The US still has the muscle, economic and military

Samuel Ramani

06 May 2025

President Donald Trump has abandoned his pledge to broker a swift end to the Ukraine War. As Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukraine’s call for a thirty-day ceasefire and continued escalating Russian offensive actions in eastern Ukraine, the rationale for ongoing negotiations was eviscerated. 

While Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s public frustrations with the lack of progress of the talks pointed to a diplomatic impasse, it was unclear whether Trump would blame the stagnation on Ukraine or Russia. Ukraine’s reluctant signing of the rare earth metal deal with the U.S. satisfied Trump for the moment and caused the mercurial president to see Russia as the primary driver of continued conflict. This change in tack has fuelled speculation that Trump will pivot towards a maximum pressure strategy towards Russia aimed at forcing Putin to negotiate a deal. 

One key element of a U.S. maximum pressure strategy would be additional U.S. sanctions. Last week, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham claimed that 72 of his Senate colleagues had agreed to impose “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia. These sanctions would cripple Russia’s energy exports and compound the impact of tariff-induced oil price declines. As Russia’s GDP growth has slowed to 1.4 per cent and budget deficit has soared to 1.7 per cent, these sanctions would squeeze Putin’s war machine at an inopportune time. 

While these additional sanctions would be welcomed in Kyiv, they are unlikely to change Putin’s calculus by themselves. For a real maximum pressure strategy to be implemented, Trump would need to reverse his long-standing opposition to arms deliveries to Ukraine. After the rare earth deal was signed, the U.S. Department of State greenlit $50 million in defence hardware and services to Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether this small-scale arms delivery transforms into a strategy of giving Ukraine the tools it needs to militarily prevail against Putin’s aggression. 

Inside Trump’s inner circle of foreign and security policy advisors, there are supporters of major arms deliveries to Ukraine. Trump’s envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg once urged the U.S. to provide Kyiv with more arms if Russia did not entertain diplomatic negotiations. Vice Chairman of the America First Policy Institute Centre for American Security Fred Fleitz suggested that Trump could secure peace by arming Ukraine to the teeth and forcing Russia to capitulate. 

If Trump listens to these hawkish voices, what weapons are likely to enter Ukraine’s hands? The biggest game-changer for Ukraine would be the supply of additional fighter jets. The U.S. Defence Department EUCOM branch recently hailed Ukraine’s daily use of F-16s and suggested that more jets could be on their way. The U.S. has also sent decommissioned F-16 jets to Ukraine for spare parts support. These moves could ensure that Ukraine continues checking Russia’s aerial superiority on the battlefield. 

ATACMS long-range missiles are also high on Ukraine’s bucket list. As President Joe Biden only authorized the delivery of 40 ATACMS to Kyiv, the Ukrainian military ran out of these missiles in late January. Ukrainian troops could use additional ATACMS to target facilities that produce jet fuel to the Russian Air Force, strike exposed ammunition depots and pre-empt further cross-border offensives around Kursk. With a radius of 300km, ATACMS would serve as an effective force multiplier for Britain’s Storm Shadows and France’s SCALP missiles. 

As more than 500 ATACMS were added to the U.S.’s stockpiles in 2023-24, Trump certainly has scope to supply these long-range missiles to Ukraine. The only thing holding him back is his view that Ukraine’s use of ATACMS against Russian targets would risk World War III. As Putin dropped yet another veiled nuclear threat against Ukraine this weekend, Trump’s fear of escalation risks could cause him to refrain from ATACMS deliveries. 

Even if Trump waffles on long-range missile shipments, there is still significant scope for the U.S. to augment Ukraine’s arsenal of NATO-class artillery. During its October 2024 aid package, Australia announced plans to deliver 49 soon-to-be-retired M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The Biden administration privately objected to Australia’s plans and Trump’s temporary freezing of military aid to Ukraine derailed their delivery. Trump’s change of approach could lead to these M1A1 Abrams tanks finally reaching Ukraine’s military. 

These tanks are unlikely to be a game-changer by themselves. Around 20 of the first 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks were destroyed as Russian forces capitalized on Ukraine’s limited air defence cover. At least one M1A1 Abrams tank was captured by the Russian military so its signature technologies could be researched and reverse engineered. Nonetheless, they could help stall Russia’s advances on Sumy and Kharkiv. Due to Ukraine’s mass production of drones, Russian tanks can only operate in a limited range of covered positions. More M1A1 Abrams tanks could give Ukraine a quantitative artillery advantage on key segments of the frontline. 

The U.S. also has scope to provide Ukraine with additional stealth weaponry. While small U.S.-made drones have undermined by technical glitches, U.S.-made Switchblade 600 drones are much more effective. As Switchblade 600s have an over 40km range and at least 40-minute flight endurance, they have been able to degrade Russian Buk and Tor air defence systems. The weakening of Russian air defences compounds the impact of Ukrainian cross-border strikes and further limits Russia’s ability to protect its depleted tank arsenal. 

Aside from these sophisticated offensive technologies, Ukraine wants the U.S. to keep its air defence missile, artillery shell and ammunition supply chains moving. The U.S.’s dispatch of a refurbished Patriot air defence system from Israel to Ukraine is a major step forward for the defence of Ukrainian cities against Russian bombardments. It is also welcome vindication for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who was mocked by Trump for his offer to purchase ten Patriot systems for $15 billion and potentially secure licenses to domestically produce them. 

As the U.S. ramps up its domestic production of 155mm artillery shells and ammunition, Ukraine could become less reliant on European supply chains and counter North Korea’s arms deliveries to Russia. If European NATO members simultaneously bolster their defence budgets, Russia’s still-humming war economy could be stretched to its limits. 

Two months after U.S.-Ukraine relations crashed over the ill-fated Zelensky-Trump Oval Office meeting, Kyiv can now harbour realistic hopes of new U.S. arms exports. If these deliveries transpire, they could further slow Russia’s offensive advance and force Putin to sue for peace on less advantageous terms. A worrying prospect for the Kremlin.