Ukraine in Focus

The analysis

By Svitlana Morenets

July 2, 2026

Each of Russia’s strikes on Kyiv appears to be worse than the last. The capital’s mayor has declared a day of mourning tomorrow after 20 people were killed overnight in a massive missile and drone attack. The death toll is likely to rise as rescuers are still searching for survivors under the debris of nearly two dozen residential buildings. Among the missing is a 15-year-old girl who lived in a nine-storey apartment block in the Darnytskyi district before a Russian missile struck it, causing part of the structure to collapse.

Russia launched 74 missiles and nearly 500 drones in total, the majority targeting the capital. Of those, 26 missiles and some 48 drones reached their targets as Ukraine continues to face significant shortages of anti-ballistic air defences. Volodymyr Zelensky had claimed Donald Trump was positive about allowing Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air defence missiles following their meeting at the G7 summit last month, but the talks haven’t been fruitful since.

When it comes to Trump, Ukrainians have learned to take his promises with a pinch of salt, especially after he announced, but did not deliver, 17 Patriot air defence systems for Ukraine last summer. That number would have been a game-changer, considering that Ukraine is currently believed to operate around eight Patriot air defence batteries, while three times that number is required to protect the country’s skies against Russian missiles.

Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said this week that consultations with Washington continue, though he warned that it’s still too early to say where intellectual property and bureaucracy are concerned. He also said that ‘progress’ has been made with France on licences to produce long-range SCALP missiles in Ukraine, but couldn’t provide a timeframe.

Waiting for US approval takes time Ukrainians do not have. Even the good news from Sweden this week, as Zelensky signed a deal to buy 16 Gripen E fighter jets, is overshadowed by how long Ukrainians are expected to survive before the planes arrive. The same number of older Gripen C/D aircraft will be transferred to Ukraine early next year, while Russia is targeting residential areas and killing civilians today.

In May, Nato said Ukrainian air defences managed to intercept 90 per cent of Russian drones but fewer than half of the missiles. This trend has continued through the summer as Moscow launches larger and denser barrages against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin claimed on Monday that Kyiv had proposed limiting the war to four frontline regions to spare Ukrainian cities from destruction. The Russian President rejected the proposal, saying this ‘is not part of his plans’, and urged his forces to keep advancing. Zelensky warned western partners that ballistic attacks are Russia’s last advantage in the war, and Putin believes they could sway Ukrainians to concede, but this argument doesn’t appear to be enough to convince them to speed up the deliveries.

Darnytskyi district, Kyiv: A nine-storey apartment block partially collapsed after being struck by a Russian missile. (Credit: Kyiv rescue service)

Quote of the week :

‘It is immoral to justify Russian atrocities against Ukrainians by saying that Moscow acts in response to Ukraine’s long-range strikes against Russia… Russia has no right to make any strikes against Ukraine, while Ukraine has every right to respond, defend itself from the aggressor, and strike any legitimate military targets in Russia’

– Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, on Russia’s latest attack

The war in numbers :

48 missiles

Out of the 74 that Russia launched against Ukraine overnight were shot down

32.4 square miles

Russian forces occupied along the entire frontline last month, according to DeepState

60,000 metric tons

Of gasoline was dispatched from India to Russia amid acute fuel shortages

Portrait of the week in Ukraine :

• Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv overnight, killing at least 20 people and injuring nearly 90. More below.
• Volodymyr Zelensky signed a deal with Sweden to buy 16 Gripen E fighter jets and related equipment.
• The Ukrainian government opened weapons and technology exports, limiting them to countries that have signed the Drone Deal with Ukraine.
• Zelensky reportedly tried to convince Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, not to take part in the presidential election if it were held this autumn.
• The Verkhovna Rada approved a bill to establish the Ukrainian National Pantheon in Kyiv as a memorial complex honouring prominent historical and contemporary figures.
• Poland refused to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine after Kyiv declined to share drone technology amid a growing spat between the two countries.
• Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Dubna space communications centre in the Moscow region for the second time.
• A Ukrainian oligarch and his son were injuredafter a parcel bomb exploded at a residential building in Monaco.
• The EU disbursed £3.4 billion to procure Ukrainian-made drones as part of a £78 billion loan.
• Vladimir Putin claimed Kyiv proposed limiting the war to four frontline regions, which he rejected, saying his forces’ main objective is the ‘final liberation’ of Donbas.
• Germany’s federal prosecutors formally charged Ukrainian national Serhiy Kuznetsov with involvement in the blowing up of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022.
• The Kremlin suspended traffic through several railway checkpoints on its borders with Finland, Estonia and Latvia without explanation.

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Wider reading on the war :

• Putin has lost touch with reality – Spectator
• The ‘Skelya’ assault regiment tortures and beats people to death – Babel
• Russia pounds on the gates of Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’ – Reuters
• The prom went on in Kyiv, but Masha’s date danced alone – New York Times
• Putin’s shadow tankers launched drones to spy on nuclear weapons in Britain – Telegraph

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

https://blend.spectator.co.uk/t/j-e-ydultdty-dtduklwiy-r/