April 29, 2024
Russian forces are unlikely to achieve “operationally significant penetration” in the area west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, despite limited Ukrainian troop withdrawals in surrounding villages, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 28.
Amid intense fighting, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on April 28 that Ukrainian troops retreated west from the villages of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka, west of occupied Avdiivka.
Earlier in the day, Syrskyi said that Ukraine will conduct unit rotations targeting the area, in an effort to “restore combat capability” and combat fatigue of soldiers along the front.
Despite the Ukrainian retreats, the ISW notes that without additional Russian troop to combat Ukraine’s anticipated rotations, Russia’s ability to make additional rapid tactical advances in the area would likely be constrained.
“The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional materiel will force the Russian command to either accept that a near-term wider or deeper penetration is unlikely, or commit additional reserves to the area to continue pursuing tactical gains,” the ISW report notes.
The ISW currently observes that the Ukrainian withdrawals from Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka “have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains.”
The observations echos a statement from Syrskyi that claims that while Russia has succeeded with marginal advances in forcing the Ukrainians to retreat, Russia “has failed to achieve an operational advantage.”
Russia continues to intensify its attacks along the front as Ukraine faces ammunition and air defense shortages, prioritizing operation to seize Chasiv Yar, with as many as 20,000 to 25,000 Russian troops are attempting to storm Chasiv Yar and surrounding settlements. Chasiv Yar is located approximately 50 kilometers north of Avdiivka.
That sounds great, but I’m afraid there’s some wishful thinking involved. Let’s be aware, the increased mobilisation is only about to start, and it will take months to make recruits even remotely combat ready. So, for the time being, the AFU has to stop the Russian advance without significant reinforcements. The only way to do that is by substituting manpower by more arms and ammunition. But while the first new delivery of the US is on the way, it probably doesn’t include enough heavy weapons to make such a big difference. So, the next package can’t be allowed to take months, there’s urgent need to send more Bradleys, M109s and other heavy hitting vehicles in the next weeks. And other Nato nations have to weigh in more strongly now, too, after a rather weak start into the year. They shouldn’t forget, should Ukraine fall, the risk of WWIII rises dangerously!
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I have plenty of confidence about this, Mr. Gray. Everybody and their dogs predicted Ukraine to fall within one or two weeks after the invasion started to roll, and here we are over two years later.