30.06.2026
Due to large-scale effective attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the aggressor country
Russia was forced to resort to extraordinary steps. Air defense systems are concentrated in Moscow, as well as around the Kerch Bridge, which remains almost the only permanent logistical artery connecting Russia with the temporarily occupied Crimea. Despite the fact that the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin personally ordered to provide Crimea with fuel at any cost, this is impossible for objective reasons, and the enemy’s problems on the peninsula will grow.
The enormous danger to the Kerch Bridge is associated not only with the actions of the Defense Forces, but also with those of natural forces, as this structure is located in a seismically active region. The statistics of large-scale earthquakes in the Black Sea area indicate that something similar may happen in the near future.
Military expert Vladislav Seleznyov told this in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Due to the active strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on facilities on the territory of Russia, the enemy has concentrated the largest number of air defense assets in two locations: Moscow and the Kerch Bridge. Do you assume that because of this, a very large part of the Russian Federation’s military facilities have actually remained defenseless against our means of destruction?
– I think that we still need to look at this story through the prism of a certain deja vu, because information from Ukrainian intelligence that the enemy is constantly transferring additional air defense systems to the territory of the Russian Federation, Moscow and the Moscow region is not news. This process has been going on for quite a long time. The same is happening with regard to the temporarily occupied Crimean peninsula, with an emphasis, first of all, on the Kerch Bridge. As is known, the Kerch Bridge structure is protected by at least two air defense brigades. One unit is located on the Kerch Peninsula, the other on the Taman Peninsula
Therefore, they are putting a lot of effort and resources into protecting the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, from the influence of Ukrainian drones and missiles.
The other day, during a meeting on fuel supply to various Russian regions, President Putin noted that the first thing the Russian government will focus on to solve this problem is increasing the number of air defense systems. It would seem, where is the logic in this? There is no fuel, and Putin is talking about creating a powerful air defense system. But no.
The Russian dictator understands that without sufficient air defense, Russia, including the regions most important to Putin, will be vulnerable to the influence of Ukrainian drones and missiles. Under such conditions, the situation that we are currently observing in the area of the Kerch Bridge is very symptomatic. The enemy understands that his facilities are extremely vulnerable due to the fact that we are systematically destroying the logistical transport of the enemy army, which moves along the R-280 route, due to the fact that we are constantly destroying elements of the railway infrastructure, railway bridges over rivers and canals, etc. – that is, everything that the enemy will be forced to restore for a fairly long time.
The enemy has powerful units engaged in repair and restoration, but due to the fact that we continue to act, he understands that the Kerch Bridge is becoming increasingly important to him, because the railway lines and ferries that carried out transportation across the Kerch Strait are destroyed and require long-term repairs. Not a single railway ferry remains, out of five car ferries, only two remain in operation. According to the most encouraging estimates, the first railway ferry may appear in the Russians no earlier than the beginning of September. That is, now the use of railway ferry services across the Kerch Strait is paralyzed.
Because the Kerch Bridge is vulnerable and has certain flaws due to previous attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the Russians do not dare to transport trains with explosives and petroleum products over it.
Similarly, the Kerch Bridge does not allow large-sized equipment or trucks, but only passenger cars, with the exception of electric trains, buses and a certain group of logistics transport, but with a small carrying capacity. This is all that allows movement across the Kerch Strait. Moreover, this traffic is also superimposed on tourist traffic, because there are also those who want to relax in the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea. Thus, the traffic is considerable.
Under such conditions, the enemy understands that its logistics are vulnerable due to the fact that the only permanent connection that currently exists between Russia and Crimea is through the Kerch Bridge. Therefore, the enemy is making efforts not only to strengthen air defense, but also to create structures that would protect the supports of the Kerch Bridge from Ukrainian drones – both surface and underwater.
Yesterday (June 28. – Ed.) Putin held an emergency meeting and set the task of providing Crimea with fuel and lubricants, using land and sea. What the enemy will use to carry out such transportation, I do not know for sure, because any tanker standing in the appropriate place is extremely vulnerable. Moreover, the terminal in Feodosia, which can receive tankers and load fuel and lubricants, was seriously damaged as a result of a series of attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. It is also extremely dangerous to bring tankers into the Sevastopol Bay, because de facto in the northwestern part of the sea, the Ukrainian Navy has total dominance. Therefore, these tankers can become an excellent target for Ukrainian drones, and no Russian warships are likely to help here.
