in Russia will fall by another 62 billion.

As of September 27, 2023, it was reported that Russia has learned to circumvent oil and gas sanctions , and the Europeans are afraid to strengthen them.

According to the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, Timofey Milovanov, Russia lost $100 billion on oil sales due to the price “ceiling” and $40 billion from the gas embargo.

(C)UNIAN 2023