Mar 15, 2024
PHOTO BY KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY IMAGES
President Joe Biden has gained a surprise narrow lead over Donald Trump in two polls, eight months before November’s presidential election, despite his approval rating sinking to an all-time low after his State of the Union (SOTU) address.
It was confirmed this week that there will be a rematch between the two politicians in the upcoming ballot after they both passed the nomination threshold, having won multiple presidential primaries.
Since then, political analysis has turned to who will come out on top, as they reenact their 2020 fight.
In two polls, it appears Biden might marginally beat his rival. One Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters found Biden would get 39 percent of the vote while Trump would get 38 percent. It was conducted between March 7 and 13 and the margin of error is +/- 1.8 percentage points.
A Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave the Democrat 45 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44 percent. This survey was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment on this story.
Biden delivered his SOTU speech last week and garnered positive reviews from a series of experts, and a good reaction from the American public, according to a poll.
He announced plans for the U.S. military to build a temporary pier on the Gaza coast to allow more humanitarian aid to reach the region.
Biden, 81, also used the speech to tackle concerns about his age, saying: “In my career I’ve been told I’m too young and I’m too old. Whether young or old, I’ve always known what endures.”
In general, polling has been quite split and the Democrat has led Trump in other national polls. One poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation showed Biden leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent. There were 1,072 registered voters surveyed between February 20 and 28 in this poll.
Others, however, have indicated that Trump will win. A March 3 to 5 poll of 1,450 registered voters by YouGov forecasts the former president to garner 44 percent of the vote share to Biden’s 42 percent.
And despite a positive response to his SOTU address, Biden’s approval rating sank afterwards to an all-time low of 37.4 percent, with his disapproval rating at 56.5 percent. Now, 38.4 percent of voters approve of the president, with 55.7 percent disapproving of him on March 15, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s national average calculations.
With eight months until the vote, and the margins so tight, a lot could change, not least because Trump is facing four criminal indictments which could affect his political career. He has denied wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty in all of his cases.
Speaking to Newsweek earlier this week about other polls that showed Biden in the lead, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, said: “I wouldn’t invest too much in any given poll or even a handful of polls. Both campaigns know this race is just about tied right now, will likely remain that way for a while, and are executing their strategies accordingly.”
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-latest-1879540
I know, the polls show a very slight lead for Biden and there is still a ways to go before the elections, but I still have hope for a Biden victory.
As a lifelong Republican, this is where I’m at, thanks to the orange jerk and his maga morons.
The article’s title was not chosen very carefully. It’s too much clickbait.
Good one! Biden is soooo supportive…
I see your sarcasm, Mike, and raise you a “which one of those old farts is worse”?
What is this article?
Biden is not leading by a lot, unfortunately. Apparently the U.S. is a nation with a lot of idiots and arsegivers.
It is even bizarre that Trump even has a chance.
^bert
Sure, Bert, but still, the fact remains that 81 year old Biden shouldn’t have run for a second term. The Damn party would be in a much better shape now if he had gracefully bowed out and made room for fresher minds. Too many Dem and Independent voters are concerned about the geriatric incumbent and don’t see unpopular Kamala Harris, who got rejected by her own African American constituency in the 2020 primaries, as someone who should take over in an emergency. If Biden doesn’t come to his senses and pick a popular leadership person like Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan is a battleground state!) for his ticket, he’ll lose the election. ☹
Indeed, Kamal the cackling goofball was a poor choice as VP from the very start. If she’s all he’s got, then the country is not only going down the drain, it’s already halfway on its way to the sewer.
I absolutely agree the Democrats should elect someone younger, don’t get me wrong.
But Trump and Biden are about the same age, so I don’t think age is a factor that people should consider when they make a vote between the two seniors.
I even think Biden’s life expectancy is higher as he isn’t overweight and apparently still does exercise.
But yes, it is beyond bizarre that a country with almost 400 million inhabitants has 80 years old candidates.
Even Bill Clinton that was a president in the 1990’s is younger than both of them.
^bert
I could gladly look beyond their ages if their brains were in order.
Age means nothing, look at Clinton.
Right you are!
I think Americans are slowly (painfully so) catching on that Trump is a Narcissistic lunatic.
Forget the MAGA types Trump could sacrifice babies to Satan and they would find a way to accept it,
They are a lost cause.
Biden has to solidify his base and sway the unaffiliated centrists. He just let trump keep running his mouth and not do anything stupid.
I agree. Many maga morons are just that, morons. No matter what the orange monkey says or does, no matter how juvenile, dumb, or wrong he is, they will still gladly slurp the saliva from his foul mouth and brag about it.
One issue with Biden is this:
“Biden indicates he would only serve one term as president: report” (The Hill, December 2019)
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474027-biden-indicates-he-will-only-serve-one-term-as-president-report/
Too many voters feel now like they had been played for suckers after the geriatric incumbent declared to run for a second term.
I also think that letting Biden run again was a huge mistake. But, fact is, he’s running, and although he’s far from being the best and strongest leader, he’s better than what the Republicans have waiting in their barn.
I do not want to defend Biden’s position by representing himself, in my opinion that is a mistake. but he did say “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running.” My feeling is that he assessed that no one else in his camp could match Trump. A lot can still happen between now and November…
What Biden assesses best is which ice cream he’ll have for desert.