kremlin’s LAST Black Sea Advantage SHOT DOWN (video commentary)

04/20/2026

Russia is spending more, but the return Moscow expected keeps shrinking. In this video, Dr. Jason Smart explains why Ukraine’s growing ability to stop Russian drones over the Black Sea is so important, how that weakens one of Russia’s key attack advantages, and why the Kremlin is now paying more to achieve less on the battlefield.

Russian gains are falling even as the cost of the war keeps rising. At the same time, Ukraine is hitting the refineries, factories, air defenses, and military sites that help Russia sustain pressure. That leaves Moscow with a growing problem: the war is getting more expensive, while the payoff keeps getting smaller.

Ukraine is also changing the air war itself. If Russia can no longer use drone attacks over the Black Sea the way it did before, and if Ukraine keeps disrupting the systems that fund and supply the war, then one of Moscow’s cheaper tools becomes less reliable just as the wider pressure keeps building.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 – Intro: Ukraine Dictates the War
01:03 – Failed Strategy: Russia’s Massive Personnel Losses
03:48 – Outskill Sponsor: Advanced AI for Modern Careers
05:52 – Drone Warfare: Russia’s Failed Aerial Strategy
07:38 – Energy Hubs: Ukraine Hits Russia’s Major Oil Bases
08:47 – Putin’s Arsenal: Ukraine Hits Weapon Plants
10:23 – Kremlin Crisis: Putin Faces Political Instability
11:30 – Russian History: Why Defeat Will End Putin’s Rule