Jan 25, 2025
How will the war between russa and Ukraine end?
Here are my thoughts: Within the next six months, there will likely be an agreement. The active phase of the war will end — I hope that shooting and killing will finally stop.
The agreement will likely be unfavorable for Ukraine: no return of Crimea or Donbas, no reparations, no NATO membership, no acknowledgment of russia as the aggressor, and no prosecution of russian war criminals. Additionally, the U.S. will probably lift some sanctions against russia.
However, there will also be some positive outcomes for Ukraine: Ukraine will preserve its independence and maintain its military forces without restrictions on the size of its army. Ukraine will also sign multiple bilateral defense agreements with Western countries (“Article 5-like”), including commitments for support in the event of future russian aggression.
Ukrainians will likely accuse Zelensky of surrendering the country, while russians will blame Putin for failing to defeat the “Ukro-Nazis” and not achieving the two main goals of the “special military operation” — denazification and demilitarization. There will be no grand Ukrainian military parade in Red Square and no russian Victory Parade in Kyiv.
Meanwhile, russia will begin preparing for another wave of aggression within the next 5-6 years. Ukraine will continue to strengthen its military to repel future threats. European countries will finally start making serious investments in their defense capabilities.
Economic recovery in Ukraine will be challenging. Russia won’t pay reparations, and while Western countries will allocate some funds for reconstruction, foreign investors will be hesitant to commit without “real security guarantees” such as NATO membership.
Russia’s economic recovery will be even more difficult. Western companies will never return to russia, and Europe will continue its path toward energy independence. Ukraine will permanently close its borders to russia, cutting off its direct access to Europe.
There is some hope that new leadership in russia could emerge, bringing the country back into the civilized world, lifting sanctions, and returning occupied territories to Ukraine. However, I estimate the chances of this happening at less than 5%.
P.S. In writing this text, I have benefited from the analysis of Vasyl Taras.
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As if to indicate the direction of travel, here is another new post from Roman:
Jan 26, 2025
Kristi Noem has been appointed as the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security.
She has been a strong opponent of aid to Ukraine. In 2023, Noem stated that providing aid to Kyiv was a strategic mistake. She also criticized sanctions against russia, arguing that they harm the United States.
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Another Trump adviser:
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Private Eye’s satirical comment from late last year :
Trumpkov loves to hire unsavory arseholes like Hegseth. Now the pro-ruZZian scum Noem, who shot her own dog and wrote about it.
Not to mention her goat.
Comment from :
Andriy Diduh
Good analysis, realistic, Roman except 🤓,
two things may prevent the “deal” and change the course of history:
– we already signed security guarantees, that many people don’t consider as security guarantees at all and they called Budapest Memorandum ✍️ so further guarantees worth Nothing and everyone understands this 🤔 (agreement “Article 5-like” without boots on the ground worth the same as we have now with limited weapon supplies)
– our president knows what danger ruzzians 🥷🥷🥷 hold to our top people at political military power while ruzzia remains in the current state of things – this One serious reason 🤔 (unless US guarantees personal super protection and life in the US 🇺🇸🤔, which is problematic)
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Separately I think a lot of EU🇪🇺 big players do not support wantings of the US 🇺🇸 especially the past requirements to push military spendings, territorial disagreements that causes public responses,
speculations about EU boots on the ground but without US;
taking that in to account the guarantees may even be based on demands for EU to deal with ruzzians with their own military forces without US in this – highly unlikely accepted by EU 🤔
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What do you think dear readers, what is the outcome for the next 1.5 years?
Mogens Rye
I hope you’re wrong. Here is my prediction:
In the next 6 months the Russian economy will implode. The inflation soars to 30-50 %.
The Russian central bank will either cease to function or have to hike rates to way higher.
The Rubble will go to 200 against USD
Putin has to either declare full war and mobilize massively, forcing NATO countries to massively expand the % GDP spending on defence upwards to 10%.
A massive arms industrial complex will arise in Europe, and a lot of this will be made in Ukraine.
Or Putin has to ask for peace. In my mind, Crimea will be demilitarised, as Ukraine can never again trust the Russians.
The areas now occupied will become autonomes, but as Russia still slides into State bancrupcy, May find its way back to Ukraine as Ukraine fast tracks into the EU.
