Without help in the nick of time, Kyiv would probably have lost an entire oblast by now
13 March 2024 •
Russia went to war in Ukraine two years ago with twice as many artillery pieces as Ukraine had. But it isn’t the advantage in howitzers that really matters – it’s the advantage in shells.
After all, a single gun firing 50 shells a day is about as useful as two guns each firing 25.
For hundreds of years, artillery has dominated land warfare. Firing far and hitting hard, it’s the biggest killer of infantry, the main means of supporting an attack and the main means of supporting a defense.
It’s for that reason that, in charting the supply of artillery ammunition on both sides of a war, you can map the progress of that war. The side with the most shells is probably going to win.
And it’s why a surprise initiative, led by the Czech Republic and involving more than a dozen European countries, has been so critical to Ukraine’s survival as Russia’s wider war on the country grinds into its third year.
that the Czech artillery initiative probably saved entire Ukrainian cities, by giving the Ukrainian army the firepower to resist a much bigger Russian army.
It’s no secret how Ukraine got into an artillery bind late last year. In early 2023, according to The Washington Post, the United States quietly brokered a deal with South Korea – a country with sprawling artillery factories – to purchase, likely for billions of dollars, a whopping one million shells in the standard Nato 155mm calibre, now also the standard artillery round of Ukraine.
Those million shells, heaped on top of ammunition Ukraine was getting directly from the USA and European countries, freed Ukraine’s 3,000 or so howitzers to blast away at a rate of at least 10,000 rounds a day – matching, for the first time, the daily firing rate of Russia’s 6,000 howitzers.
did after their counteroffensive petered out around October. That’s when the Russian army, swelling to nearly half a million deployed troops thanks to a nationwide mobilization, went on the attack. The Russians concentrated tens of thousands of their best-equipped troops for a drive on the most vulnerable Ukrainian city: Avdiivka, a former industrial center just a few miles from the front line in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.
Those troops suffered astounding casualties – probably tens of thousands – but steadily advanced. They surely noticed that, with every day that passed as fall turned to winter, Ukraine’s artillery fire became more sporadic and, in some sectors, even fell completely silent.
To understand how Ukrainian howitzers that once fired non-stop eventually went idle, you have to understand American politics. Americans elect the US Congress every two years. And in 2022, they narrowly chose Republicans to lead the US House of Representatives, one of two houses of Congress. The presidency and the US Senate remained in the hands of the Democratic Party.
Before losing the House in November 2022, the Democrats approved $75 billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine. That aid began to run out in October. President Joe Biden promptly proposed an additional $61 billion in funding for Ukraine but, to the shock of the political mainstream in the USA, the Republican speaker of the house, Representative Mike Johnson, declined to exercise his exclusive authority to bring the aid to a vote. This, despite the fact that majorities of both parties were in favour.
Johnson told a lot of stories to explain his opposition to helping Ukraine, but they’re all spin. The simple truth is that disgraced ex-president Donald Trump, who is running for the presidency this year and is weirdly fond of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, voiced his ambivalence toward Ukraine. And Johnson translated that ambivalence into a one-man Congressional blockade of US support for Ukraine. Support that would have paid for hundreds of thousands of shells.
Ukraine began running out of ammo because that’s what Trump wanted. And because a European Union project to manufacture a million shells for Ukraine was six months late for its 2023 deadline, Ukraine’s daily artillery usage fell from 10,000 rounds to just 2,000 rounds, while Russia’s own usage remained elevated thanks to a huge ammo consignment from North Korea.
By mid-February, the Russians were on the march in and around Avdiivka. The ammo-starved Ukrainian garrison retreated – and kept retreating as the Russians’ momentum carried them farther and farther west.
But then, on Feb. 18, Czech defense policy chief Jan Jires shocked his audience when he announced – at a Munich security conference – that his government had identified 800,000 artillery shells “sitting in non-Western countries.” Those countries apparently include South Korea, Turkey and South Africa.
The shells could be had for $1.5 billion, Czech officials said.
quickly signed up. Soon, another 13 countries joined the Czech artillery club. In three weeks, Jires and his colleagues collected all $1.5 billion. Shells were on their way within weeks.
With months’ worth of shells on the way, Ukrainian brigades no longer had to conserve what little ammo they’d been saving for emergencies. In early March, Ukraine’s batteries opened fire.
Five miles west of Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops halted their retreat, turned and counterattacked. Finally enjoying something approaching adequate artillery support, they stopped the Russian offensive dead in its tracks in villages with names like Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonen’ke.
Artillery – a shortage of it – is the main reason the Ukrainians nearly lost a whole eastern oblast to the Russians this winter and spring. And artillery – a million shells brokered by a tiny Eastern European country – is the main reason the Ukrainians didn’t lose that whole oblast.
