27.07.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The answer of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky to the question of The Guardian regarding the temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula on the one hand sobered up the adherents of the cult “all is lost”, and on the other hand made the Russian occupiers even more worried. Crimea will be returned to Ukraine. But how is this possible? Yes, it is already happening, in case you haven’t noticed.
Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when I was asked whether it was possible to return the occupied territories diplomatically, I answered that such a chance was minimal, but it existed. In this case, the Luhansk region would return first, then Donetsk region, but the return of Crimea could take decades. But after the full-scale invasion, when asked about the military return of territories, I noted that the peninsula would be liberated before Luhansk and Donetsk regions. And I have not changed my opinion.
Crimea is indeed the most vulnerable link among all temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine – especially in comparison with Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which have hundreds of kilometers of common border with Russia and a very extensive logistics network. This allows the Russian occupiers to maintain a high level of logistical support for the troops no matter what happens.
The peninsula, even at first glance covered by the temporarily occupied left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, remains extremely vulnerable in terms of logistics and can be isolated even without the preliminary liberation of the mainland south. Moreover, this process of creating conditions for isolation is already in full swing.
The Black Sea Fleet has become a flotilla
In 2023, Russian occupiers began the process of withdrawing the Black Sea flotilla from the Crimean Peninsula to Novorossiysk (RF), and some ships were even sent to the Caspian Sea. This was a consequence of the systematic and methodical knocking out of the Russian flotilla from Crimea.
In 2014, the occupation of the peninsula was also due to the fact that Russia intended to use it as a base for its navy with subsequent control of the Black Sea. It was the Black Sea Fleet, now the flotilla, that was supposed to ensure the protection of Crimea from the sea borders, and it was this component that, since 2022, has been the main support for the occupiers in matters of ensuring the security of the peninsula.
As of the first half of 2024, the Crimean mainstay has been shamefully expelled from the peninsula with losses that the Black Sea Fleet has not suffered since World War II.
In essence, we can consider this to be a completed stage in the process of preparing the conditions for the liberation of Crimea.
Logistics
On October 8, 2022, the first successful operation was carried out to damage the Kerch Bridge, connecting the occupied peninsula with mainland Russia.
This bridge was and remains one of the main logistical arteries supplying the peninsula with both civil and military supplies.
The destruction of the Kerch Bridge would critically undermine the occupiers’ ability to provide logistical support to their group not only on the peninsula, but also in the mainland south, in particular in the left-bank Kherson region.
In turn, the destruction of logistics in the north of Crimea, in the area of Armyansk and Chongar, will allow, if not to isolate, then to significantly limit communications with the mainland south.
If these conditions are met, Crimea will find itself in a semi-isolated state. Why “semi”? Because there is the sea and air. But even here, not everything is so simple for the occupiers.
On the night of July 23, the Ukrainian Navy, together with other units of the Defense Forces, attacked the Slavyanin railway ferry in the port of Kavkaz. Slavyanin is the third and last railway ferry that Russia had in this region.
Before this, the Ukrainian Defense Forces methodically knocked out the large landing ships (LDS) of the Black Sea Flotilla, which were also used to transport military cargo.
While the final point in the issues of maritime logistics has not yet been made, most of the tasks in this category have already been solved.
As for the air component, the use of military transport aviation of the Russian occupation forces will only partially, in a limited way, be able to solve the issue of logistical support for the peninsula – with disrupted maritime logistics and destroyed bridges. But at present, the problem of air communication is not solvable, although this is temporary. The appearance of F-16s in the airspace will be the solution and the end of this issue.
Thus, the stage of cutting off Crimea’s logistics is in progress. The sea, land and air components are progressively neutralized, isolating the peninsula from the outside world.
Air space
In 2024, the process of destroying Russian air defense systems in Crimea intensified. In two and a half months, almost the entire long-range echelon on the peninsula lost its functionality.
There are no longer any fully functioning 12th and 18th anti-aircraft missile regiments (ZRP) or 3rd radio technical regiment on the peninsula. In fact, the northern, western, central and southern airspace of the Crimean Peninsula is a passageway not only for ballistic missiles, but also for subsonic weapons, as well as various types of UAVs.
In just two and a half months, the entire echeloned air defense in Crimea was completely destroyed, except for only one location – the southeastern one (in the area of the Kerch Bridge), where the remaining combat-ready assets were concentrated.
The destruction of the entire air defense component means that the peninsula loses its air protection, and the deployment of an air wing on its territory seems an extremely risky undertaking. After all, the furthest-ranged weapons can now reach their airfields (and not only, but we are talking about them foremost).
As a result, this will eventually force the ROV command to withdraw its air component from Crimea, so as not to expose it to the risk of regular destruction. Just as the Black Sea Flotilla was in this situation.
And this in the near future, after Ukraine receives F-16, will significantly simplify and secure operations using these fighters against targets on the peninsula. The absence of air defense and aviation on 80% of the territory of Crimea increases the effectiveness of strikes on Crimea, making them inevitable.
The stage of creating these conditions is in progress, but this is not even the middle of the path, but rather its actual final phase.
Conclusions
In the third year of the full-scale war, you and I regularly observed how the conditions for the liberation of Crimea were created. Not just a strike on the Kerch Bridge, which was and will be. Not just the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet and its displacement from Crimea. Not just the neutralization of the Crimean air defense and the accompanying displacement of the aviation component.
All this time, you and I have been and will be witnesses to the formation of a set of conditions that are now at different stages of implementation. But the essence is inevitable: the Russian occupation contingent in Crimea is gradually but surely becoming doomed to complete isolation. And after isolation, liberation will follow.
The material was published as part of a joint project between OBOZ.UA and the
Information Resistance group.
Yes, we’ve noticed the systematic removal of certain cockroach assets from Ukraine’s peninsula. But, that darned bridge must go ASAP!