In any case, we must understand that now the struggle for Crimea has turned, first of all, into a struggle for control over logistical routes. The Ukrainian army is demonstrating impressive results, each time destroying any attempts by the enemy to establish stable and uninterrupted logistics.
– Not only the military, but even geologists emphasize the vulnerability of the Kerch Bridge, primarily because this structure is located in a seismically active zone. Every earthquake, even a small one, has a destructive effect on the bridge’s supports, so according to scientists’ forecasts, sooner or later this structure will collapse at least due to natural causes, not to mention strikes by Ukrainian drones and missiles. In your opinion, if the bridge is not built in one way or another, will this mean the transformation of Crimea into an island?
– It so happened historically that your opposite number once dreamed of becoming a geography teacher. Therefore, I studied this case, in particular, the processes related to seismic activity in the Crimean peninsula, more than my peers.
The problem of the Crimean peninsula is that it is located in a seismically dangerous region. Just last week, a series of earthquakes occurred. With some periodicity, a fatal earthquake occurs in this region. Suffice it to recall the huge earthquake of 1927, which destroyed many houses on the southern coast of Crimea.
Many well-known seismologists report that the risks have been increasing recently, and in a few years a powerful earthquake may occur in this region. Let’s recall at least the large-scale earthquake that occurred 250-300 kilometers south of Turkey. That is, you are absolutely right. This region is very dangerous for such a shaky structure as the Kerch Bridge.
Moreover, it was built on so-called floating grounds, i.e. unstable soils, which also create certain problems for its functioning. I think that, first of all, this is connected with the enemy’s attempt not to load the Kerch Bridge as much as possible, i.e. to avoid the passage of huge military and other echelons over the bridge, because a single load of this structure weighing up to 50 thousand tons can lead to the destruction of the entire bridge.
As soon as the enemy loses the ability to use the Kerch Bridge, he will find himself in a situation of absolute transport collapse, because the ferry connection does not work. Military transport connections exist, but the volume of transportation there does not allow to fully meet the needs of not only the Russian group in the territory of Crimea, but also those Russian servicemen who are partially located in the territory of Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
The use of any ships that could enter the Black Sea and deliver cargo to the appropriate bases or destinations on the Crimean peninsula is also a very dangerous story, because Ukrainian embargoes work, as do other formats and options for using drone systems, for example, the same active operations unit. Therefore, the enemy de facto finds himself in a trap .
Currently, the enemy does not have a solution that would allow for maximum protection of the R-280 highway, which runs from Taganrog to Melitopol, because there is not enough of the appropriate amount of resources, in particular air defense means, and other options are not effective. We are literally burning with our “Hornets” all military equipment, logistics equipment, which is trying to provide logistics both in the south of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, and on the territory of the Crimean peninsula.
The only thing I warn you against is that you shouldn’t expect that all this will fall apart tomorrow, that the Russians will raise their paws up and say: we can’t continue to drag Crimea on ourselves, it’s like a suitcase without a handle for us, it’s hard to carry, it’s a shame to throw it away, let’s negotiate something. This process is long-term. As the Navy spokesman, Mr. Pletenchuk, said, the option related to the deoccupation of Crimea is a strategic-level military operation that is prolonged in time. For a long time before that, the Ukrainian army monitored, scouted military facilities, air defense systems in Crimea and destroyed them. To replace them, the enemy imported additional systems, and we destroyed them in the same way.
Now the situation is favorable for us to some extent, because we managed to destroy a lot of resources, and the enemy does not have time to adequately respond to challenges due to a certain lack of resources. But this does not mean that tomorrow the enemy will not collect additional resources from other regions of the Russian Federation to strengthen this area or section of the front, which is definitely a priority for him.
The front is currently quite active, a clear indication of this is the formation of the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I think that not only because of the weather that prevails in Crimea these days, but also because of the activity of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, we can affirmatively state that it will be hellish in Crimea this year. My insiders from Crimea and Sevastopol say that the enemy has serious problems. First of all, for ordinary residents.
The occupying power, which, according to international conventions, should take care of issues of sustainable provision for the population in the occupied territories, is unable to do so due to a lack of opportunities and resources.
We cannot wait for Mother Nature to destroy the bridge with an earthquake. The bridge must be destroyed by humans, when the time is right.