Jan 12, 2026

Protests in Iran have now spread to more than 185 cities and and all 31 provinces in the country. In some cases, demonstrations have drawn tens of thousands of protesters chanting, “Death to the dictator,” “Death to Khamenei,” and “This year is the year of blood, and Khamenei will be overthrown.” Iranians around the world are also demonstrating to show their support.

Protests are nothing new in Iran, where past demonstrations have seemed like they could lead to the end of the Ayatollah’s regime. In 2009, huge protests erupted when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president, after more moderate candidates were barred from running, and there were obvious irregularities in the vote counting. The government responded with repression, killing hundreds of protesters and arresting more than 4,000.

Protests erupted again in Iran in 2022, after a 22-year-old student named Mahsa Amini was killed while in police custody, having been arrested for not wearing her hijab properly. Then, women fed up with living in a police state where they are forced to adhere to strictly imposed traditions were at the forefront of the protests. Demonstrations even spread to more traditional, conservative cities such as Qom and Mashhad. Yet rather than offer concessions or consider reforms, Iran’s rulers responded again with force, killing more than 500 people and detaining more than 19,000.

These most recent protests, which started on Dec. 29, 2025 may be Iranians’ best chance to advance real change. Sensing the challenges it faces, Iran has tried to sow doubt and confusion about the protesters and their aims. Agents have been sent out to chant for a a return to the monarchy to create divisions in the protest movement, which could discourage minority groups who were repressed by the Shah from demonstrating. State TV is also broadcasting images reportedly of dead bodies stored in a warehouse — a chilling warning to anyone who dares opposes the regime.

With Iran’s opposition claiming that more than 3,000 people have been killed in just a few weeks, the government is resorting to its old playbook. But Resistance Units have formed in Iran that are better prepared to confront the regime. Even with internet outages and a blackout of more than 60 hours, protesters continue to fight back.

A Regime Reviled By Its People

Despite the protests, the Iranian government has refused to take accountability for its own failures. It has blamed Western imposed sanctions for its dire economic predicament, and has claimed that protesters are ruining the country to please U.S. President Donald Trump.

But many Iranians think the regime is the problem — which is seen as inept and oppressive. A 2019 survey by the GAMAAN Institute in the Netherlands found that 79% of the Iranian public would have voted against the government if a referendum were to take place.

Fast forward to 2026 and the regime is undoubtedly more unpopular. Many Iranians don’t believe that the country is governed well. Iran has the third-largest oil reserves in the world, but imports 15 million liters of oil a day to meet its domestic demands. It produces low-quality petroleum products that require more investment in refining capacity, which Iran has yet to resolve.

With its poor management of its oil industry, high corruption and global isolation, the Iranian government has overseen an economy that is essentially in free fall. In December, the value of the rial, the country’s currency, fell by 16% – a total decline of roughly 84% over the past year. Food inflation reached an annual rate of 72%. Investment levels remain low, capital flight has skyrocketed (maybe reaching 10% of Iran’s GDP) and oil revenues continue to fall. On top of that, Iran faces an energy crisis as 40% of residential natural gas and electricity is lost during production and transmission. The country is also dealing with water shortages after an unprecedented drought. Iran is looking more and more like a failed state.

The Regime’s Calculations

President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, has pledged to address economic grievances and claims that the regime is ready to listen. But Pezeshkian is not really in charge. The military and the mullahs are—and the decisions are ultimately made by Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader.

Khamenei may see exile as the only way out of this current crisis. Much of his base of support has abandoned him. One of the groups that was most loyal to Khamenei was the Bazaar or merchant class that played a decisive role in the overthrow of the Shah in the 1978-79 revolution. But today, the bazaaris have turned on the ayatollah, having become increasingly disillusioned with the state of Iran’s economy and liberalization policies.

Not surprisingly students are also at the forefront of this current protest movement — another group that was critical to the success of Iran’s past revolution.

Khamenei’s aura of invincibility has also been shattered. He is 86 years old and lives in hiding. It’s not clear if he has the stamina to endure going from one crisis to another. There are reports that Khamenei may flee to Moscow if the protests continue, as Bashar al-Assad of Syria did.

It’s a bit more complicated for the military to find a suitable offramp. The most powerful element of the Iranian security forces is the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC . It controls huge swaths of the Iranian economy, including construction, shipping, energy, banking and consumer goods, making tens of billions of dollars in profit. It also smuggles oil, which earned about $1 billion for the IRGC and its proxies in 2024. History has shown that the IRGC has been willing to repress the Iranian people to ensure the status quo.

But the regime is at its weakest point in recent memory. Its 12-day war with Israel exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities and damaged its air defenses, nuclear program and stockpile of missiles. Hamas and Hezbollah, which have enjoyed Iran’s support, have also been seriously debilitated and there is a new government in Syria that is no longer a client state of Iran.

Many IRGC commanders have been killed or marginalized. And Iran needs to try to negotiate with the US to get sanction relief to deal with its economic challenges. There is no doubt that the recent US removal of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela are part of the regime’s strategic calculations. The Iranian government knows that it could be Trump’s next target.

The writing may finally be on the wall for Khamenei. Iran’s regime is much weaker, and its citizens are much more fed up and better organized. Even if the regime somehow manages to weather these protests, it will emerge from this crisis weaker than ever.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/natashalindstaedt/2026/01/12/irans-regime-may-be-coming-to-an-end