Aug 8, 2024

If Putin could go back two years.

The recent Ukrainian cross border operation into Kursk Oblast clearly came as a surprise to Russian Forces. While Russia has concentrated its efforts on small incremental gains on the Donbas front, Ukraine has swung a left hook at a weakspot in the north. Once again Ukrainian Generals have shown their ability to see the whole battle front and avoid being focused on small centres of operational activity.

There is a policy change in play. This is the first time that regular UA forces have mounted a cross border operation in strength. Previous raids were carried out by anti-Putin Russian forces under a Ukrainian flag.

In contrast Russian generals have fixed all their attention on small tactical territorial gains that incurred heavy losses. Their tactics have not changed for two years, they hope to wear down UAF resistance by sacrificing more men. Russian casualties for the past two years and five months now exceed 560,000 and climb by more than 1000 every day.

Russian Generals are now forced to move men and materiel to Kursk which will weaken their positions elsewhere. In order for Ukraine to carry out this operation they must be confident that they have control of the air space. F16s are now flying and continued depletion of Russian air defences has created a weakness that Ukraine has exploited.

It is currently unclear whether Ukraine intends to hold ground or simply force a reaction from Russia before withdrawing. It is possible Ukraine might exploit the Russian weakness and advance further. However, this in turn would extend their lines of communication and weaken their logistical support.

Russia once again has been out thought. Ukraine has taken more territory in two days than Russia has gained in four months. Although holding ground isn’t the most vital factor in this war, it certainly places Russia on the back foot again.

Russia is struggling to maintain it’s military forces at many levels. It is paying huge sums to bribe ‘volunteers’ to come forward. It is losing tanks and aircraft faster than it can replace them. Its air defences are being depleted every day. Western technology is proving far superior to the best Russia can bring to the fight. Financially, Russia is depleting its national wealth fund. It has been reported that if the Russian oil price stays below $65 Russia will run out of money in eighteen months. Russia can no longer sell its inadequate weapons abroad further reducing their income. Russian inflation is rising rapidly, the Ruble cannot be traded on the international market and is considered worthless outside Russia. Russia has halted it’s petroleum exports to keep its farms and factories operating and now there are Ukrainian Forces on Russian soil.

If Putin could go back two years, I think he might have done things differently.

Slava Ukraini!

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robinhorsfall