20 October 2026

Russian army losses at the front could deprive the occupiers of the ability to conduct active combat operations. If 50,000 invaders are killed monthly, the enemy will lose an entire army corps.

Military expert Sergei Grabsky stated this on Channel 24. Defense forces are launching preemptive strikes as the invaders approach the “gray zone,” significantly slowing their advance. Meanwhile, Moscow is currently only able to replenish its personnel by 35,000 to 40,000 men monthly.

How much manpower does the enemy have?

According to the analyst, reaching 50,000 monthly losses for the occupiers could cripple the enemy’s offensive potential in many areas of the front. However, to achieve this, the Ukrainian army must endure enormous pressure.

We need to realize that the enemy is still very, very numerous. And even if we assume 700,000, 50,000 is less than 10% per month. The enemy can replace losses up to 35,000–40,000. This arithmetic is a long-term game, but it’s the only game we can play today against the enemy to withstand this insane pressure and do everything possible to transition to more active combat operations, says Sergei Grabsky.

The Starlink Threat and the Kremlin’s Mercenaries

The military expert also drew attention to the dangers of technological dependence among security and defense forces. He believes that complete reliance on the private Starlink satellite network poses risks to national security, as technical failures or reduced speeds negatively impact the operation of interceptor drones and long-range weapons. Therefore, the state urgently needs to develop alternative means of communication.

Grabskiy specifically addressed Moscow’s use of recruits from African and Latin American countries. Thanks to oil revenues, the Russian leadership hires foreigners and sends them on assaults without return, turning them into “disposable soldiers” for combat reconnaissance and depleting Ukrainian ammunition stocks.

Fakes of the enemy and the need for people

The expert emphasized that the Kremlin’s disinformation claims about the alleged capture of Ukrainian cities, particularly Dobropillya, are aimed at creating the illusion of “victories” for Russian television audiences. At the same time, the enemy’s sabotage attempts observed in the Kupyansk area require a corresponding reinforcement of the Ukrainian armed forces.

You can’t send a robot for such actions; a robot can’t handle them. Such actions require people. Therefore, it’s imperative to do everything possible to strengthen mobilization. No one can do this work for us. People are a crucial element of our victory,
” the military expert emphasized.

It should be added that, as of October 20, the losses of the occupiers’ personnel since the beginning of the full-scale invasion exceeded 1 million 568 thousand people.

https://24tv.ua/ru/voennyj-jekspert-nazval-cifru-kriticheskih-poter-rossii-fronte_n3164434