6.05.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

After Putin’s inauguration on May 7, Russia is expected to begin a process of intensified mobilization. By the end of 2024, the Russian command plans to mobilize 500 thousand people, which is quite realistic. But is it possible to provide such a quantity and fully equip it with equipment to effectively carry out combat missions? Let’s figure it out.

For the first time in all of 2023 and since the beginning of 2024, the contingent of Russian occupation forces in the combat zone in Ukraine has decreased. So, if at the beginning of March it was more than 465 thousand, at the beginning of April – 475 thousand, then as of the beginning of May – 460 thousand.

The Russian totalitarian regime has been able to mobilize from 25 to 30 thousand people every month since the beginning of this year. This amount, taking into account the average rate of DOM losses per month of 25-28 thousand, made it possible to both compensate for losses in the database area and accumulate a little additional resource – within + 10-15%. But as soon as the need arose to form new units, for example, a certain army corps, this lack of human resources immediately affected the numbers in the combat zone.

In this regard, mobilization in Russia becomes inevitable and inescapable, and the number of those mobilized in 2024 may reach 500 thousand. And this is a very real figure, if within a few months in Russia they will mobilize not 25-30 thousand people, but 50-60 thousand. And this amount will not overload the entire mobilization system as in 2022, when during the so-called partial mobilization 100 thousand per month were attracted and the entire system was literally bursting at the seams.

But speaking of such an influx of human resources, the question arises: what will this entire mass be like, how well will it be prepared and equipped, secured and staffed?

Resource quality

First of all, it is worth noting that the command of the Russian occupation forces will not aim to form professional units from those being mobilized, and most of them will not undergo the required three-month basic training. I am more than sure that the average mobs of the new wave will be in the DB zone within two weeks, and their main role will be as meat plug at the front.

And only from 15-20% of all those mobilized will new units be formed on a semi-professional basis – with their subsequent introduction into Ukraine.

That is, for the ROV command in the near future, it will be a priority to flood the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces with enough human resources to compensate not so much for losses, but for the lack of equipment at the front. And here, as they say, is the most interesting thing.

Standard equipment

The Russian military-industrial complex does not have time to fully satisfy the needs of the Russian army to obtain equipment to compensate for losses and at the same time fully equip units.

https://t.me/uaobozrevatel/115471

For example, as of the beginning of May 2024, the equipment shortage in the Russian troops is :

tanks – 50%;

BBM – 70%;

cannon artillery – 40%;

MLRS – 80%.

That is, the appearance of at least another 30 thousand people in the combat zone every month will require the regular supply of equipment to these units, which is already in short supply. In this way, the infantry component will grow, finally turning the Russian army into marching battalions.

conclusions

Russia has every opportunity to mobilize up to 500 thousand people by the end of the year. Of course, it will be impossible to fully prepare such a quantity, at least according to basic requirements, and to fully provide the units themselves with all the necessary equipment.

In fact, the Russian command will solve problems in the combat zone in Ukraine primarily with the infantry component, trying to dominate precisely by quantitative indicators.

This aspect should be taken into account, since the mass of infantry also has an advantage. And leveling it out, or rather, increasing the rate of effective destruction of manpower, will in the near future become an equally pressing topic.

The tools for increasing this indicator are well known – cluster munitions of all types (and not only). But here the question arises about the timeliness and mass supply of these instruments to Ukraine from international partners.

The main thing is that it should not be the case that the speed and mass supply of the ROV human resource exceed the speed and supply of tools to Ukraine for the annihilation of this resource.

The material was prepared as part of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the Information Resistance group.