If artillery is the king of battle, the current kingmaker is … the Czech Republic.
Selected DT readers’ Comments :
Outside Right Nato should be ashamed of itself. The Russian defensive lines that broke the Ukrainian counter offensive could have easily been outflanked and taken in the rear by Ukrainian forces advancing into lightly defended Russian territory and driving around the end of the defences, just as the Germans passed the end of the Maginot line. But the western arms donors forbade Ukraine to invade Russian territory and condemned the Ukrainian army to monstrous casualties attacking painstakingly prepared defensive positions. Now the west blames Ukraine for the failure of the counter offensive. Disgusting.
Dave Langholm Excellent initiative from the Czech Republic, if only European countries could work effectively together and provide consistent support to Ukraine. If perhaps the challenger 1 tanks (assuming serviceable) owned by Jordan and perhaps the Ajax light tanks in the UK (as they are are all but useless save in a short combat situation) could be sent to Ukraine then there would the ability to strike a blow against Putin.
Wensleydale Cheese EU has it billions on the way. it is inevitable that Congress will pass the billions for Ukraine as blocker Johnson is bypassed and allows the majority of Republicans and Democrats who want to vote for more funds for Ukraine win out. The Czech Republic have led a fantastic initiative to get shells in the near time to Ukraine. Desperate Putin super-fans are apoplectic, poor things.
Angela Stewart I’m a New Zealander and am so glad that the clever tactics of the Czech Republic and a lot of very hard work has enabled the Ukrainian troops to carry on a defence of their country – Hurrah to all those who worked so hard on this. Trump should hang his wicked, lying head in shame. May his name live in infamy along with Putin and all his scurvy henchmen. How is it that after all the European wars of the 20th century and all the blood shed by the innocent, we still have these vermin among us. What is the advantage of advanced education for anyone who wants it that we still behave like this and never get on top of the indecent strong men posing as heads of State?
Julia Handoll Whatever the rights and wrongs of the issues it is entirely possible that Europe and NATO have until November before Trump and the Pope hand Putin the keys to Kiev.
Muttley Dastardly It shouldn’t be down to the Czech Republic to do this but top marks to them. The West is more than the US, why are many nations not working together to manufacture artillery for Ukraine, when Putins war machine is in full swing?
Stephen Murphy Well done to the Czechs! “The simple truth is that disgraced ex-president Donald Trump, who is running for the presidency this year and is weirdly fond of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin” And some people here support Trump in becoming US president again. They should be ashamed of themselves.
John Calvert Trump is a Putin asset, he was saved from bankruptcy before he became president by a gigantic loan from Deutsche Bank . Where do you think the funds from Deutsche Bank came from? Putin and the criminal Russian government that’s where. Everything Trump has done and said about Russia has strengthened their position while at the same time everything that he says about Nato weakens it. Nato is the main reason there hasn’t been (so far) a third world war and this man seems determined to break it up. He has already said that if he becomes president Ukraine will not get a cent from America. Trump would abolish Democracy in America along with half of the republican party who support him if they had the chance. By the way, when he says that Nato members are not paying their way within the alliance he is talking absolute garbage, the countries within Nato don’t pay anything the treaty states that members should spend 2 per cent of their own gdp on military expenditure not that the countries concerned pay 2 per cent of their gdp into some sort of fund to pay for Nato. Everytime America has asked Nato members to join in a coalition in it’s middle eastern wars that it fought , they did, even though Afghanistan was a military disaster and the second Iraqi war had dubious reasons for fighting it in the first place. Trump is a dangerous man and so are his cronies.
As Stefan Korshak, journo of the Kyivpost, wrote recently:
“European will to commit resources to counter Russian aggression is real, it is corporate, and there is too much money and political capital involved now for it to be reversed. A year ago I wasn’t sure. My view at this point is that the European elite has decided first that Russia is a real threat to continental stability and economic well-being, and second that containing that threat requires commitment of resources to military force.
…
But the observation that I would make is that the US national leadership — and let me be clear, this is all the government, both political parties, the corporations that fund them, the whole nine yards that make up the American ruling class that calls the shots between elections — has from where I sit chosen CYA and personal career advancement, and trying to win the internal domestic battles, over geopolitical realities. Any idiot can see this will continue at minimum until the end of 2024.”
View at Medium.com
Explosions in Belgorod.
“But it isn’t the advantage in howitzers that really matters – it’s the advantage in shells.”
As with many things in life, focusing on numbers is not always the path to victory. Western artillery pieces and artillery ammunition is superior to anything the Soviet Union and mafia land produced/produces, and that is worth a lot. Quality is better than quantity, as long as quantity isn’t extremely overwhelming.
Anyhow, I salute the little country of Czechia, which has a big heart and huge courage.