07/1/2026
Apparently, a turning point is approaching in the war in Ukraine, and now “the actions of the Ukrainian command will depend” on the further successes of the Ukrainian defenders in the counteroffensive. The fact is that in June of this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, like in May, again liberated more territories than they lost.
This is what analysts from the DeepState project believe. The experts separately noted that so far ” there is practically nothing to show from the successes of the Defense Forces,” but the dynamics of the successes of Ukrainian soldiers has been maintained for two months in a row.
Step forward
DeepState analysts showed graphs according to which, in June, the Russians occupied only 84 sq. km of Ukrainian territory. This is slightly more than in May. And if we take into account that in both months the Ukrainian defenders liberated more territories than they lost, we can say that ” in May we took two steps forward, and in June one forward and one back,” experts believe.
“If we take into account how many our people have released over the past month, then for the second time in a row the enemy will have a negative number. Although the difference is small,” DeepState notes.
“In the second half of June, the enemy had successes in the area of Kostyantynivka, the state border of Ukraine, and Hulyaipol, which made it possible to slightly improve the situation compared to May,” the experts add.
Analysts are directly hinting that good news about successes in one of the areas on the front is expected in July.
DeepState states that the number of assault actions by the Russian aggressors has increased by 4.4%. However, this does not affect the “successes” of the occupiers. It is noted that very often only one invader “goes on the assault, and what motivates them to commit such suicide is an open question”.
What preceded
In May 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces were able to regain control over a larger area of territory than Russian troops had been able to occupy during the same period. This was the first month since 2023 that showed a negative balance for the Russian army in terms of progress on the front.
In particular, during May, Russian troops occupied about 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
It should also be noted that in May, a “significant increase in the intensity of assault actions ” was recorded. Namely, the number of attacks by the invaders in May increased by approximately 37.5%, exceeding 7,000 episodes.
Offensive in the South
As OBOZ.UA reported, Ukrainian defenders recently raised the blue-and-yellow flag over the Kinburn Spit in the Mykolaiv region. Our fighters managed to dislodge the occupiers from their occupied positions as a result of a successful, prolonged fire defeat of the invaders.
In general, Ukrainian defenders continue offensive operations in the south and demonstrate progress in certain sections of the front. The most noticeable results were recorded in the western part of the Zaporizhia region. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are intensifying strikes on rear facilities of Russian troops.