For a long war.
7.03.2024
There are about 5 million more men in Ukraine who could be drafted into the army. This is evidenced by approximate results in the framework of the texty.org.ua study.
Its authors covered demographic analysis to answer the question of what kind of general mobilization reserve Ukraine has at the beginning of 2024, which is important in the long war of attrition.
The authors of the study note that the error in the calculations can be significant — the last census was conducted in 2001, and no one knows exactly how many people live in Ukraine.
It is reported that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were slightly less than 10.5 million men aged 18-59 (excluding residents of occupied Crimea and Donbas).
The researchers refer to the data of the demographic forecast of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in 2023.
The Defence Forces of Ukraine
At least 1.1 million people serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine today. According to rough estimates, the losses of dead and wounded are already about 200,000–300,000 troops. In addition, more than 60,000 women serve.
Losses due to occupation
Due to the occupation, Ukraine was left without 570,000 men, this does not take into account internally displaced persons.
Refugees abroad
There are about 646,000 able-bodied men abroad. Part of them left the occupied territories through the Russian Federation, they can be deducted from the mobilization reserve.
“In the future, we will take into account that this number already includes many men who are not subject to mobilization — large families and people with disabilities. We will assume that, like women, 15% of the total number left,” the study reads.
People with disabilities
It is estimated that there are about 1.02 million men with disabilities in Ukraine.
Guardians, large families, students
About 125,000 look after a child or adult with a disability, they should also be excluded from the mobilization reserve. In addition, 123,000 are parents with many children.
As of January 1, 2022, there were 431,000 full-time male students with the possibility of deferment from conscription. 5% could remain in the occupation, that is, another 408,000 should be excluded from the mobilization reserve.
It is noteworthy that over the past two years, the number of 1st year students has doubled, since admission to universities is often considered as a way of evading mobilization.
In 2023, the number of new students increased to 200,200, that is, by 180,000 in two years.
Scientists, teachers, professors
As of the 2022/23 academic year, there were 44,000 men among school teachers.
There are data on 41,000 male scientists, to which 16,000 graduate students are added.
50,000 men teach in higher educational institutions or work in pedagogical positions.
Some of them have reached retirement age, so the total number should be reduced by 70%. 5% of scientists and teachers could stay in the occupied territories.
It is not worth considering studying and teaching abroad: the total number of such people is small. Thus, another 107,000 people should be excluded from the mobilization reserve.
Military reserve
According to the Press Service of the Cabinet of Ministers, there are now 528,000 reserve troops, they should also be excluded from mobilization reserves.
Convicts
The total number of convicts is 26.600 people. The legislation provides that persons convicted of serious and especially serious crimes should be removed from military registration.
18-26 year olds
The total number of young people aged 18-26 is 1.68 million. According to researchers, a little more than half of the total number of the mobilization reserve should be subtracted — 707,000 people aged 18-26, who do not belong to other groups that were not taken into account.
In addition, the following are also exempt from mobilization:
Parents raising a child under the age of 18 on their own;
Adoptive parents
Close relatives of those killed in the Anti-Terrorist Operation [the war in Donbas – Ed.] (4.500).
The researchers did not find data on the number of such men.
It is specified that the number of men who care for a child with a disability or for an adult with a disability of group I-II is taken into account only approximately.
People with dual citizenship
The number of Ukrainian men — mostly from Chernivtsi and Transcarpathian regions — with dual citizenship, who most likely left with a second passport, is also unknown. Dual citizenship is prohibited in Ukraine, but it is impossible to check who has it.
Potential reserve
25-26 year olds
There are 413,000 men aged 25–26 years. In addition to students, it is worth deducting 33.5% from this, which, for various reasons, do not fall under mobilization, as a result — plus 273,000 to the reserve.
18-24 years old
If you reduce the age of mobilization to 18 years, you can add another 434,000 to the reserve (this is without mobilizing students).
Total population of Ukraine
The authors of the demographic analysis speak about the lost generation.
