Yuriy Kobzar20:30, 04.12.24

Without the naval base in Tartus, Russia may lose its influence in Africa and the Middle East.

If Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria falls due to a rebel offensive, Russia will lose its only military base in the Mediterranean . This could have dramatic consequences for Russia’s efforts in Ukraine, writes The Telegraph’s military columnist David Ax.

He noted that the rebels have already captured the country’s largest city, Aleppo, and have approached the important city of Hama. If the anti-government forces are able to capture Hama, they will have the prospect of an offensive towards the Mediterranean coast – the region of Latakia, where the only base of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean is located in the port city of Tartus.

Moscow has been using this base since the 1970s. In 2017, Russia and Syria signed a 49-year contract that gives Moscow even greater access to Tartus. It was from here that several Russian ships entered the Black Sea before a full-scale attack on Ukraine.

As David Ax points out, without modern reliable ships capable of withstanding long sea campaigns, Russia is forced to rely on the “coastal navigation” of its fleet from port to port. And the base in Tartus is important in this aspect.

“The loss of Tartus would be catastrophic for Russian power projection in Southern Europe and North Africa. Realistically, the only way for the Kremlin to replace the vital coastal infrastructure at Tartus is to restore access to the Mediterranean through the Bosphorus, [closed to the Russian Navy due to the war in Ukraine] “, the observer notes.

According to Aks, after losing Tartus, the Kremlin may face a difficult choice: to continue fighting in Ukraine and lose influence in the Mediterranean region, or to make peace with Ukraine and unblock the Turkish straits for its fleet. 

(c)UNIAN 2024