Svitlana Moronets

Aug 30, 2024

Disturbing reports are emerging from the Donetsk region. Ukrainian troops are retreating so quickly that the Russians are surprised by their own advances. ‘The Ukrainians are practically handing over key towns to us and pulling back their reserves,’ Ilya Yansen, Russian military blogger, wrote as Russian forces marched through several villages and entered the city of Selydove in just a few days. ‘Something feels off here,’ he added. Other Russian commentators are also cautious, wondering whether Kyiv has a larger plan. Could it really be this easy to take Ukrainian land?

At a press conference in Kyiv this week, Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to have a distorted awareness of the alarming situation in Donbas. While focusing on the Kursk incursion, he was confronted with a pointed question: ‘What favourable conditions of the Kursk offensive can be discussed while the defence of the key city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk remains unstable?’ Confident in his response, Zelensky claimed that Russian troops were advancing faster toward the city before the Kursk operation started. This claim is deeply concerning – because it’s not true.

This month alone, Russian troops have seized more than two dozen settlements in the Donetsk region. They are now about five miles from Pokrovsk, a key railway and logistics hub in the western Donbas. Around 38,000 people remain in the city, including 1,900 children, which is about half of the pre-war population. Local authorities are urging residents to evacuate the city immediately; people are leaving their homes and belongings behind. Businesses are shutting down and banks will close by the end of the week.

The soldiers left to defend the city are criticising Zelensky and Oleksandr Syrskyi, chief of the army, for deploying battle-hardened brigades to the Kursk region. They predict Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did, given the lack of men and shells in Ukrainian ranks. Losing the city would jeopardise not only Ukraine’s remaining strongholds in the Donetsk region, but could also open the door for Russian forces to advance toward Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city.

Zelensky says there is little difference in how many brigades – whether ‘three or five’ – are assigned to defend the Pokrovsk direction, given that Moscow has significantly more forces. ‘It’s not just a matter of “you send a hundred thousand and we send a hundred thousand”. We’ve already had one such operation. I believe that’s wrong,’ Zelensky said. He believes Kyiv must think about where these brigades will be most effective. He said Ukraine must be in a strong position at the peace summit in November, and ‘success is very badly needed’. The Kursk offensive is supposed to be key to this success.

Ukraine allegedly has several well-trained brigades that have not yet been deployed. Russian military bloggers speculate that these forces are being ‘saved for something more significant’ than the Pokrovsk front. On one hand, it’s reassuring that Kyiv’s strategies remain unknown and that the surprise Kursk offensive has been successful so far. On the other, the dire situation in Pokrovsk casts doubt on Ukraine’s military leadership, leaving Ukrainians questioning whether Zelensky truly understands the stakes – and the risks – of his gamble.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky will present a ‘victory plan’ to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump next month.
• The Ukrainian President said the Kursk operation is ‘one of the key points’ which will ‘force Russia to end the war through diplomacy’. Ukrainians have reportedly captured some 500 square miles of Russian territory.
• The Kremlin says negotiations with Ukraine have lost their relevance because of the Kursk incursion.
• Russia launched its largest-ever aerial attack against Ukraine on Monday, using more than 200 missiles and drones to damage energy infrastructure. Ukrainians have suffered severe blackouts.
• Kyiv will present top US officials with a list of targets inside Russia that Ukraine could strike if it were allowed to use American-supplied long-range weapons.
• Ukraine has carried out a successful test of the first domestic-made ballistic missile, which allegedly has a range of up to 430 miles.
• The UK government reportedly backs Ukraine using Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia – but will not say so publicly, fearing disagreement with the US.
• Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov region. At least three of the facilities were set on fire in Russia this week.
• A Reuters journalist is in a critical condition after a Russian strike on a hotel in the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk. Ryan Evans, a British safety adviser for the agency, was killed in the attack.
• Ukraine will resume construction of the previously abandoned Chyhyryn nuclear power plant in the Cherkasy region.
• Allies have advised Poland to exercise restraint when dealing with ‘unidentified violations’ of Polish airspace, often caused by Russian drones.
• Hungary does ‘not want more weapons in Ukraine’ or ‘an escalation of the war’, the country’s foreign minister said. He visited Russia the next day.

Wider reading on the war

Zelensky says Kursk offensive is collateral in a victory plan – The Spectator

Ukraine counts on new long-range weapon to bypass western restrictions and hit deep into Russia – Associated Press

Ukraine to present Biden admin with targets it could hit in Russia – Politico

The phantom drone squad key to Ukraine’s Russian incursion – Times

Is Telegram, Ukraine’s most popular messenger app, a Russian Trojan horse? – Kyiv Independent

In pictures

Shepetivka, Khmelnytsky region: The mother of Oleksii Mes, 30, a top Ukrainian pilot who was killed when a F-16 fighter jet crashed during Russia’s attack on Monday, accepts the posthumous military rank of colonel awarded to her son. Ukraine has received just six jets so far. (Credit: Ukraine’s Air Force)

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Quote of the week

‘They don’t want to talk about it, and I keep bringing it up.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky said that he keeps pushing western allies to lift the ban on the use of weapons inside Russian territory.

The war in numbers:

Russian troops redeployed to Kursk region:

30,000

Moscow keeps its most combat-ready units in the Pokrovsk sector

Undeclared weapons owned by Ukrainian citizens:

2 to 5 million

Many were issued at the start of the war or were taken from battlefields

Ukraine to face budget gap next year:

£27 billion

the government plans tax increases and more borrowing on the domestic debt market

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk