20.08.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The advance of the Defense Forces in the Kursk region has slowed down. The occupying country Russia has managed to gather forces to counter the Ukrainian offensive, in particular by transferring troops from the Ukrainian front to the Kursk region. However, the enemy continues to successfully attack in the most priority section of the front, in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.
What would be the most expedient for the Defense Forces in this situation? To continue operating on the territory of the Russian Federation? To enter Belarus to create a buffer zone? None of these options can be called the best. First of all, it is necessary to stop the enemy in the east of our country. And then, if there are sufficient forces and means, to carry out a “Cossack raid” in Transnistria.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko .
– The head of the Sumy OVA, Alexey Drozdenko, said that the first stage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in the Kursk region went better than expected, but this is only the beginning, and there are still several stages ahead. Can you guess what the final goal of this operation is? And can it be expanded to other regions of the Russian Federation?
– Indeed, based on a number of signs, one can conclude that the first stage is coming to an end. The pace of advancement has slowed, primarily due to the increased resistance of Russian forces.
The Russians went through certain stages in organizing this resistance. The first stage was the involvement of the FSB, border guards, and conscripts. Our Defense Forces bypassed them quite easily. The second stage was reinforcement in neighboring regions, but this did not save the situation, ours advanced further. And in the third stage, they began to transfer trained units from the fronts, and this began to have an effect.
In order not to weaken the situation on the Ukrainian front, the Russians took, as a rule, battalions. Thus, they assembled various units in the Kursk direction. But all this must be taken under control, brought to a certain degree of controllability. All these processes also required time.
Now we are witnessing the fourth stage, when forces and resources are being gathered from everywhere. This includes, in particular, the African corps, forces from the Kaliningrad region and units from near Murmansk.
And all this is beginning to affect the situation with the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation. According to Western experts, in order to stop the advance of the Ukrainian army, a group of about 20-25 thousand is needed, considering that the Ukrainian group can number 10-15 thousand sufficiently trained and experienced fighters.
To increase our efforts in Kursk region, we introduced second echelons. Now intense fighting is taking place not only in the directions of Rylsk, Lgov, Kurchatov, Kursk, but also in more promising areas, in my opinion, to the west of the area where our forces are currently deployed – to the west of Tetkino and to the north. The Russians are withdrawing troops from there, because for them it is a bag with such borders: the border of Ukraine, the current border of the Defense Forces in the east and the Seim River in the north with three bridges. On the morning of August 19, the occupiers’ publics reported that the third, western bridge had been destroyed. Recently, it was through this bridge that the Russians withdrew their troops around the clock, mingling with the civilian population. This is their tried and tested method.
According to various estimates, they had about 2.5 thousand in the Tetkino area. It is unknown how many they managed to withdraw, but it is absolutely certain that they did not withdraw everyone. The Russians are trying to force the way, but in this peculiar pocket it is quite difficult to provide them with assistance logistically. And they understand that the main thing now is to get out and organize defense on the other bank of the Seim River.
And there are 700-750 square kilometers there. If you add these 750 to the 1,500 square kilometers that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have taken under control, it is significant.
As for opening a front in other directions in the Russian Federation, this could be done, it would be advisable if there were reserves and resources. We could consolidate our position in the Kursk direction and move on to the next one, that is, not give the Russians a chance to recover and react.
But we have a very difficult situation in the east. There we need to concentrate weapons and strike, because the enemy is not only capturing populated areas there. There is a threat of capturing approaches to major agglomerations.
I mean Toretsk – fighting is already going on in the city, Pokrovsk, where occupation forces have been advancing for the last few days. The situation in Ugledar has worsened. They couldn’t take it for a year and a half, but now the Russians are advancing from the east and north and posing a threat to us.
– How do you assess the advisability of creating such a buffer zone on the territory of Belarus? After all, we remember how at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the occupation forces were moving from the Belarusian direction.
– No, I think it is not advisable for us. Lukashenko, under Putin’s influence, is practicing moving troops, threatening Poland, and so on. He says that as soon as Ukrainian troops cross the borders of Belarus, he will use nuclear weapons, to which he has no relation except for the territory on which they are deployed. No one has transferred nuclear weapons to the Belarusians – they are under the control of the Russian Federation anyway.
