Pro-western party retains majority in pivotal election, as analyst warns the nation is a proving ground for Moscow’s “multimillion-dollar” toolkit of coercion against the EU.

Sept. 29, 2025

WASHINGTON DC – The pro-European faction in Moldova appears to have secured a majority in the country’s parliamentary election on Sunday, a critical victory that keeps the small former Soviet republic on its Westward trajectory toward the European Union.

However, the hard-fought win comes amid unprecedented – and potentially exportable – tactics of destabilization orchestrated by Moscow, an emerging threat that experts warn the West must immediately heed.

“I think that [pro-Europeans] secured the majority,” Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and co-host of the Kremlin File podcast, told Kyiv Post in an interview on Sunday night.

While final numbers were still being tallied, Lautman suggested the pro-European bloc, led by the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), is on track to clear the necessary 51-seat threshold, potentially forming a government without a complicated coalition. “I think we’re good,” she stated with cautious optimism.

The result is a major rebuke to the Kremlin, which had allegedly deployed vast resources in what Moldovan authorities have branded a “hybrid war” to destabilize the country and pull it back into Russia’s orbit.

Western reaction: Congratulations and relief

The results were immediately welcomed by Western officials, who had openly supported Moldova’s pro-EU path and expressed high levels of concern over the Russian interference campaign.

In the US, Republican Congressmember Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), who is on the House Armed Services Committee, wrote on social media: “From the US Congress, we extend our congratulations to Maia Sandu, who has once again secured a majority in parliament and will lead her nation’s further integration with Europe, NATO, and Western democracies.”

The win is viewed in Brussels and Washington as a victory for Western efforts to maintain stability on the European eastern flank.

Siegfried Mureșan, a European Member of Parliament, summarized the sentiment, calling the result a “lesson for all Europe on how to defend against Russian interference.”

New lab for Moscow’s destabilization

For Moscow, the loss is likely to prompt not a retreat but more a tactical shift, according to Lautman, who argues that Russia has shifted its “hybrid war” focus to Moldova, turning it into the primary testing ground for a new generation of malign influence operations.

“Russia has turned Moldova into a testing ground,” Lautman explained. “Ukraine used to be a testing ground for all of Russia’s hybrid war operations – from cyberattacks to political capture, to creating and funding political parties, to media capture, everything,” she told Kyiv Post.

With Russia’s full-scale invasion limiting its operational capabilities inside Ukraine, the focus has shifted to Chișinău.

Lautman detailed an alarming array of sophisticated and aggressive tactics witnessed during the election cycle, warning that these methods are likely to be deployed against other Western democracies next. “I would caution Europe to monitor Moldova specifically for new tactics that Russia is using,” she stressed.

Beyond the familiar disinformation operations, vote buying, and relentless cyberattacks – which she described as “incredible to see how many” – Lautman pointed to a more insidious operation: the recruitment and training of local militants.

“They started recruiting Moldovans several months ago and sending them to Wagner-affiliated camps to train them to carry out violent protests and set off incendiary devices and whatnot,” she revealed.

The election also saw a chilling echo of tactics previously deployed against the US. “In the US election, we had bomb threats being called into polling stations in all swing states and key polling stations, specifically [in districts that lean] democratic. Moldova had the same thing today. I mean, bomb threats were being called in everywhere.”

Massive financial commitment

The sheer financial scale of the Russian effort highlights the strategic importance of this small nation to the Kremlin. Lautman estimated a colossal investment in the election interference effort.

“I can tell you, Russia threw everything into this election. I mean, they spent probably upwards – I’m going to start digging into it later – but they spent upwards of, like, maybe up to $400 million on this,” she said.

Despite the pro-EU victory, the battle is far from over. Russian state media had been preparing an alternative narrative, setting the stage for a prolonged disinformation campaign.

“Literally, up to 1-2 hours ago, if you checked RIA Novosti… you would think that the opposition won,” Lautman noted, indicating that a campaign to discredit the election results is already underway, potentially leading to planned protests.

However, the size of the pro-European victory makes inciting significant unrest more difficult. “If it were a small margin, then Russia would have more… hand to try to incite people,” she said, noting that the country is on high alert, with security measures, including road closures, already in place.

Western imperative: Don’t take it for granted

The major takeaway for Western capitals is a dual message of vigilance and study. “Don’t take it for granted and study the tactics,” Lautman urged.

“Because whatever Russia has done before in Ukraine, whatever they did, and now that they’ve shifted to Moldova as its testing ground, you know, these tactics eventually get deployed across other European countries, the US, and Canada. So it’s always good to learn these tactics and see where the ball [goes next],” she added.

With the election in Moldova now largely decided, attention is already shifting to the next vulnerability.

“The other one, of course, is Czechia next week,” Lautman concluded, underscoring the continuous, rolling threat of Russian interference across the continent.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61029