Let’s invest in Ukraine; it will soon become a new emerging market.
- Case Western Reserve University – Weatherhead School of Management
Kyiv, Kyiv City, Ukraine Ukraine Business News (UBN)
Feb 10, 2025
How long can Russia sustain this war? This question genuinely concerns the world and reflects how sanctions affect the aggressor state’s economy.
Most of Ukraine’s allies are convinced that Russia is on the edge of collapse and cannot continue the war, believing that the enormous military losses will eventually wear Russia down and deter the population from joining the military. They believe that Russia has no soldiers left, and their capabilities are completely exhausted. Unfortunately, this has been repeated for three years, yet the number of Russians joining the military has not declined. Do the sanctions work as we expect? Yes, and at the same time, no.
I have spoken to several Russians who immigrated to the US in the early 2000s and 2010s. Now, they are US citizens living good lives in America, but their families still live in various regions of Russia. According to dozens of their relatives, sanctions have significantly impacted the country’s economy, causing many mid- and small-sized businesses to shut down. Over the past three years, inflation has skyrocketed, and many people have lost their jobs, leading to a difficult situation. According to those interviewed, in rural areas, every third person has lost their job in the last three years.
The Russian economy has suffered significantly if we exclude Moscow and St. Petersburg. Some workers cannot find jobs that pay $200 to $300 a month. Furthermore, due to sanctions, Russian men cannot travel to certain countries for work and support their families by working abroad, leaving them with no way to support their families.
What is the only option left? You are correct: Join the army! Thus, Western sanctions have worsened the Russian economy to the point where Russian men have no choice but to fight in the war to earn a few thousand dollars every month in addition to a large signing bonus. If we think that the impact of Western sanctions on Putin’s situation is exclusively negative, we are very, very wrong. No, he has more people willing to kill Ukrainians to make ends meet.
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Comment from :
Daniel Connery in Ukraine
Some good insights, and I don’t disagree with your logic on recruitment. I would say however, that it’s always been assumed Russia will have near-infinite personnel, so is generally not considered a win-state. Kellogg actually reiterated that point yesterday, in fact.
I do very much like that you’re getting direct from the source info. Even if the sample size is smaller that way, I trust it far more.
Andrew Pryma, author
This is not a rumor. This is how Russian immigrants overseas keep telling us that the economic situation is a disaster and pushes some of them to make a wrong decision. Some Russian families are happy to send their men to improve the financial situation of their families. The excuse is ” Not everyone dies.”
Richardt Guitterzzi
The theory is good, but the math doesn’t add up: The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse, this is the central fact. Putin may even promise a lot of money to recruit soldiers, but he won’t be able to pay them all. Thousands of families will have the right to receive fortunes, but they will receive nothing, as Putin will not be able to pay. I think they will be quite angry. How do you say “Default” in Russian?
Andrew Pryma
Richardt Guitterzzi: The math is correct. He does not need to pay for some of them. 30-40% of the Russian soldiers do not make it till the first payment. The Russian contract says you will receive the joining the army bonus if you survive the first 30 days. Many of them do not.
Greg Grishchenko
So far this is the smartest observation of the UA-RU war, especially sanctions.
Indeed the sanctions are almost useless. In order to survive – the West must demonstrate the willingness to fight (including nuclear conflict). The 1938 Chamberlain solution will not work in nuclear age. We have to show balls of face shameful defeat.
Andrew Pryma
Greg Grishchenko: We have the balls, but it seems like the West does not. If we had everything we asked for, the Russians would have been kicked out.
……………,
From Andrew’s UBS site today :
Zelenskyy will consider negotiations with Putin to end the war in 2025 if Ukraine receives strong security guarantees.
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
From the UBN article, Zel “does not want to freeze the front line, as this would mean that “several Ukrainian cities currently cut off by this contact line will suffer.” Zelenskyy stated that Western sanctions targeting the Russian Federation must be strengthened in order for the war to end this year.”
This is right. He must stick with that.
What the article claims makes a lot of sense, and the commentators, too.
I think that this can go on for a while … money for meat, but not for that long. As the casualties mount, so will the apprehension among the sheep to die a terrible death for something as dubious as a purported payment from the bloodthirsty ghoul.