June 24, 2023
The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD.
Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force. Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state-owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders. The Kremlin struggled to respond quickly in the information space and residents in Rostov-on-Don residents did not oppose Wagner and in some cases greeted them warmly – not inherently demonstrating opposition to Putin but at minimum acceptance of Prigozhin’s actions. Finally, the Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s move does not reflect well on Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB. Prigozhin consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian MoD prior to his armed rebellion and Putin failed to mitigate this risk. We cannot and will not speculate on the concrete impacts of Prigozhin’s rebellion and the Kremlin’s weak response, and are not forecasting an imminent collapse of the Russian government, as some have done. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 – though not necessarily the Prigozhin/Kremlin struggle writ large – will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
By OFP
Maybe … just maybe … the mafia “generals” will learn something out of this and stop this senseless war and they themselves march on Moscow? Who would stop them? But, this would require foresight, intelligence, and courage. We’ve seen that they lack all of those personal traits.
My theory is Prickozhin accused both Shoigu and Gerasimov of invading Ukraine to share the spoils, along with Putler, and Prickozhin wasn’t invited to the share out. I might be wrong, but you have to think like a criminal when dealing with trash like Prickozhin.
I admit, that I have great difficulties to think that way.
Yeah, I guess it will remain one of life’s mysteries, especially if Shoigu and Gerasimov stay in power.
What really puzzles me is the question will the Wagners continue to fight Ukraine? Their leader was exiled to Belarus and none of his demands were met so far. And why hasn’t the AFU taken more advantage of the situation? I don’t want to play into Putin’s hands or call everything a scam run by oligarchs, but in a certain sense the USSR seems to be still alive…
I’m just as puzzled by Kyiv’s thumb-twirling as you, Mike.
It was sounding to me like wagz in exchange for amnesty are having to sign with the MOD.
However their headquarters was raided also former and current members that fsb can get a hold of as well as their families are being intimidated and harassed. That and in addition to prick loyalists not liking the command change as well as a high degree of likelihood their provisions won’t be as high quality, and or their pay will be cut or disrupted, I expect many of them to continue be and increasingly become more disgruntled. But just my take and opinion on it.
That is a good question, I suspect we’ll know soon. Also, Shoigu said Wagner contracts were illegal and they must sign with the Z zombies by the first of July. I would think about half would stay home and not even rist going back to prison and a chunk won’t fight without Prickozhin.
A lot of the other commenters on other discussion threads seem to think it was all “staged,” but if so, this would require putin’s cooperation with fleeing to some hidden lair, and for prigozhin to give up the moment putin wasn’t a threat anymore. Granted, prigozhin’s being encouraged to join the mobster of belarus, but he had the bigger opportunity with moscow, and a sizable number of presumably loyal supporters. Then he takes up lukashenko’s offer of “retirement” in belarus? lol
Not to mention, that the only benefit we can assume putin has now, is that the world can’t scream against him in his anonymity.
Ukraine can breathe for a bit, but will also need to press their advantage in this, forcing the remaining invaders out and reclaiming all their previous territory. Only then, can they rebuild and rest, though to remain ever vigilant against threats. Maybe china will try taking over parts of eastern russia while the kremlin tries a change of power.