What Are the Hidden Risks of a Ceasefire? We Asked Chatham House Experts

UkraineWorld

July 9, 2026

When people look at this war from the outside, they often ask one question: When will it end? Many assume that if a ceasefire is reached, the war will be over and life will return to normal.

But we should not confuse a ceasefire with a lasting peace—or, more importantly, with a just peace that restores Ukraine’s rights. Thinking about a possible ceasefire, therefore, also means thinking about its risks, not only its opportunities.

This is the “Explaining Ukraine” podcast.

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“Explaining Ukraine” is a podcast by UkraineWorld, an English-language media outlet run by Internews Ukraine.

Host: Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher, chief editor of UkraineWorld, and president of PEN Ukraine.

Guests: experts at Chatham House, the renowned London-based think tank:
– Orysia Lutsevych, Head of the Ukraine Forum and Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme, and
– John Lough, an Associate Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme.

Together with their colleagues, Simon Smith and Keir Giles, they wrote a report, “How a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire could imperil Ukrainian and European security”. In this episode, we will talk about its major arguments.

Read the Chatham House Report: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/05/how-ru…opean-security

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Listen on various platforms: li.sten.to/explaining-ukraine
UkraineWorld: ukraineworld.org/en

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CONTENTS:

01:57: Why is discussing a ceasefire, rather than victory or justice, a risk for Ukraine and its partners?
02:48: How does Chatham House view the possibility of a ceasefire, despite having previously argued for Ukrainian victory?
04:27: Do current events in Russia and potential political shifts in the US make a ceasefire a more plausible scenario?
07:13: What are the critical risks for Ukraine, including its sovereignty, economy, and social fabric, in the event of a ceasefire?
11:31: Will European nations maintain their resolve against Russia, or will a ceasefire lead to a desire to return to “business as usual”?
15:07: How will Ukraine manage the challenges of internal resilience, veteran reintegration, and democratic elections during a potential ceasefire?
22:15: How can the international community prevent a temporary ceasefire from morphing into a permanent, unrecognized occupation, akin to historical examples?
26:50: Has the mood within Ukraine shifted, with increased confidence in its ability to reclaim territory and resist pressure for an unfavorable ceasefire?
31:21: What are Chatham House’s key recommendations for Europe to enforce a ceasefire, deter Russia, and support Ukraine’s security?
37:45: What strategic priorities and reforms should Ukraine undertake to build its future military force and integrate with Europe after a ceasefire?
42:16: What are the significant risks for Ukraine and Europe if a ceasefire is not achieved and the war continues indefinitely?
45:39: Can Ukraine leverage its technological advancements to achieve a decisive military defeat of Russia, or does continued conflict pose greater dangers?

Podcast here :

https://m.soundcloud.com/user-579586558/ep-423

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