Therefore, all these statements and actions of Lukashenko are propaganda efforts so that we keep a serious contingent in the direction of Belarus and do not use it in other places that are very important for us, for example, in the east.
– You mentioned the enemy’s activity in the east of our country. Why don’t we see a direct connection between the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operation in the Kursk region and the number of enemy forces and assets on Ukrainian territory? There is no mass redeployment of occupation troops to the Kursk direction. What do you think is the reason?
– The key word here is “mass”. The transfer of forces is taking place. They are withdrawing their forces from the fronts, but not entire regiments and brigades, and from these regiments and brigades they are taking tired but experienced battalions, equipped with equipment, and transferring them to the Kursk direction.
There are already more than 5 thousand such forces. So these events are connected.
But Putin sets tasks for the security forces, firstly, to stop our advance in the Kursk direction. And they have already done a lot for this. As you know, the Defense Forces entered the territory of the Belgorod Region for 10 kilometers, but were forced to leave, since FPV drones, artillery, and missile weapons were operating there. This is a serious factor, which indicates that we no longer have sufficient forces in this direction.
Therefore, I believe that it is necessary to make important decisions in a timely manner, without getting carried away by the euphoria of the offensive on the territory of the Russian Federation. It is necessary to focus on stopping the enemy in its advance in the most difficult directions in the east.
If after solving this problem there are forces and means left, it will be possible to consider the possibility of an operation on another territory. Western specialists are considering the territories of the Russian Federation that border Kursk, but this could also be, for example, Transnistria.
Russia has few troops there, but powerful warehouses with ammunition and equipment. All of this was brought there from all over Eastern Europe when the Warsaw Pact was falling apart. And we have the corresponding forces in that direction. Analysts say that if the Ukrainians are so resourceful, they could conduct “Cossack raids” similar to those that the Ukrainian Cossacks once conducted.
But I would like to emphasize that this could be an effective move if the appropriate resources were available.
– Do I understand you correctly – you believe that a buffer zone can also be organized on the territory of Transnistria?
– Call it an elephant or a hippopotamus. It is important for us to achieve success there and put an end to this Russian cancerous tumor on the territory of Moldova on the border with Ukraine. In addition, this will bring us even closer to negotiations on Ukrainian, not Russian, terms.
The roaches have eyes and ears everywhere, so what you’ve read above could be true but doesn’t have to be.
IMHO, attacking Belarus AND Transnistria would not only be easy, but highly beneficial to Ukraine’s cause.
“It is important for us to achieve success there and put an end to this Russian cancerous tumor ….”
Surgery is essential.
Massive radiation treatment, coupled with chemotherapy, and then into the incinerator.
“Therefore, I believe that it is necessary to make important decisions in a timely manner, without getting carried away by the euphoria of the offensive on the territory of the Russian Federation. It is necessary to focus on stopping the enemy in its advance in the most difficult directions in the east.”
Let’s tell the truth. The operation in Kursk achieved only half of what was aimed for (“There is no mass redeployment of occupation troops to the Kursk direction”). AFU must be congratulated for having made it possible to break certain taboos and to have been able to fill the Ukrainian cells with Russian soldiers for exchange. But we have to face the situation, dissipating forces in such operations while you lose territories towards key strongholds is in my opinion madness. I just say it from the heart, I don’t understand military things. But after reading this interview, we can only conclude to be more conservative now in terms of military doctrine and try to stop the advance of the Nazis from Moscow!
The roach strategy is very clear. They are, more or less, keeping up the pressure where they are the most successful; the Donbas. I think the AFU general staff knew that this would happen.
But, what the potato generals are doing in Kursk is a piecemeal effort. The history of warfare is full of wars, battles, and skirmishes that saw piecemeal efforts, and hardly any ended successfully and most ended in disaster. As Heinz Guderian liked to say, Klotzen, nicht Klekkern! But, Klekkern is exactly what the ruskies are doing in Kursk.
Concurrently, they are not gaining land any quicker in the Donbas, and what they do gain, they’re still paying a high price for it.
This could be called being between a rock and a hard place.
We will have to be patient and wait to see what the cockroaches will do next, after Ukraine gains much more land, and this quicker than they can. They can’t afford to let this happen for much longer.