The frozen Russian overseas assets will in either case be given to Ukraine to spend on rebuilding.
David Beran
I believe you’ve omitted one key element: peace keeping forces on the frontlines. That will prompt the countries participating to invest heavily in their soldiers’ protection (drones, vehicles, better comms, ..), and those soldiers will familiarize themselves with the surroundings of THEIR future battlefield (Polish- Belarusian-Ukrainian borders), and with ruSSian sneaky tactics of infilitration/skirmishes.
It won’t be the hot phase of the war anymore/yet, which will allow for regular rotation and passing of skills onto reserve/non-elite troops. A huge win for participating European countries. I wouldn’t be surprised if ruSSia pushed for peacekeepers from non-European countries primarily (as we know China has been sending troops all over to gain real-combat experience).
Sameel K
Ukraine did not come this far for nothing and won’t ever settle. There is a new era of Ukrainian ingenuity coming which will derail US military cost structure.
Trump and Putin will finally figure out who has the balls to go far enough. Ukrainians have a simple mindset. If we live We live free as human beings if not we will not die without killing our enemy. History will show how and where the Russian imperialist empire went down in Ukraine. The next few chapters will be SBU playing Mossad post world war 2. I am more hedging my bet on Israel on steroids kind of scenario for Ukraine and back to nuclear arms for Ukraine.
Matt Stamper
It seems that we are hell-bent on destroying this planet, and evil will win. If there were justice, Putin would be hanging from the gallows, Russia’s foreign assets would be given to Ukraine to start the process of rebuilding all of Ukraine (Donbas and Crimea), that f****ing bridge would be obliterated, and Ukraine would and should be a member of the EU and NATO. Putin must not be allowed to win, and this violence that has been perpetrated on the Ukrainian people cannot be normalized.
Tetiana Onopchuk
I would argue that this will not be the END of war; it may, and I hope it will, mark the end of the active phase of the conflict. However, the ‘battle’ must continue on diplomatic, political, and economic fronts—not only for Ukraine but for all democratic countries and leaders. This ongoing effort is essential until Russia ceases to exist as an aggressor, meaning the complete dismantling of its nuclear capabilities and the elimination of funds for military development.
Joseph Nunez PhD, ex Col US army
Some interesting and thoughtful analysis, but a bit too pessimistic on Ukraine. Folks tend to assume that the United States will not lean on Russia too much, but early policy indications do not support this perspective. Aside from more robust battlefield support, there is an oil and gas part to this strategy that is important to consider. Let’s give Washington, Kiev, and more than a few European capitals a month or two to align and implement policy changes to improve the final outcome for Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia.
Thomas Brayford
russia, in its current form, needs to see the war out in order to exist. The war criminal Putin’s goal has always been to erase and amalgamate Ukraine, similarly to Belarus. The scenario you’ve presented would therefore represent a big failure, and could only be reversed if the West somehow decides to abandon Ukraine completely – which at this point seems unlikely, given that it would be appeasing russia anyway, and would feel some sense of responsibility towards Ukraine.
Richard Zuska
The Ukrainian people are resilient and have been fighting Russia for a long time. How could the country’s leadership look the survivors in the eye if they betrayed the ideals for which their loved ones gave their lives? It would be a betrayal of the Ukrainian people, including those in the occupied territories. That is why there will be no Minsk 3. Even if the US betrays and abandons them, they will not give up.
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LinkedIn has one billion users. The above article attracted thousands of comments; almost all pro-Ukraine. The above quoted comments are just a small fraction.
Like us, many other normal people have a better grasp of things than our pathetic politicians. We’re in the slow-motion process of dismantling our standing on this globe. Our leaders should actually be thrown into prison for the huge damages they’re causing.
Roman’s extrapolation would leave the rat nazi in control of millions of Ukrainians and $trillions worth of Ukrainian natural resources.
It simply must not be allowed to happen that way.
The West will have failed miserably if Roman’s prediction comes true. We will stand before the entire globe as losers, and this will give a huge boost in esteem for the aggressor country and the other evil fiends, like china, iran, and north korea. We will lose india, Vietnam, Indonesia, most of South America and Africa.