From the LinkedIn page of Alessio Rebola, who puts Maryna’s posts up on his own account because she is still serving a ridiculous ban on LinkedIn caused by kremtrolls.
Nov 23, 2023
Despite the ban I’m still with you thanks to this group. 😘😘
‼️The war in Ukraine in 2024 and the variability of developments
And based on the experience of the events of 2022 and 2023, a number of predictions can be made about how events will develop in 2024 and even subsequent ones, because the end of the war is not expected next year. Even in the most favorable scenarios.
The year 2024 may become the year of liberation of the South for the Ukrainian Defense Forces (SDF). It is precisely the prerequisites for such a development of events that we can observe today in the combat zone.
The formation of a bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region will continue in 2024, which may lead to the cutting off of important logistics. This will force the Russian occupation forces (ROF) to retreat to more advantageous positions deeper into the region. The Tavriyskoye-Radensk line could become a supporting line, which is not absolutely reliable for long-term retention, and therefore its breakthrough is a matter of time.
In turn, the ROV will continue to try to expand the zone of control in the Donetsk region. In particular, they will not stop putting pressure on Avdiivka, which they are unlikely to be able to occupy before the New Year, and in 2024 they will continue the offensive to obtain the final result. On the other hand, the Avdeevsky direction will deplete their resources, not allowing them to develop offensives in old and new directions.
After the presidential elections in Russia, another wave of mobilization is possible, which will resolve the issue of human resources, despite the fact that the problem of the technical – mechanized component will not be resolved. Russia will continue to deplete its internal resource of weapons inherited from the USSR and depend on the supply of certain items from Iran and the DPRK.
The result of military operations in Ukraine in 2024 could be a classic positional war in the East and a series of achievements in the South, allowing for the expansion of bridgeheads and limiting the ROV in terms of logistics.
It is premature and inappropriate to talk about the liberation of Crimea in 2024. The sequence of liberation of the territories of Ukraine may take the form of Kherson region and Zaporozhye region, between the process of liberation, which may lead to the development of a wider range of operations in relation to Crimea.
Donetsk and Lugansk regions will be the most difficult stage in the liberation of Ukrainian territories. And all this indicates that the war itself will not be fleeting, and certainly not end in 2024.
Glory to the Ukrainian heroes 🇺🇦
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