09/21/2026
Ukraine has significantly expanded the scale and intensity of strikes on Russian territory, covering not only a larger number of targets but also directions, as well as covering ever greater distances, compared to 2025. However, questions occasionally arise about the resources being used for other purposes and not having the expected effect. Well, let’s figure it out.
More details about this can be found in the new material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the group “Information Resistance”.
Since 2022, Ukraine has gradually expanded its capabilities to strike deep into Russia. And as of today, we can say that even the most protected areas (which were considered such in the past) – for example, the Moscow region – are no longer among such locations .
But here the question arises: how justified is this?
For many, the strikes on Moscow and the region are not perceived as a direct impact on industrial zones, but solely in the context of reputational losses. Although this is a mistake caused by a misunderstanding of the structure of Russian logistics and production capabilities in a number of industries (connected from the regions to the center).
Among other things, the strikes that the Defense Forces have been scaling up in recent years, especially on oil refineries, are incomprehensible in terms of the final result for those who are not at all familiar with a calculator. And, as it seems to me, it is with the numbers that we should begin our review of the successes of the Defense Forces in the issues of strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation. After all, it is the numbers that are always the main argument in any dispute
Numbers
On the night of September 20, Ukraine carried out a large-scale airstrike on the Moscow region, damaging the local oil refinery in Kapotno . Moscow authorities claimed that one of the most massive strikes on the region was carried out using 1,600 drones, but this data is unlikely to be true. Russian official sources often overestimate the actual number of weapons used by Ukraine by 30% or more.
Moscow Refinery is an enterprise that processes about 11.6–14 million tons of oil per year, supplying a significant part of the Moscow fuel market and the needs of residents of both the capital and the region.
Relatively speaking, the damage that was shown and announced in open sources, according to the most modest estimates, costs from $30 million to $150 million. Given that this is the main supplier of fuel for consumers in Moscow and the region, the significance of this damage is increasing not only in financial and economic terms, but also, as noted above, in reputational terms.
Moscow cannot provide the capital’s residents with gasoline? That’s right.
Other strikes are no less interesting. For example, there was a lot of discussion about using strike drones against the Wildberries warehouses , and then OZON. Why? Why? Does this make sense? Maybe it would be better to strike at the production of ballistic missiles? For example, at the Votkinsk plant?
Perhaps at first glance everything seems quite clear, but let’s return to our systematization from the general to the specific.
What is the cost of a Ukrainian long-range strike drone ? On average, depending on the modification, it ranges from $15 thousand to $50 thousand. In rare cases, it can exceed $100 thousand. But in general, the average pricing policy, let’s call it that, is quite understandable. And then there is the degree of damage that the enemy suffers as a result of each such raid.
Here, in my opinion, it should be noted right away that Russia spends from $30 thousand on intercepting each means of destruction – this is the minimum price of an anti-aircraft guided missile and even the provision of one mobile fire group per day. That is, even approximately intercepting one Ukrainian drone costs the ROV at least $30 thousand . At the same time, on average, 2–3 or more anti-aircraft missiles can be spent on intercepting one target.
Thus, if drones with a total cost of about $1 million are launched towards Russia, Russia’s costs for intercepting them could reach not just $2–3 million, but more. Why more? Because this applies exclusively to the tools used for interception. And then?
Let’s move on.
The average cost of repairing any refinery, especially when it comes to damage to such installations as AVT-6 and others, can exceed $10 million. In addition to repairs, we take into account the loss of processing of at least 140 thousand barrels of oil products per day, not to mention the consequences of damage to oil pipelines, tanks and auxiliary equipment.
Downtime in the processing of 140 thousand barrels of oil per day is losses within 24 hours in the amount of up to $10 million! That is, such strikes not only cause situational damage, but also continue to cause losses of tens of millions of dollars to the Russian economy every day, until the repairs are completed. An economy that is focused on replenishing the budget aimed at the war against Ukraine.
A month of downtime at a large oil refinery in Russia could result in losses of over $300 million!
Meanwhile, we are not talking only about a single refinery, but about dozens of such enterprises, especially in the European part of the Russian Federation, which have already been taken out of full-fledged working order.
What about marketplaces?
Over the past few months, many questions have arisen: why strike at Wildberries and OZON when you can strike at Alabuz in Tatarstan ? The answer is actually extremely simple, but it is surprising that it was not voiced before and is not being voiced until now.
The routes to Alabuga are so protected by air defense systems, as well as last-line defenses, that as of today it is impossible to effectively hit this facility. In the future, the probability increases, but not today.
In turn, Wildberries and OZON for Russia are not only a trade turnover of over 10 trillion rubles, but also providing the Russian Federation with dual-use goods, as well as stimulating small and medium-sized businesses. By creating conditions for their bankruptcy, we are stimulating a banking crisis (the inability to replenish the budget through taxes from bankrupt small and medium-sized businesses) in parallel with the destruction of all logistical supply chains for the Russian army.
For example, the attack on Elektrostal, one of Wildberries’ largest warehouses, resulted in losses exceeding 100 billion rubles and led to the ruin of a number of private entrepreneurs with all the corresponding consequences; accordingly, it seriously hit the banks .
Conclusions
Russia strikes our country around the clock with its drones and missiles, inflicting truly painful blows, first of all, on Ukrainians themselves. It kills civilians, trying, against the backdrop of genocide and terror, to create panic in society and force Ukrainians to put pressure on the authorities to end the war – that is, to surrender.
In turn, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are striking production facilities that contribute to the formation of the Russian budget. Strikes on refineries, warehouses, and marketplaces cause great damage – and these are not just one-time losses, but also consequences.
Ukrainian strikes are the depletion of Russian air defense, damage and disabling of key production facilities, the most vulnerable and sensitive to destruction and damage, as well as the creation of an internal crisis – both in the economy, budget formation issues, and in the banking sector.
Therefore, to claim that Ukrainian strikes do not cause any harm and do not lead to significant losses for the enemy is fundamentally wrong and does not correspond to reality. From each massive raid, Russia suffers complex losses, which sometimes develop into medium- and long-term industry and financial problems.
The defenders know that they must put Putler completely out of the energy business – and in double quick time.
With ballistics coming online, we might expect also some hits on the putler bridge to Krym.
First to encourage more putinaZi inserted scum to fuck off back to their shithole. Then to damage keystones and arches, eventually to put it beyond repair.