Feb 22, 2024
WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
The Ukrainian air force’s swing-wing Sukhoi Su-24M/MR bombers are among its most potent assets.
Despite heavy losses there’s no risk of the bombers running out. The same can’t be said of their best munitions, however.
Fitted with missile pylons from old British bombers and firing British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles and similar, French-made SCALP-EGs as far as 200 miles, the two-seat Su-24s have struck supply depots, command posts, bridges, air-defense sites and warships. Usually in or around Russian-occupied Crimea in southern Ukraine.
The anti-ship strikes stand out. Ukraine’s sole Su-24 unit, the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade, single-handedly has blown up or sunk two Black Sea Fleet landing ships, a corvette, an old training ship and—incredibly—the submarine Rostov-on-Don while the sub was in dry-dock in Crimea.
The Russians fear the missile-armed Su-24s. It’s not for no reason that they regularly target the 7th Brigade’s bases, including its home base in Starokostyantyniv in western Ukraine—and also target the bombers in flight. In two years of hard fighting, the Russians have destroyed 18 Ukrainian Su-24s. That’s several more Su-24s than Ukraine had before Russia’s wider war kicked off in February 2022.
But as close observers long have suspected, the 7th Brigade under veteran commander Col. Yevhen Bulatsyk not only has made good its losses, it has expanded. In a recent interview with Voice of America, Bulatsyk confirmed that the brigade has more bombers now than it did two years ago.
How many more? “Much more,” is all Bulatsyk would say.
It’s no secret how the 7th Brigade, working closely with the wider air force as well as with Ukraine’s foreign allies, has managed to survive and even grow despite being one of Russia’s top targets.
It starts with “withdrawal from the attack when the airfields are threatened,” Bulatsyk said. In other words, dispersal. When Ukrainian radars or NATO satellites detect incoming missiles, the 7th Brigade scatters its bombers to outlying airfields or, potentially, even roads and highways.
It might be harder for a bomber crew to dodge Russian air-defenses missiles while they’re in the air. And indeed, almost all of the 18 bombers the 7th Brigade has lost were shot down. But most of the losses occurred before the brigade—presumably with a big assist from foreign technicians—began arming its Sukhois with Storm Shadows and SCALP-EGs last year.
The missiles travel far enough that an Su-24 can launch them from tens of miles behind Ukrainian lines and, with good intelligence, still strike Russian forces across all of occupied Crimea. Since the 7th Brigade pivoted from close bombing runs to long-range missile attacks, it has lost just a handful of Su-24s.
Even as the loss-rate dropped, the 7th Brigade’s technicians kept identifying unflyable Su-24s that could be rebuilt. “They continued to restore the equipment,” Bulatsyk said.
The Soviet air force had left behind in Ukraine at least a hundred of the supersonic bombers and potentially as many as 200. Even if just a few dozen are recoverable—and the rest useful only as sources of spares—the 7th Brigade should have enough airframes to stay in the fight for years.
And that helps to explain why Ukraine has not pushed terribly hard to acquire replacement bombers—ex-French Mirage 2000Ds, for instance. Sure, the 7th Brigade wouldn’t say no to a new type. But the supply of jets isn’t the brigade’s biggest problem.
No, it’s missiles the brigade most urgently needs. The 7th Brigade got a hundred or so Storm Shadow and SCALP-EGs last year and soon expended most of them.
France pledged another 40 SCALP-EGs in January. But the United Kingdom has not offered more Storm Shadows; the Royal Air Force is so worried about its own dwindling inventory of missiles that the U.K. government reportedly asked the German government to provide Taurus cruise missiles to the RAF so the RAF comfortably could part with more of its own Storm Shadows.
Germany of course could send Tauruses directly to Ukraine, but German chancellor Olaf Scholz consistently has opposed sending “escalatory” long-range munitions to Ukraine.
Barring a massive investment in missile-production by Ukraine’s allies, the 7th Brigade always will be on the edge of running out of missiles. Even when it has plenty of bombers to launch them.
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Olaf Scholz, Germany’s main naive fool and top political clown, still hasn’t grasped the fact that NOT sending long-range weapons will escalate mafia land’s aggression. But, once Ukraine as a buffer is gone and Poland overrun, and his Bundeswehr must dig trenches before Berlin, it’s already game over.
This is a valuable lesson for voters; don’t vote naive fools and spineless cowards into top offices.
I have the feeling the information in this article is dated, as Scholz seems to have changed his mind.
About what voters should do: the alternatives weren’t much better, as the conservative guy was openly pro-Russian.
Only that Green lady would have done better I think.
^bert
The green lady, who couldn’t even write her own book without plagiarizing other content? She simply would have shown other weaknesses than Scholz, I think. She’s well meaning, but too often supports woke nonsense instead of focussing on realpolitik. Not really a wartime leader, neither.
In defence of German voters (and I am one, too): They didn’t have a great choice. The front runners were one embarassing joke teller, a naive girl, and effing Olaf Scholz. The former prime minister of the city state Hamburg was actually the one who most convincingly pretended he would do a decent job. And in peaceful times, it would have been ok, I guess. Just not good enough for the higher demands of wartime. 🙁
Well, in defense of Germany, we have the choice between Biden and Trump out of 330 million, I guess I can’t expect more from 80 million.
Actually, both situations are deplorable, when we see the good leaders that Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia have with tiny populations.
Magnificent!
Ukrainians are well known for their resourcefulness and improvisational skills and this is the proof.
As for the Storms, it takes days to make just one of them; the actual details are secret. But unfortunately they are in very short supply. I don’t know whether the manufacturers tooled up for mass production or not, but they really should do.
The U.K. defence industry is renowned for good quality, but has been allowed to run down from its previous dominance by successive governments over decades. Time to reverse this decline urgently.
Indeed, and time to rearm.