Nov 6

Long may he continue to interfere.

The interactions between a national leader and his senior military officers in time of war can often be fractious; the priorities of each are often complicated.

A General has a mandate to win a war, the politician has the duty to provide him with the means to fight that war. This includes, maintaining popular support at home and abroad, obtaining loans, travelling to other nations to retain such support. He must be in the public eye, convincing everyone that victory is possible. Meanwhile the General must provide victories, small and large that his master can use as capital.

When the victories do not come, the political ammunition diminishes. When the political ammunition diminishes so does the ammunition on the battle field. It is a fine balance which Zelensky and Valerii Zaluzhnyi have performed extraordinarily well to date.

Provided, that both continue to respect the responsibilities of one another, the Ukrainian war machine will continue to advance. Both must be wary, Zelensky must not undermine his senior officers. If there is an issue with misbehaviour in the military it must be his top man who provides the discipline. A recent report of Zelensky removing Zaluzhnyi’s second in command might be inaccurate but it should be a warning to the politician to know where his boundaries lie. The same applies to Zaluzhnyi who is extraordinarily popular with his army. He in turn must refrain from any statements that infringe on the political world and encourage his officers to do the same.

Autocrats like Putin readily interfere with their Generals to the detriment of the whole army. The interference of unqualified leaders is self defeating. In a democracy questions can be asked and potential errors confronted, but in Russia Putin’s word is law. While he insists on victories his armies are being slaughtered for little return. Long may he continue to interfere.

Ukraine has presidential elections next year; despite Zelensky’s popularity he must ensure that his extraordinary performance to date is not undermined by frustrations with the lack of results on the battlefront. If he steps back for a moment and takes the time to see the war from a distance, he will be reminded of the extraordinary achievements that a united Ukraine has made. His courage as a leader combined with the courage of his army, stopped the Russian army in its tracks, defeated its navy in the Black Sea and achieved air equality.

Exhaustion, often leads to errors at all levels and I hope that those people who surround these men will guide and reassure them when they are under pressure to continue to stand closely together and continue their march to victory.

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

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Another post from Robin from yesterday:

Negotiation now, is a deal with the Devil.

Russia only asks for talks when there is an advantage to gain from them. That advantage might be a pause in battle, a deception to weaken an enemy, or because they are losing.

When Russia has the advantage, they never negotiate. If they do talk, they demand everything in return for ‘peace’. What they demand is usually so outrageous that it bewilders the western mind. Russians know western nations place a high value on human life and hope they will come to an arrangement. They want something for nothing!

It there is a ceasefire, it gives an opponent hope that can be dashed against the wall later. Russia will accuse their victims of refusing to engage in dialogue and project their own actions onto their enemy, sowing confusion with deliberate reverse psychology. When they combine this with a propaganda effort in the (only too willing), western press, they attempt to convince people that it is Ukraine that is being unreasonable..

In negotiation, Russia’s objective is to maintain a high level of threat in the belief that eventually, their enemies will offer something to stop the war. In the case of Ukraine, it would be a new international border with Russia holding onto Donbas and Crimea in return for an end to the conflict. Such an arrangement would not be peace, it would be appeasement, and only encourage Russia to push further when it had recovered its losses.

President Zelensky understands this better than western leaders. Ukraine has been under the Russian boot for many generations. The reason Ukrainian Generals perform so well is because they understand their enemy. Russia will play ‘chicken’ by raising the stakes in the hope that the opponent will submit. Zelensky knows that if he compromises he loses, if not today then definitely in a few years time.

Russia must come to the table as losers, only then will a peace agreement be possible. That moment might arrive suddenly when their money, materiel and manpower are exhausted.

A temporary peace now, means a greater war tomorrow. Ukraine should not do deals with the Devil!

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

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Nov 7

Enlightenment.

I don’t think the students referred to in this picture are ‘Pro-Hamas’ they are anti-Israel, which is very different. Treating peoples as enemies out of ignorance, is a method extremists use to control public opinion. It is simplistic, dangerous and sadly effective. ‘Educational for students’ should involve sitting in a quiet room and listening to the story of both parties to this conflict without interruption. Few would want to sit through to the end, the remainder would leave or have to confront their own misplaced bigotry.