05/19/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
A week ago, the Russian occupiers launched what was called an “offensive” on Kharkov, but was limited to two directions at most – Liptsy and Volchansk. A week later, one can fully appreciate what they started, what results they achieved during this period, and what to expect from this cross-border performance in the future.
More details about this can be found in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the Information Resistance group.
On the eve of and during the “offensive” on Kharkov, various media and “analytical” mouthpieces, especially Western ones, reported completely different data about which group was involved in hostilities in the Kharkov region. At the same time, no one clarified what forces and means it was formed from and what it was like before. And this is very important for understanding why what is happening near Liptsy and Volchansk can safely be called a failure of the Russian “offensive” on Kharkov.
The period “before” and “after” the formation of the GV “North”
The forces and assets deployed by the Russians in the Kharkov region belong to the so-called North group of forces, which was formed literally on the eve of the start of Operation Imitation. But just a couple of months ago there was no trace of the Sever military force there. What happened? Groups of troops covering the border – “Bryansk”, “Belgorod” and “Kursk”.
What were they like in terms of forces and means?
GV “Bryansk” and “Kursk” included:
personnel – 16.5 thousand;
tanks – less than 100;
BBM – 220;
barrel artillery – 330;
MLRS – 20.
GV “Belgorod” included:
personnel – 19 thousand;
tanks – less than 100;
BBM – 360;
barrel artillery – 460;
MLRS – up to 50.
In addition to these three groups of troops, there were also reserve forces of 700 people, 31 tanks, 24 armored fighting vehicles and 30 artillery systems.
As you can see, the Belgorod one was the most combat-ready of all the main forces, but its potential was not enough even to prevent raids by the RDK and LSR . In turn, the newly created group of troops “North” was formed on the basis of these three main military forces and reserves, but with the addition of their units from the 44th Army Corps (AK) of the Leningrad Military District (VO), as well as the 11th Army Corps and a number of units of the “West” group of forces. – when it became clear that the full complement of the Sever main force did not fit into the time frame for the start of the operation due to an acute shortage of equipment and even personnel.
As a result, at the start of Operation Imitation, the North group of troops had the following composition :
personnel – 53 thousand;
tanks – less than 400;
AFV – 1000;
barrel artillery – 1000;
MLRS – 125.
In turn, in terms of formations, “Bryansk”, “Belgorod” and “Kursk” had the following composition:
GV “Bryansk” – 1 SME, 11 SME, SB, PDB.
GV “Kursk” – 3 understaffed SMEs, 9 SMEs, SB, DShB.
Main Guard “Belgorod” – 2 understaffed motorized rifle brigades, 8 understaffed small and medium-sized infantry units, 14 small and medium-sized infantry units.
As we can see, the most combat-ready and most numerous part of the GV “North”, the Belgorod one, was not fully formed, and in its numbers and functionality it did not closely resemble a group capable of capturing Kharkov. But what it was capable of was raid operations in the border zone, which is what we eventually saw. And that the Russians, given the available opportunities, turned out very badly.
Course of events
The beginning of Operation Imitation on May 10 represented an entry into the gray zone of the Kharkov region by two regimental formations in the direction of Liptsy and Volchansk. Let me immediately note that the functionality of a regiment’s offensive during the first day of active combat operations is up to 10 km. During the first 24 hours in the gray zone, with the powerful support of artillery and tactical aviation, the advance of the ROV ranged from 1 to 3 km in different areas.
Only a week later, the Russian occupation forces were able to reach a depth of 10 kilometers – despite the fact that at that time the fighting was carried out not only with the resources of two regiments, but with attached units. In particular, in the direction of Volchansk, the assets of the 1st and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army are now being actively used, which (wow!) were transferred from the West Main Guards, which in turn affected the intensity military operations in the Kupyansk direction.
The forces of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD) are now operating in the direction of Liptsy. Moreover, the braking of the ROV strike forces occurred at the Glubokoe-Lukyantsy line without actually reaching Liptsy. The reason for this was the lack of reserves, which did not allow this tactical group to move further, and losses were not compensated in a timely manner.
This is due to the fact that Operation Imitation began when the 44th AK was not fully formed and staffed, and when the main strike force of this formation was not yet in the Belgorod region.
The Russian command rushed things in order to get their “offensive” on Kharkov in time for Putin’s visit to China and, as a result, they drove themselves into a trap. The result is a lack of real results and a waste of a significant resource, which is already critically limited.
It is possible that in the near future the ROV command will try to strengthen the direction to Liptsy with units from the Volchansky direction, but then the pressure on the city, which was planned to be captured in the first day of the Kharkov performance, will weaken.
Thus, a week later, the commander of the GV “North”, General Lapin, is forced to choose between Liptsy and Volchansk. Choose – which settlement, if not take first, then in which area near it at least maintain a high level of pressure.
All this again indicates that the ROV does not have sufficient forces to conduct operations even at such a functionally limited level. At the same time, this performance slowed down the development of events in the Kupyansk direction and significantly limited the capabilities of the “West” group of troops.
How events will develop
Russia will definitely try to present the military operations in the Kharkov region as something epic, victorious and global in the information flow. It is possible that to add scale to what is happening, Russian occupation troops may become more active in the Sumy region . But we look above at the composition of the Kursk military base and simply understand that this activation in the border zone will be less large-scale than in the Kharkov region.
Of course, there is no talk of any “offensive” on Sumy. What’s funny is that the Kursk group of troops would not have to share their forces and resources with the Belgorod main force to continue their performance, at least in the Volchansky direction.
On the other hand, if the ROV command makes such a decision (to continue the operation in the Kharkov region), then they may begin to redeploy units from other groups of troops in the combat zone. First of all, from the West Civil War.
It all depends on how long the Russians are ready to waste their resources in a meaningless meat grinder, which in fact has absolutely no practical significance in the database zone.
conclusions
Russia’s widely publicized “offensive” on Kharkov showed how poorly ROV is doing with available resources. When they talked about the Russian Army as something endless – both in terms of human resources and technology – I always gave in to doubts about these words (in terms of numbers). Everything has its end, and now Russia cannot carry out an operational-tactical operation without problems. And this has now become clearly visible from the results of the first week of hostilities.
The ROVs do not have free resources, which is why they are forced to limit the capabilities of other groups and reduce pressure in other directions. And the situation has no prospect of improvement unless the war is paused. And judging by the fact that the actions in the Kharkov region did not directly have global military goals, but rather political ones, we can conclude that this is the only survival option for Moscow – freezing the war.
Guderian used to say, Klotzen, nicht Kleckern, which basically means if you do something, do it right the first time. The ruskies are fascists, but they don’t do things right the first time, nor anytime afterward.
There is no direct translation of Guderian’s dictum. The thrust is more like “Hit ’em with a fist, don’t feel them with your fingers.”
“The colloquial expression means that someone shouldn’t spend time on little things, but rather puts in a lot of effort in the first place.”
https://www.aphorismen.de/zitat/57530
Getting an exact translation is difficult, but the one above is about right.