Yury Kobzar17:03, 22.10.23
The aggressor’s readiness to burn his troops in bloody assaults is explained, in part, by large Soviet reserves of equipment.
Russia may have about 8.9 thousand more armored vehicles of various types in conservation, including about 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles. This is evidenced by satellite images of Russian equipment storage bases, which were analyzed by OSINT analyst High Marsed on his Twitter profile.
Thus, careful calculations of the equipment in the images show that in total Russia has about 8,917 light armored vehicles in storage (BTR-60/70, BRDM-2 and MT-LB), including 3,677 infantry fighting vehicles. We are talking only about those machines that are stored in the open air and can be counted that way. How many armored vehicles Russia has stored in closed hangars is unknown.
Moreover, some of the satellite images used for the calculation are already quite old – 2022 and even 2021. That is, they could become outdated, because the Russians could take some of the vehicles from there to send to the front.
“I used to count 4,112 infantry fighting vehicles in storage as a pre-war number, but I missed some, and the true number is probably closer to 4,500-4,700,” the analyst notes.
According to him, in general, the same order of numbers is given by the authoritative publication The Military Balance, which at the beginning of 2023 counted approximately 11 thousand armored vehicles of all types in storage in Russia, including 4 thousand BTR-60/70, 4 thousand BMP- 1/2, 2 thousand MT-LB and 1 thousand BRDM-2.
Analyzing these data, the Ukrainian publication Defense Express calls these huge reserves of Soviet equipment one of the reasons why the Russian command so easily accepts huge losses of its troops, in particular near Avdiivka.
“Russian invaders may well believe that the existing stock of armored vehicles may be enough for them even for 1-2 years of hostilities at the same pace and scale as now,” the publication says.
Russian losses in the battle for Avdiivka
As UNIAN wrote, the Russian aggressor has been conducting a powerful offensive in the Avdeevsky direction for about two weeks, trying to encircle the city. With extremely limited territorial gains, the Russians suffered record losses. For example, in just one day on October 19, the total losses of Russians along the entire front amounted to a record 1,380 people, 55 tanks and 120 armored fighting vehicles. And the main contribution here was made by the battle for Avdiivka.
Military analyst Alexander Kovalenko notes that the readiness of the Russian command to suffer such huge losses even when the failure of the original plan has become obvious should be concerning. According to him, this indicates that the command of the occupiers does not intend to stop, despite the cost of this offensive.
(C)UNIAN 2023
Counting vehicles from outdated information is a bit problematic. Even if those numbers are approximately correct, this doesn’t mean that all of those vehicles are in a usable state. I’m willing to bet that the majority won’t be.
Seeing that they are not built anymore, meaning outdated, there might not be much left of spare parts to get them in operable condition. Even if there are spare parts available, who knows how many and in what condition they are in. Many vehicles surely must be used as spare parts carcasses to get a few others up and going.
Furthermore, their old age means that they are not fit for a modern battlefield and will be easily destroyed once they do make to the war. Last, but not least, is the serious lack of qualified personnel, both as maintenance/refurbishing crews and those that must fight in the ancient junk.