Nikita Shenderovsky14:32, 08.01.25

Trump became the first American leader to directly explain the impossibility of Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

The day before, newly elected US President Donald Trump gave a major briefing . During it, he made a number of statements that also concern Ukraine. In particular, he expressed hope that the war in Ukraine would end within six months. At the same time, he spoke out sharply against Ukraine’s membership in NATO, and also announced Putin’s desire to meet with him.

UNIAN asked political scientist and lecturer at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Petro Oleshchuk what these statements mean and what Ukraine should expect.

Trump said during a briefing that he “can understand Russia’s feelings” regarding Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Can we consider this statement a final word on the issue of Kyiv’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance?

Trump basically stated that everyone in the West understands that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. He stated quite clearly that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO. And since he made this statement before the start of negotiations, this means that for him this issue is effectively off the table.

Another question is how he plans to secure this. After all, Putin demands that this be secured at the level of official documents. He wants Ukraine to officially renounce NATO in its Constitution. However, whether Ukraine will do this is an open question.

It’s also an open question whether Trump wants to enshrine this somehow at the level of the United States or NATO’s charter documents. It’s really interesting how he will respond to Putin’s demands – not just to abandon the idea of ​​Ukraine joining NATO, but to guarantee that it will never happen.

After all, there were earlier opinions that the Trump administration would allegedly propose postponing this issue for 20-50 years. But Lavrov said that this is unacceptable for them, that they need Ukraine to never become a member of NATO.

However, what is most interesting is that he is the first American leader to say that this is not due to any internal Ukrainian reasons, but purely because of Russia’s position. Not because of “corruption, lack of democracy and freedom of speech”, no, a clear link to Russia’s position.

Another statement by Trump concerns ending the war. He said he plans to end it within his first six months in office. Where did his promises of “peace within 24 hours” go? Is the new six-month deadline feasible in practice?

He has already stated that this issue has turned out to be more complicated. And therefore he will not be able to resolve it in 24 hours. In addition, he has rejected the idea of ​​meeting with Putin before the inauguration date. After all, this would not be a very correct approach.

Trump’s new statement on this matter was rather ambiguous. He rather meant that during this time he wants to meet with Putin and discuss the issue of ending the war. Whether he will meet with Putin, whether it will be possible to come to certain agreements, what they will be – we cannot know all this.

And in Trump’s case, all this is simply impossible to predict. He will now be so drawn into the idea of ​​​​joining Canada and Greenland that he will forget about Putin and Ukraine altogether.

Trump also said that he is aware of Putin’s willingness to engage with him. Could this mean that certain informal talks between Moscow and Washington are already underway?

This is not a secret at all. The shuttle trips were organized by the same Orban, who met with both Trump and Putin. And this is only what was in the information space. And what was – we do not know. Therefore, I have no doubt that some relevant negotiations, apparently, began even before the end of the elections in the USA and are still ongoing.

A little more about the possible meeting between Putin and Trump. As far as we know, the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president. Will this somehow affect their meeting?

No, they will simply meet in a state to which the order of this court does not apply. In addition, the United States does not recognize the validity of the orders of the international court, because they have not acceded to the charter. Therefore, purely theoretically, there are no obstacles for Putin to come to the United States and meet there. But this is unlikely to happen. Most likely, they will meet in some neutral point in the Middle East or elsewhere.

Trump also promised to protect Ukraine. How can this protection take place in the event of a peace agreement or a freeze in the conflict?

It is difficult to imagine how Trump imagines the defense of Ukraine. It is impossible to predict here. After all, judging by Trump’s statements, one should not assume that he has any clear and realistic assessment of the situation.

Trump thinks it’s simple. He explained that the Biden administration wanted to take Ukraine into NATO for some reason. Putin didn’t like it because it was a violation of some unknown agreements. So, if you promise that Ukraine won’t be taken into NATO, Putin will agree to peace. This is Trump’s vision, which obviously doesn’t correspond to reality.

Putin, for example, can promise Trump that he will not fight against Ukraine until the end of his term. And Trump may be quite satisfied with that.

Trump has claimed that he has leverage over Ukraine – to limit any arms or other aid supplies. Can he find other leverage beyond that to force Ukraine to abandon NATO and return the territories?

The thing is that Trump hasn’t given anything to Ukraine, so he can’t take this aid away from us yet. After all, the Pentagon’s budget for next year doesn’t include a single dollar for aid to Ukraine. But Trump can promise to give something, and secure it in a decision by Congress.

Last year, the Ukrainian president said that Ukraine could have only two security guarantees – joining NATO or restoring its nuclear status. If we now stop the process of joining the North Atlantic Alliance – can we move to an alternative in the form of nuclear weapons?

I think that we need to be very careful with this issue, because the West takes it very seriously. But I have no doubt that Ukraine will raise the issue of restoring its nuclear status.

The implementation of this issue is very risky, because it can immediately cause a response from Russia. In addition, in the modern world, it is customary not to declare your plans if they really begin working on nuclear weapons. If you ask Israel – do they have nuclear weapons, they will say no. But the whole world knows that they have them. You can’t just go and say that I made a nuclear bomb.

(C)UNIAN 2025