Kremlin banker predicted Russia’s defeat in war of attrition with Ukraine

The Russian economist believes that Ukraine’s economy will not collapse, despite all its difficulties and problems.

Russia will not be able to win a war of attrition as long as Ukraine is supported by the West. According to The Moscow Times , this was stated at a discussion club meeting by Andrey Klepach, chief economist of VEB, a key Russian state bank that finances the Kremlin’s national projects and has the status of a “state development corporation.”

Klepach emphasized the growing costs to the Russian economy due to Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian transport, oil and gas, and military-industrial infrastructure. At the same time, Russia, which is mired in war, is lagging behind the rest of the world in technological and economic competition, according to the banker.

“We are lagging behind. We are losing both technological and economic competition in the world. And, as I said, we are losing it not only to China and the USA, we are losing it to Ukraine in some ways,” Klepach said.

The banker noted that the Ukrainian economy is “partially destroyed” and suffering from a demographic catastrophe, but despite everything, it is “surviving.” In particular, thanks to huge financial assistance from the West.

“We will not win the competition in this war of attrition. We have the illusion that everything will collapse there. It has not collapsed and will not collapse. Our costs are increasing,” Klepach continued.

The banker said that after the military boom of 2023–24, the Russian economy has now entered a recession. He notes that civilian industries – from the aviation industry to the food industry – have already fallen into recession.

Klepach believes that economic difficulties will ultimately provoke a “social crisis” in Russia. And precisely “when no one particularly expects it.”

“No one expected, let me remind you, the February Revolution. Lenin wrote in December 1916 that “we will not live to see it,” but he did just a few months later. <…> We will not decline economically, but our backwardness will grow with all the ensuing consequences,” he concluded.

(c)UNIAN 2026