How did the strikes on Iran affect the supply of terror weapons to Russia and what opportunities did Ukraine gain: analysis of the situation

10.03.2026

The events in Iran have raised many questions among Ukrainians, including how this could affect our country and the war? Yes, it is known that Iran helped Russia and supplied Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, but production has long been localized in the territory of the Russian Federation itself. However, this is far from all.

More details about this can be found in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the group “Information Resistance” .

Before going into detail about this topic, I want to mention a very important aspect – moral and ethical. The current strikes on Iran can be explained by the domestic and foreign policy of the United States, Donald Trump’s desire to take control of the oil country of the Middle East, and many other reasons. But this is their business, and for us, strikes on Iran are primarily an act of justice towards a country that, since 2022, has systematically helped and continues to help Russia kill Ukrainians.

It is unlikely that any of Iran’s leaders and military leadership would end up on trial in The Hague. So sending them two meters underground is fair.

Now let’s move directly to the cooperation between Iran and Russia.

Deliveries from Iran

When we talk about the supply of weapons from Iran to Russia, we first of all remember the Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. They have become not only the main symbol of terror and genocide of Ukrainians, but also, with their presence in the information space, overshadowed other Iranian assistance to the aggressor country.

The thing is that even before the Shahed-136 deliveries (which we will return to later), Iran was also transferring other products to Russia in the first months of the full-scale war in Ukraine.

Equipment for ROV soldiers:

bulletproof vests – Rouin-3;

helmets – NIJ II.

Ammunition:

203 mm for 2S7 “Peony” cannon artillery;

152 mm for D-20 cannon artillery;

130 mm for M-46 cannon artillery;

125 mm tank anti-tank round;

122 mm for D-30 cannon artillery;

122 mm for BM-21 Grad rocket artillery;

120 mm for mortars.

Aerial bombs – Ghaem-5.

ATGM – Dehlaviyeh.

As for UAVs, in addition to the Shahed-136, Russia received from Iran its lightweight version, the Shahed-131, and the Mohajer-6 reconnaissance drone.

For several years, there have been constant reports that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran, in particular, there was talk of the alleged supply of Fateh-110, Zolfaghar, Dezful, and Fath-360. At the same time, to date, there is no verified fact of the use of Iranian ballistics by the aggressor country, as well as the direct receipt of these missiles.

But this does not mean that if Iran continued to produce these products without hindrance, it would not have deployed direct supplies of ballistic missiles to Russia . A striking example is North Korea, which supplies KN-23 ballistic missiles, which are a copy of the Russian 9M723.

During 2025, Russia significantly scaled up the production of 9M723 (“Iskander-M”) ballistic missiles, and the use of ballistic missiles in the rear of Ukraine became a priority.

If in January 2025, the Russian Federation used 28 ballistic missiles against Ukraine in one month, then in January 2026 there were already 91, and in February an absolute record was set – 121.

So the appearance of Iranian ballistic missiles in Russia and their strikes on Ukraine was only a matter of time.

Thus, the war in Iran weakens a serious and promising ally of Russia in matters of production and supply of weapons. But cooperation in matters of exchange of technologies is no less interesting.

Evolution of Shahed-136

During the massive strikes on the countries of the Arabian Gulf using ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones, strikes were also carried out on UAVs with the Russian marking “Geran-2”. Then the question immediately arose: is Russia really supplying an analogue of the Iranian Shahed-136 “Geran-2” to Iran so that it can strike its neighbors?

The answer is both yes and no.

The thing is that from the moment it received the first Shahed-136s, Russia not only began to actively use them to terrorize Ukraine, but also tried to constantly improve them, increase their characteristics, make them more effective during air defense breakthroughs, and more lethal.

First of all, the Russians tried to improve the control and accuracy of the Shahed-136 by adding GLONASS units. Then the heat-loving drones faced the problem of the fuel system at low temperatures – it was modified, the quality of materials and components was improved. The drone was also installed with Russian B-101 flight control units and Comet navigation modules in combination with the B-105 satellite navigation unit. It was the Russian manufacturers who revised the concept of the Shahed-136 fuselage, in particular its strength, which is implemented according to the honeycomb principle.

They tried to increase the destructive effect through constant experiments with warheads – from classic high-explosive fragmentation warheads of various weights (from 40 to 90 kg), to thermobaric incendiary type, tandem warheads, etc.

Russia has been constantly modifying Shahed-136 suicide drones. And it has not only used them to terrorize Ukraine, but also transferred some samples to Iran to study and integrate useful improvements into the production of its own versions. The same exchange took place on the part of Iran, which is why it is not uncommon for Iranian-made Shahed-136s with the “Geran-2” marking to be found among the downed Russian versions in Ukraine, which continued to be supplied to the Russian Federation.

Last year alone, Russia used more than 30 variants of the Shahed-136 in Ukraine. And the exchange of technologies between Iran and the Russian Federation is unimaginable.

Therefore, even at this stage, strikes on Iran are not only about destroying the production of Shahed-136, depleting the terrorist country’s reserves, but also limiting technological interaction.

But that’s not all.

Three other benefits for Ukraine

Strikes on Middle Eastern countries have shown how vulnerable they are in matters of rational, balanced air defense. It was the war in the region that drew attention to Ukrainian interceptor drones. Today, they are seen as a cheap alternative to the expensive Shahed-136 interceptors, which are quickly running out.

Ukraine is sending its specialists and interceptor drones to the Middle East. What does this give us?

First, investments in our defense-industrial complex (DIC). Exchange of technologies is also possible, as well as providing one of the Middle Eastern countries with production facilities for localization of production. Investments and expansion of technological capabilities are exactly what our industry needs.

Secondly, increasing the export opportunities of both the Ukrainian defense industry and interceptor drones on the international market in general. Ukrainian weapons and equipment have long proven their quality and demand in real combat, and export opportunities for them have only just begun to open up. But it is one thing to actualize military products on the basis of one war, and quite another to show interest against the background of another. Ukraine is the legislator of methods of countering threats such as Shahed-136. And this needs to be monetized.

Thirdly , the countries of the Middle East mostly treated the war in Ukraine rather abstractly or, frankly, ignored it altogether. At the same time, the region remained open to Russia, and the UAE is the largest offshore hub of the Russian military-industrial complex in the Middle East. Russian products continue to participate in the IDEX 2025 exhibitions in the Emirates and the World Defense Show 2026 in Saudi Arabia. For their part, current events, perhaps not radically, but still in some way will force these countries to reconsider their attitude to the war in Ukraine.

This is an opportunity for Ukraine to improve its reputation in the diplomatic and political arena in such a difficult region and reach a new level of interaction.

As we can see, the events taking place in Iran have more advantages for Ukraine – from the restoration of justice to the weakening of a serious ally of Russia in the region, as well as the opportunities that open up in a number of areas.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/yak-udari-po-iranu-poznachilisya-na-postachanni-zasobiv-teroru-v-rosiyu-i-yaki-mozhlivosti-otrimala-ukraina-analiz-situatsii.htm

One comment

  1. “It is unlikely that any of Iran’s leaders and military leadership would end up on trial in The Hague. So sending them two meters underground is fair.”

    Pounding them into the ground is the best option. Ditto for the criminal rats in moscovia.

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