“The war has very serious demographic consequences for Ukraine. The number of subsequent generations depends on the number of young people and their willingness to build families. We have very few people aged 25—35 (and at this age they mostly become parents),” the article reads.
Females
Women were counted in the same way as men. Received 5.6 million But children should be taken into account, because when there is a minor child in the family, only one of the parents can serve.
It has been found that 46% of women aged 18–60 are raising children. Consequently, it can be assumed that the announcement of mobilization for women without children will replenish the reserve by 3 million people.
https://charter97.org/en/news/2024/3/7/586520
A not so fun measure, but has to be done. If nothing else right now boots in the ground wise, I wish the allies would at least surge trainers for the trainers.
Yes, Sir Bill, this is sad but a necessity. If the allies had been more steady and courageous, we wouldn’t even be talking about this right now.
Fighting for a total victory, although totally unrealistic under the current circumstances, requires more men to be wasted.
I wonder Sir Mike would you be so cavalier if someone decided to TAKE a piece of US territory?
The first question i would ask myself, can we defeat the invaders? The second thing i would do is fight to defend whatever i can. But i would never say we will fight to the last man knowing we have almost no chance of winning. My priority would be to protect the lives of the people i swore an oath to.
Well, Mike, like it or not, but the majority of Ukrainians wish to get their lands back.
Poll? Link?
You don’t need a poll all you need is history. First crimea, then Donetsk then all of Ukraine. Where the fuck do you stop these bastards?
You simply hurt them as much you can until they are willing to negotiate a realistic peace.
Mike whatever it is that you’re smoking I want some of that shit! Realistic peace? …for how long…until they come back for more?
Without a peace treaty they won’t come for more? Is Ukraine’s army able to defeat RuSSia?
I don’t understand where your naivety comes from. Respectfully I suggest you get under control. Was there a peace treaty with Chechnya or Georgia or the billions of dollars they spent in spewing their propaganda in the West. I repeat, whatever it is you’re smoking I want some of that shit. It’s gotta be really good.
You seem to be a Zelensky troll. Thanks for insulting me after all i did for Ukraine. Doesn’t really matter, you just prooved what poor supporter you are. Will you still be out here next year or be magically gone?
Russia has convinced you and perhaps some of the world that they are the second strongest military in the world. Unfortunately you and others actually buy this crap. Before their invasion Russia was a mediocre economy based on oil and oil only now they’re even less than mediocre. Would you like me to discuss the imperialistic Russia over three hundred years. Rewriting history that suit them or the 100 years since they became a communistic country or the past 30 years of Russian bullshit. No sir, Russia needs to be wiped out for peace of the world. PERIOD FULL STOP
Okay, your words. Good luck with that. 👍
A wiped out russia is a good russia. Many, many people still can’t comprehend this fact. But you do.
Right you are, Sir Cap. You give those bastards a finger, and they will demand the rest of you.
https://kyivindependent.com/survey-87-of-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions/
War = death. It’s the nature of the beast.
I think that’s why most same people avoid this. The only ones who want it are the mentally ill imperialistic bastards
Yes, Sir Cap, and unfortunately, the world has no lack of mentally ill imperialistic bastards.
Russia’s obviously has a massive population advantage and its likely Russia will increase forced mobilization after Putin’s “reelection”. If Ukraine wishes to militarily survive they will have to greatly increase their own involuntary mobilization by ending and limiting at least some of if not most of their current exemptions. So far there is no political consensus on this issue and its not clear whether Zelensky is fully convinced of the necessity.
During the US civil war the draft was used in the north for the first time as loses had been massive. The draft was extremely unpopular as was the rich being able to buy their way out. Major draft riots occurred in several major northern cities including New York.
Lincoln however stayed the course as it was a necessity if the Union was to be preserved. Will Zelensky support increased mobilization by Ukraine and if so get the law changed? I certainly hope he does so quickly.
If push comes to shove, he must and he will do so.
It’s a similar situation in the rest of free Europe, which has just recently started the discussion about Western troops in Ukraine. All parties involved will eventually have to bow to realities on the battlefield if they want to survive.