Increasingly difficult for Russia to hide losses, find resources to continue war – GUR

UKRINFORM

July 13, 2024

It is becoming an increasingly challenging task for the Russian authorities to conceal from the domestic audiences the information on the actual losses in the war against Ukraine, as well to find resources to continue the act of aggression.

This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (GUR), Ukrinform reports.

As the GUR noted, the war Russia unleashed against Ukraine is becoming a factor of irritation across the regions of the aggressor state.

War coverage by Russian propaganda for its own population is leading to discontent and fatigue rather than to excitement or exaltation as was the case at the outset of the invasion.Read also: Intel chief on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia: Russians “already feeling them”

“One of the reasons for such changes is the inconsistency of official war coverage with the actual situation on the ground: the casualty toll is increasingly difficult to hide, and the resources for pursuing hostilities are running out, which, in particular, is evidenced by Moscow’s active preparation for a record tax increase in its history,” the report reads.

According to the GUR, the Kremlin’s plan, budget levies will increase for Russians who earn more than $2,200 a month – under the guise of a “progressive scale of personal income tax”. The income tax rate will increase from 20% to 25%.

The Russian regime estimates that the so-called tax reform will bring nearly $200 billion in the period from 2025 to 2031.

Also, the disappointing dynamics of public sentiment, monitored by the Kremlin, forces the military and political leadership to prepare the population for harder times. Regional representatives of the Putin regime are already trying to shift public focus away from annoying military topics to the urgent solution of social and everyday problems.

As the GUR emphasizes, Putin’s subordinates, including ruling party members, have been deployed to the regions to set up various support activities for war veterans and their family members, participate in receptions, develop and discuss show-off social bills: on support for volunteering, salary increases, and protection of veterans.

A special focus is on the support of the disabled, whose number is constantly increasing amid the ongoing war against Ukraine. In particular, the Russian authorities seek to develop domestic tourism for the invaders maimed during hostilities. The minimum number of spots for disabled drivers in Russian parking lots is now 15%.

“In general, the intensification of ‘social’ efforts on the part of the aggressor state indicates an attempt to water down discontent and avoid uncontrolled social explosions in Russia,” the GUR emphasized.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, NATO has no doubt North Korea provides significant military support to Russia to continue its war of aggression against Ukraine.

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Related;

Russia loses ‘astronomical’ 70,000 troops in 60 days

Uptick reflects opening of new Kharkiv front, with casualty rate of more than 1,000 a day expected over next two months, says MoD

By  IN WASHINGTON DC

13 July 2024

Russia has lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, British military intelligence said on Friday.

The update by the Ministry of Defence added that the heavy losses would likely continue as Russia looked to make gains across the front lines in Ukraine.

“The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine, throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 respectively,” the MoD wrote.

“In total, Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.”

A Russian T-80 tank fires towards Avdiivka
A Russian T-80 tank fires towards Avdiivka, but the gains in eastern Ukraine have been grinding CREDIT: AP

Russia has made grinding gains in eastern Ukraine over the past months as Kyiv’s armed forces try to overcome crippling shortages in manpower and ammunition.

Moscow launched a new front in May with a cross-border offensive into Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region.

A senior Nato official described the losses as “astronomical” during a briefing on the fringes of the alliance’s summit in Washington DC this week.

“Russia likely suffered losses of almost 1,000 people a day in May, which is quite an astronomical figure,” the source said.

Russian soldiers operate a Supercam drone
Russian soldiers operate a Supercam drone. A cross-border offensive into the Kharkiv area has been costly CREDIT: AP

Though the offensive was short-lived, it stretched Ukrainian resources, enabling Russia to make further gains on their priority target of the nearby Donetsk region. However, it stretched Russian resources also, said the MoD.

“The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front,” its update said.

“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the front line, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to stretch and exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the front line further.”

The update added: “Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overcome Ukrainian positions with mass.”

Russian soldiers fire from a self-propelled 122mm multiple rocket launcher
Russian soldiers fire from a self-propelled 122mm multiple rocket launcher CREDIT: AP

Western analysts have said Russia’s use of small assault units have prevented them from making substantial gains or exploiting any breakthroughs in Ukraine’s defensive lines.

Moscow’s forces have repeatedly made probing attacks with between 10 to 15 unmounted infantry troops, to avoid the heavy losses experienced with more heavily mechanised assaults.

“These tactics can yield incremental gains, but they are poorly suited to achieving operationally significant breakthroughs. Larger assaults have proven costly to Russian forces, which cannot afford sustained equipment losses of the kind seen earlier in Avdiivka,” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said.

Following a recent field research trip to the country, Mr Kofman said that Ukraine faces tough months ahead despite the improving battlefield situation

He said: “Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring.

“Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough.”

3 comments

  1. “The update added: “Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overcome Ukrainian positions with mass.”

    Unfortunately 1000 orcs/day is not a winning number. The allies must help Ukraine to double that at least.

    • This could easily be accomplished, but old sleepy, Scholz, the egghead coward, and other pathetic marshmallows continue being the losers of history that they are by allowing the mafia army to enjoy their sanctuary in mafia land.

  2. For those interested, Michael Kofman (a Ukrainian btw) can be heard discussing this on Brian Whitmore’s latest podcast.

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