Anna Bredykhina18:29, 08/01/232 min.1006

The economic burden on each employee will increase from UAH 15,700 in 2021 to UAH 28,700 in 2030.

Due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation and emigration , the population of Ukraine will decrease from 37 to 32 million in 2030 . In just a few years, there will be more pensioners than working citizens in the country.

As the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, writes , referring to a study conducted by KSHE, in 2030 the labor force will decrease from 17.4 to 11.7 million. 

According to researchers’ estimates, the population of Ukraine in 2023 will be about 31.2 million people, including 5.8 million refugees and those who left for Russia.

The size of the labor force in 2023 is estimated at 12.5 million people, which is less than in 2021, when it was 17.4 million people. This decline reflects 2.5 million refugees of working age, 1 million conscripts and 1.4 million additional unemployed. 

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According to the inertial scenario, which takes into account natural decline, the return of refugees and migration, the population of Ukraine will be 31.8 million people in 2024-2032. 

The labor force is estimated at 11.7 million people for the same period, taking into account natural decline, the return of refugees and additional migration. 

This includes 1.45 million returning refugees, based on surveys that show 50% of them want to return.Mylovanov noted that in 2021 there were 10.9 million pensioners in Ukraine. 

According to KSE forecasts, the number of pensioners will reach 12.2 million by 2032 due to the aging of the population. Thus, there will be fewer people working in the country than pensioners.”

Therefore, it is predicted that the economic burden on each employee will increase from UAH 15,700 in 2021 to UAH 28,700 in 2030,” he said.

Economic situation in Ukraine: migration and pensions

Minister of Finance Serhii Marchenko recently stated that the domestic economy loses about 2 billion dollars every month due to the fact that millions of Ukrainians have become refugees and are forced to live and work abroad.Note that as of January 1, 2023, 10.7 million pensioners are registered in Ukraine, of which 2.7 million continue to work. The average pension of working people as of July 1, 2023 is UAH 5,563.34. 7.26% of Ukrainian pensioners receive more than UAH 10,000 per month.

(C)UNIAN 2023