05/27/2026
Belarus has claimed to have recorded over 100 attempts by Defense Forces drones to cross the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in the past week, accusing Ukraine of targeting at least some of these UAVs at Belarusian border infrastructure.
These statements could be creating conditions to justify Russian drone strikes on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus – which would give Russia the opportunity to more effectively attack logistics in the west and north-west of our country. This explanation was put forward by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
What was declared in Belarus and why was this statement made?
The statement about the “drone threat” from Ukraine was made by Lieutenant General of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich. He stated on May 26 that Belarusian troops “recorded” 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the international border with Belarus over the past week.
Volfovich also claimed that some cases of border crossings by Ukrainian drones were allegedly deliberate attempts to attack Belarusian border infrastructure.
Volfovich’s statements came amid recent warnings from Ukrainian officials that Russia is pressuring Belarus to conduct operations against Ukraine or an unspecified NATO state.
ISW believes that Belarus is unlikely to launch a ground invasion against Ukraine. Analysts do not observe and do not have data on the build-up of Belarusian forces on the border that would be sufficient for a ground invasion. At the same time, Russia, according to ISW estimates, also lacks the reserves necessary to support Belarusian troops in the event of a ground invasion of Ukraine.
“Instead, Russia may use reported instances of Ukrainian drone presence in Belarusian airspace to justify using Belarusian territory to carry out “retaliatory strikes” on Ukraine. Belarusian territory would allow Russia to conduct continuous drone strikes on Ukrainian ground lines of communication in the west and northwest, which Russian drones currently cannot easily hit with high accuracy and large payloads,” the analysts noted.
In Belarus, people started talking about the “invasion” of Ukrainian drones: ISW explained what is behind the statements ISW believes that the launches of Shahed and Molniya from Belarus would give the occupying army the opportunity to attack the M-06 highway, which runs through western Ukrainian regions, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine, as well as the railway connecting Poland and Ukraine.
“Russian forces are already attacking western Ukrainian regions from Russian territory, but launching drones from Belarus will allow Russian forces to use remotely controlled Shahed and Molniya drones, which will increase their accuracy and ability to hit moving targets along Ukrainian ground lines of communication,” ISW explained.
As an example, analysts cited the case declared by Ukraine, when a Russian UAV operator, sitting in Belarus, on December 22, 2025, struck a freight train near Korosten in the Zhytomyr region (about 50 kilometers south of the Belarusian border).
“Volfovich’s statements and recent Ukrainian warnings regarding Belarus indicate that Russia is creating information conditions for the further use of Belarus for its own military purposes, in particular for strikes on strategically important objects in the rear of western Ukraine,” ISW summarized.
As OBOZ.UA reported, the day before yesterday, the State Border Service of Ukraine responded to Belarus’s statements about alleged daily border crossings by Ukrainian drones. The State Border Service of Ukraine called such accusations absurd and stated that Minsk is trying to shift responsibility onto Ukraine for what it is doing itself.
Seeing Ukraine’s expert capabilities in drone warfare, Belarus claiming the country has “attempted” to cross the border is in itself a complete lie. No doubt, Ukraine could penetrate the border anywhere and at any time of its choosing. We see this happening in mafia land all the time. Belarus, of all countries, does not have the ability to stop Ukraine from entering its airspace.
And when an attack comes, what will the “allies” do?
That’s right, fuck all as usual.