Medvedev’s “peace formula”

HANS PETTER MIDTTUN

About

Hans Midttun

Hans Petter Midttun is educated at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, the Norwegian National Defence Command and Staff College and the Norwegian Defense College, as well as education from the Federal Defence Forces of Germany. He has broad international experience from both operations and postings abroad (NATO, Germany, Spain, Belgium, and Ukraine).

The service includes seven years in command of frigates and six NATO deployments. Midttun put into operation, tested and verified the operational capabilities of one of the newest frigates in the Norwegian Navy. He served at the Norwegian Joint Headquarters and Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) before being posted to Ukraine as the Norwegian Defence Attache (2014-2018).

Based on previous experiences, Midttun is presently publishing articles and analytic works on the security situation in and around Ukraine as a private person.

Fri 15 March, 2024

From ISW 14 March: “Medvedev laid out the seven points of his “peace formula,” which he sardonically described as “calm,” “realistic,” “humane,” and “soft.” 
 
The seven points include: UKR’s recognition of its military defeat, complete and unconditional Ukrainian surrender, and full “demilitarization”; recognition by the entire international community of UKR’s “Nazi character” and the “denazification” of UKR’s government; a […] UN statement stripping UKR of its status as a sovereign state under international law, and a declaration that any successor states to UKR will be forbidden to join any military alliances without RUS consent; the resignation of all Ukrainian authorities and immediate provisional parliamentary elections; Ukrainian reparations to be paid to RUS; official recognition by the interim parliament […] that all Ukrainian territory is part of RUS and the adoption of a “reunification” act bringing Ukrainian territory into RUS; and finally the dissolution of this provisional parliament and UN acceptance of UKR’s “reunification” with RUS.]
 
The tone of Medvedev’s post is deliberately sardonic, and the calls he is making appear extreme, but every one of the seven points in Medvedev’s “peace formula” are real and central pieces of the Kremlin’s ideology and stated war aims and justifications — Medvedev just simplified and synthesized them into a single brutal Telegram post.”
 
ME: I have previously provided “9 reasons negotiations with RUS are utterly pointless”. Medvedev’s post underlines the core message of the article:
Presently, negotiations with RUS will not bring peace.
 
Why? Because we would be negotiating from a position of weakness. Words will not make RUS withdraw. It will only withdraw in the face of a overwhelming military power.
 
All Western references to “negotiations”, therefore, implies compromises and a frozen conflict. A frozen conflict would be a deadly “trap” for UKR. It would leave RUS free to prepare for a decisive assault while leaving UKR no territorial space to trade when absorbing the initial shock of next attack.
Several million-sized cities are within 160 km of the present front line.
 
A “stalemate”, “frozen conflict” or a compromise where UKR cedes the occupied territories to RUS, is tantamount to a delayed RUS victory.
A Ukrainian victory is for several reasons, the only scenario that will re-establish peace and stability in Europe. 
 
That is why President Macron’s initiative to discuss deployment of Western military forces to UKR is crucially important. “We must draw red lines for RUS, not ourselves. No form of support for UKR can be excluded.” President Putin response – his immediate threat of a nuclear confrontation – shows his fear for this kind of deliberations. He knows it would fundamentally change the military balance in his disfavour.

Ref my article from Sep 2023:

7 comments

  1. Western powers with integrity (are there any left?) must understand that despite being a freak and a sinister, genocidal nazi abomination, Medvedev is not some backwoods hick. He in fact represents the position of the entire kremlin murder gang.
    Accordingly it must at last be recognized in the democratic world that negotiations were, are and continue to be pointlesss with such foul scum.
    Unless or until Russia ceases to be a genocidal fascist-imperialist power that is.

  2. I don’t think it makes any sense to take the troll Medvedev’s obvious provocation for serious. That’s just a distraction and a waste of time. 🙄

    • The whole point of the article seems to have been lost on you. Medvedev’s views are not “provocation”, they accurately report the position of the entire kremlin murder gang.

      • You mean, Medvedev isn’t aware that these conditions are delusional, Scradge? Maybe, but I doubt that. 🤔

        • I would say that Medvedev’s rants are an act of desperation. A country supposedly winning this war in Ukraine, would not need to go threatening to nuke all and sundry, if it was winning. Ukraine have had no aid since October from the US, yet russia have managed to take one small town. Once the EU and US get their act together, especially the US. Russian days in Ukraine are numbered, and russia know it. Their economy is just spare changed compared to the economical might of the West.

        • Not delusional. They believe it. And with Trump’s help they will get what they want, without a sustained, massive intervention from Ukraine’s allies.

          The “Ukrainian problem”
          has been addressed many times by Nazis loyal to putler for more than a quarter of a century.

          Alleksandr Dugin wrote in his 1997 book, Foundations of Geopolitics:

          “The sovereignty of Ukraine represents such a negative phenomenon for Russian geopolitics that it can, in principle, easily provoke a military conflict … Ukraine as an independent state … constitutes an enormous threat to the whole Eurasia and without the solution of the Ukrainian problem, it is meaningless to talk about continental geopolitics.”

          In 2014, as Russia annexed Crimea, he said :

          “I think we should kill, kill, kill Ukrainians, there can’t be any other talk.”

          Dugin and another nazi; Zhirinovsky, appeared on putinaZi TV multiple times and were treated as honored guests as they spewed out genocidal rhetoric.

          Medvedev is just a continuation of those Nazis. Putler’s version of Mein Kampf in 2021 just rehashed those ideas. As did RIA Novosti in 2022.

          And you still think Medvedev’s just trolling? No he fucking means it. PutinaZis have a hive mind.

  3. The drunk monkey just likes to chatter a lot. There’s no need to analyze any of it. A visit to the local zoo is the same thing.

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