Zelensky has stated that 2025 will be the year for talks – but not for submitting to the Kremlin’s demands
Credit: AFP
16 November 2024
Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to “do everything” to end Russia’s war against his country by “diplomatic means” in 2025. Zelensky conceded the return of Donald Trump as US president will hasten the end of the Ukraine war.
Zelensky’s comments raised eyebrows as he departed from his typically defiant tone. At the February 2024 Munich Security Conference, Zelensky vowed that Ukraine would defend itself “with or without” allied support. At the UN General Assembly in late September, Zelensky presented Ukraine’s “victory plan” and warned against peace proposals that called for territorial concessions to Russia.
Has Mr Trump’s pledge to suspend US military assistance to Ukraine shattered Zelensky’s resolve to fight against Russian aggression? The evidence points resoundingly to the contrary. Ukrainian officials are acutely aware of the pitfalls of negotiating with Russia and express hope that once Putin’s insincerity about pursuing peace is exposed, they will receive the support they need to prevail.
Ukraine’s confidence that Russia will act in bad faith is born out of recent experience. After signing the Minsk II Accords in 2015, Russia continued to escalate hostilities in eastern Ukraine. In September 2017, Ukraine estimated that Russia had deployed 6,000 regular troops and 40,000 proxy militia forces to Donbas.
Every three days, a Ukrainian soldier perished on the front lines of the so-called “frozen conflict” in Donbas. The coincidence in timing between Russia’s participation in the March 2022 Istanbul talks and its perpetration of the Bucha massacre confirms Putin’s disdain for peace.
Ukraine is pre-emptively warning its Western partners of the inevitability of Russian betrayal. Kyiv’s reaction to Olaf Scholz’s call with Putin on Friday underscores this strategy. Zelensky derisively warned that the German chancellor’s phone call opened a “Pandora’s box” for the West. Dmytro Kuleba, the former Ukrainian foreign minister, warned that Scholz’s call would erode Ukrainian goodwill towards Germany and reaffirm Putin’s belief that the West will eventually capitulate.
Despite military setbacks in Donetsk, Ukraine is doing all it can to stay in the fight. In recent days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces thwarted Russia’s advance on the Kharkiv battleground of Kupiansk. Russia’s 50,000-man army in Kursk, which includes North Korean soldiers, has failed to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their entrenched positions.
Russian casualties are now at their highest levels since the start of the Ukraine war – 1,500 men are killed or injured each day. Even if Trump can engage Russia in talks on ending the war, the Kremlin will not enter these negotiations from a position of unbridled strength.
Ukraine is stockpiling an arsenal of military equipment to prepare for the eventual breakdown of talks with Russia. The EU External Action Service recently confirmed that Ukraine would finally receive the one million artillery shells that it was pledged eight months earlier.
In line with Zelensky’s appeals, the US will send over 500 air defence interceptors to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration. France has green-lit the transfer of additional Scalp long-range missiles and Mistral short-range missiles to Ukraine. Zelensky is also confident in the pace of Ukrainian domestic arms manufacturing. Ukraine has doubled its indigenous weapons production in 2024 and is slated to produce four million drones next year.
Once Putin’s strategy of using negotiations as a time-buying tactic is exposed, Ukraine hopes that the West will lift restrictions on its use of Nato-class weapons to strike Russian targets. Suggestions from Mr Trump’s orbit that the US will arm Ukraine to the teeth if Russia rejects a ceasefirefuels this optimism.
Ukraine is not backing down from its struggle against Russian aggression. Instead, Zelensky hopes that the West will see the futility of negotiating with Putin and unreservedly commit to the cause of Ukrainian victory.
The “peace talks” are a non-starter, barring a miracle.
Ukraine needs 100 combat-ready brigades. That will take up to a year to assemble and will need huge money. Which is why the $300-350 billion of putinaZi cash must be funneled to Ukraine asap; no ifs, no buts. If anyone’s banging on about “corruption”; fine : appoint a global audit firm to oversee the allocations.
There was a retired British General; whose name currently escapes me, who volunteered to drive the strategy forward in terms of quartermasters, troop deployments, tactics etc. Give him the job. He calculated in 2023 that he’d need €72 billion/year to get the ball rolling. That’s gone up now. €100 billion would be nearer the mark. putler is spending €170 billion next year on his fucking genocide.
Much of the needed manpower will have to come from professional mercs and Ukraine needs to be in communication with “fixers” right now to secure their services.
Since we know that the cavalry isn’t coming, Ukraine must develop a viable nuclear deterrent asap.
The good thing is, that mafia land cannot really afford to shell out that much money for the war next year … pardon the pun. This year has been a disaster for its economy, next year could be deadly.
The West is also full of debts and various other problems, but it can more easily regain the initiative in weapons and ammo production, especially as a combined unit. All it takes is will. Or enough fear of a mafia army going further than Ukraine.