3.09.2025
Despite the intensification of offensive operations, the Russian occupation army has not achieved any success at the front . In particular, an attempt to break through the front in the Dobropillya area failed, where the enemy was counting on a quick and easy advance with a “flag hoisting” – the installation of the flag of the aggressor country in Ukrainian settlements. But the reality turned out to be different. The occupation units were not at all ready to effectively repel the attack by the Defense Forces. At the same time, in recent weeks, we can observe how some previously occupied areas in the east and southeast are being liberated by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. We can confidently predict: at least by the end of this year, the enemy troops will not be able to fulfill their number one task – to completely occupy the Donetsk region within its administrative borders.
As for the operation to detain the possible murderer of People’s Deputy Andriy Parubiy , it was truly unique. The criminal was actually caught “red-handed”, even though he managed to get rid of all the evidence of the crime he committed. The success was made possible thanks to the coordination of hundreds of law enforcement officers. The key work was carried out by units of the National Police, and the SBU provided technical support for the operation.
This was stated by former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Could you comment on the latest trends on the front, which, in particular, were noted by the American Institute for the Study of War: on August 31, Russian troops intensified offensive operations , but at the same time did not achieve any successes. Also, for several weeks in a row, we have been observing that certain occupied areas of the front in the east and southeast of the country are being liberated by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Do you see any signs, even the slightest, that the situation on the front is at least stabilizing?
– I really want to give good news, but I will be very careful. There are local successes of Ukraine, without exaggeration, there are facts of repelling the Russians near Kupyansk, the situation has improved a little near Pokrovsk, Dobropillya and beyond. But I would not rush to say that this is already one hundred percent stabilization, because it would be very premature.
At the same time, it shows that, firstly, we have the ability to repel attacks, and, secondly, that the Russian offensive advance groups are not very well equipped. They often rely on jumping in, waving, capturing, planting their flag, and running on.
– You probably meant the occupier’s attempt to break through in the Dobropillya area?
– Yes. This attack was not prepared and was not supported. These were certain advanced units that jumped in with the calculation that if we were here now, the Ukrainians would roll back. They did not expect that Ukraine would knock them out. And as soon as they started to knock them out, it immediately became clear that no one supported these Russians. No one came to their aid, and they were not ready for such a retaliatory strike from Ukraine. That is, they expected to easily enter and declare these territories the Russian Federation.
– Even Z-bloggers in Russia started talking about the lack of any noticeable successes. In particular, they criticized Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army, for exaggerating the successes of the Russian Army at the front. In particular, Gerasimov announced the capture of 3.5 thousand square kilometers and 149 settlements, but this is not the case. He also stated that the occupiers had allegedly already captured “half of Kupyansk,” although it was not even close. Do you think this is also good news for us?
– Yes, this is good news. We assume that this story, called “flag-waving”, is indeed widespread and actively cultivated in Russia. We understand that Gerasimov can make such statements on the basis of summaries, reports from the very bottom. After all, while they are gradually going up, they are combed, rounded off a little, corrected, and in fact a completely new picture emerges at the top that does not correspond to reality.
But, as an option, it could be a show for the Americans. To show, they say, that we have captured a lot here, so put pressure on Ukraine as soon as possible, let it give up the rest of the territory, because there are such little things left there, let it go beyond the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. If I were them, I would play like this. Exaggerate your achievements and incite the other side to convince Ukraine to leave these territories. And no one would listen to Ukraine anymore.
– But the Americans have their own intelligence officers, including military intelligence officers. If I’m not mistaken, Trump took one of his military intelligence officers with him to the meeting with Putin in Alaska. I think they were comparing maps of combat operations there.
– Exactly, we could compete with each other to see who had more maps.
– Indeed, the Kremlin wants to show off its own achievements, including to the Americans and Trump, but if you just look at the map of the fighting, you can see that they are still very far from capturing the entire Donetsk region within its administrative borders. In your opinion, can the occupier accomplish this number one task by the end of this year?
– I think I won’t be too unfounded if I say that they really won’t be able to capture the Donetsk region by the end of the year. For this to happen, all our troops must simply get up and go. Because really, this is a difficult section of the front, the territory is difficult, there are reservoirs, small rivers, quarries, mines, something is working, something is flooded, urban development. It’s all hard to take. It turns out that they have to simply demolish every building, dismantle it, and only then can they advance.
Therefore, I really don’t see how by the end of the year it is possible to capture the entire Donetsk region, with what forces. But in the Dnipropetrovsk region they can do us harm. There are certain advances there. There are attempts to reach Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhia. Therefore, it is not only about the Donetsk region, but also about others.
– The last question on a different topic, about the murder of Andriy Parubiy. It took only 36 hours for our law enforcement agencies, in particular the SBU, to detain the criminal. Why did this happen? How, purely technically, can you so quickly track down a person who has lost the murder weapon, clothing, and other evidence?
– Without any unnecessary compliments, but really well done, they were detained in 36 hours. In general, 72 hours is considered the “gold standard”. The criminal was detained almost “red-handed.”
This is a huge job, hundreds of people worked. Of course, the huge work was done by the National Police, and the SBU already assisted with technical means, calculated triangulation, telephones, etc. People quickly interviewed all possible and impossible witnesses. They quickly, comprehensively, systematically processed the video surveillance cameras, analyzed where this motorcyclist went, in which direction. And traced him to his location in the Khmelnytskyi region. This is work with people, this is work with equipment.
Plus, obtaining a huge number of paper court permits for conducting examinations and criminal proceedings. It all opens up quickly, everything is done in parallel. After all, everything must be documented, otherwise the case may fall apart in court.
– Mr. Ivan, did I understand correctly: the criminal did not lose his phone, and this was his mistake?
– No, it was reported that he lost his phone, but he had another one. And here is a very technical story: either it was activated earlier – and that’s how they figured it out, or it was constantly turned off – and after he lost the first one, he got the second one, turned it on and started using it. That is, there was no single clue how they figured it out. There was a complex. One, two, three. People were interviewed. Someone saw where this motorcyclist went, someone saw how he, perhaps, burned these clothes, and reported it to law enforcement. That is, a huge amount of work was done there.