Svitlana Moronets

Feb 2, 2024

At first, reports that Ukraine’s hugely popular armed forces commander, Valery Zaluzhny, had been fired were thought to be Russian-sponsored fake news. A split between Volodymyr Zelensky and Zaluzhny would fracture the unity that has marked Kyiv’s war effort, so it looked like the kind of story that Moscow would promote. But days later, there seems to be all too much truth to it. Russia is planning to send 400,000 more men to the meat grinder of eastern Ukraine: Zaluzhny wants to counter this by recruiting 500,000 more Ukrainians. President Zelensky doesn’t think this is doable – hence the clash between the two most important men in Ukraine.

Word is that on Monday, Zelensky told Zaluzhny that he was being fired: that Ukrainians have grown tired of the war and that western allies have slowed their military assistance, so perhaps a new commander would kickstart Ukraine’s war effort. Zaluzhny was still in the post at the time of writing this newsletter, but it’s starting to look like there will be an official announcement of his dismissal within days.

The backlash against Zelensky hasn’t stopped. Zaluzhny, 50, has been leading Ukraine’s forces since July 2021 and has earned his reputation as the iron general and a national hero during the full-scale war. Ninety-two per cent of Ukrainians say they trust him (compared with Zelensky’s 62 per cent), and 72 per cent would react negatively if he were sacked, according to a December poll. Many believe Zelensky is jealous of him and that he sees Zaluzhny as a rival in future elections.

When the news broke, Ukrainian social media was flooded with posts supporting the general, written by civilians, soldiers, journalists, politicians and many more. There were even calls to start rallies against his dismissal, although these are prohibited during martial law.

The number of disagreements between the pair has rapidly grown since last autumn, when the counteroffensive ended with modest gains. Zaluzhny told the Economist magazine at the time that the fighting had hit a ‘stalemate’ (a statement Zelensky furiously rushed to debunk). Now, the Washington Post, citing its sources in the government, reports that the two have different visions of the war strategy Ukraine must choose for this year. Zaluzhny wants to mobilise nearly 500,000 troops, which Zelensky sees as impractical given the shortage of uniforms, guns and training facilities, along with the challenges facing conscription. The Ukrainian President has also publicly said that mobilising such a large number of people would cost Ukraine at least £10 billion – and that doesn’t factor in the economic impact of a reduced workforce. Ukraine is not permitted to use western aid for soldiers’ payments.

Zaluzhny, on the other side, insists that Ukraine lacks troops and must counter Russia’s planned mobilisation of 400,000 more soldiers. Personnel I have talked to confirm that manpower shortages have already started taking a toll on the battlefield, with Russian forces making advances in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and eastern Kharkiv Oblast towards Pishchane and Berestove villages in the last two weeks.

There are two versions of why Zaluzhny still remains in office. According to the first, western allies disapproved of his sacking because they have strongly advised Kyiv to switch to strategic defence this year – a stance supported by Zaluzhny. The second reason is the problem with finding someone to take his place. Two contenders are Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, and Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Ground Forces, although neither general is eager to occupy Zaluzhny’s seat and have reportedly refused this appointment already. The issue is that any new face will inevitably be compared with the old and much-loved Zaluzhny, and will be potentially seen as merely Zelensky’s appointee, irrespective of their military experience and achievements.

Nevertheless, it seems that Zaluzhny’s sacking is merely a matter of time. The intensifying disagreements between the two do nothing for a country fighting a war. Zelensky, as the supreme commander-in-chief, bears the responsibility for the outcome of this war and must put the country’s interests ahead of worrying about approval ratings. Firing Zaluzhny is within the power and the right of a wartime president – but if Zaluzhny’s dismissal brings no good for Ukraine, it’s on Zelensky too.

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Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky will reportedly announce the dismissal of Ukraine’s popular top army commander within days. More below.
• All 27 EU leaders have agreed​ on a €50bn aid package for Ukraine. The EU also plansto train 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of the summer.
• Five EU leaders have written a joint lettercalling for an immediate increase in weapons support to Ukraine after it was revealed that only 330,000 of a promised one million artillery shells have been delivered.
• Ukraine’s parliament has received an updated draft law on mobilisation. It suggests replacing mandatory conscription for citizens aged 18-24 with a five-month military training programme, among other changes.
• Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine will run out of steam in early spring, according to Ukraine’s intelligence chief. However, Kyrylo Budanov acknowledged that Russian troops have made ‘some advances’ near Avdiivka, in Donetsk Oblast.
• The UK House of Lords has criticised the failure of the government to spend £2.5bn in frozen funds from Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich on aid for Ukraine. Almost 20 months later, the funds – from the sale of Chelsea football club – remain in a bank account in the UK.
• The Pentagon has successfully tested a new 90 mile-range precision missile for Ukraine. It is expected to arrive on the battlefield this week. 
• Russia shows no willingness to return the bodies of Ukrainian POWs allegedly killed in an Il-76 plane crash last week, according to Ukrainian intelligence. No proof of POWs in the wreckage has been found, despite Russia’s claims.
• Ukraine is exclusively using its own gas supply for the first time in its history, after it opened new gas wells and increasedproduction by 11%. Ukraine also enters the third winter month with a stable energy sector and blackouts being rare.
• Almost 900 men in Volyn Oblast alone could have illegally fled Ukraine to avoid mobilisation with assistance from local NGOs, Ukrainian Pravda has found.
• Joe Biden will be able to skirt congressional opposition to Ukraine aid by donating weapons to Greece, which can then donate its own surplus equipment to Kyiv, Forbes has reported.
• Ukraine has scored 36 points out of 100 in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index and ranks 104th out of 180 countries in the annual rating by Transparency International. Ukraine’s growth by three points is one of the best results in the world over the past year.
• The International Court of Justice in the Hague has dismissed several crucial aspects of Ukraine’s case against Russia, including a request that Russia pay reparations for attacks carried out by its forces and its proxies in Donbas after the beginning of the war in 2014.

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Wider reading on the war

​​Inside Ukraine’s plan to arm itself – Simon Shuster (Time)

Hold, build, and strike: a vision for rebuilding Ukraine’s advantage in 2024 – Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, Dara Massicot (War on the Rocks)

With aid stalled, Ukraine scrambles to make ends meet – Andrew E. Kramer (NYT)

Russian commanders face prosecution for starving Mariupol – Roland Oliphant (Telegraph)

For Europe and NATO, a Russian invasion is no longer unthinkable – Lara Jakes, Christina Anderson (NYT)

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In pictures

Uzhhorod: Ukrainian top officials meet with Hungary’s foreign minister in an effort to normalise relations between the two countries and prepare for a potential meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Viktor Orban. Budapest has presented an 11-point request on Hungarian minority rights, stating that a meeting won’t occur until Ukraine fulfils it. (Office of the President)

Quote of the week

‘Zaluzhny is now too big to get kicked out. [His dismissal will be] a shot in the head. The apocalyptic rampage that is taking place now amid rumours on Telegram is just a walk in the park compared to what would be happening if Zelensky really signs a dismissal order. That’s the system somewhat balancing itself in a country where public opinion is vivid and fierce enough.’

– Illia Ponomarenko, Ukrainian journalist, on Twitter

The war in numbers

Value of frozen Russian foreign reserves in Euroclear depository

€191bn

The EU says it will use profits from the fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction

POWs swapped this week between Ukraine and Russia

207

The 50th exchange since the invasion

Russian shells from domestic production and North Korean imports

3.5 million

Ukraine’s allies are a third short on their target of a million donated shells.

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk