Euromaidan Press
Morning report day 214 – 25 September: As Russian losses mount in Ukraine, Putin gets more involved in war strategy. Kremlin hints at the use of nuclear weapons if Ukraine liberates its territories after “referendums”. According to Lavrov Russia’s nuclear doctrine will apply to “new” territories
Complaints about chaotic mobilization grow in Russia. Anti-mobilisation protests in Russia: hundreds of protesters detained, some beaten by security forces. With a requirement to quell growing domestic dissent in Russia, as well as operational taskings in Ukraine, Rosgvardia is highly likely under particular strain. There is a realistic possibility that mobilisation will be used to reinforce Rosgvardia units with additional manpower.
Local military commissars are carrying out mobilization orders in a way that suggests a possible disconnect between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s guidelines for partial mobilization and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands for haste. Kremlin considers mobilising Abkhazia and South Ossetia residents. It also considers introducing martial law and banning men from leaving Russia.
Zelenskyy has presented his “formula of peace”: 5 steps to stabilise international relations.
ME: To keep arming Ukraine, Norway may drop munitions stocks below required levels. Britain runs low on ammo as Ukraine bombards Kremlin forces. The US has provided Ukraine with so many weapons and ammunition to counter Russia’s unprovoked invasion that Pentagon stockpiles for some munitions are “uncomfortably low. The Lithuanian Defense Minister has stressed that it is practically impossible to replace the equipment provided to Ukraine with a new one anytime soon. Why? Because of international competition for the limited production capability available. Estonia is reportedly taking very heavy risks of itis own national security as it is tapping into its reserves to supply Ukraine. More allies are doing the same. Germany says that its weapons stocks are depleted. The Netherlands described the situation as everyone “standing in line at the ammunition factories” and called for more coordination among the industry.
The Ukraine war has exposed the skimpiness of western defence stockpiles. Lack of production capacity, labour shortages and supply chain snafus — especially computer chips — mean long lead times to replenish them. The shortages, defence officials and analysts say, reveal the west’s complacency about potential threats since the end of the cold war. There is a growing concern on both sides of the Atlantic about munition stocks and how quickly the industry can replace the weapons being donated to Ukraine.
8 years and 7 months into the war, the West has failed to ramp up the defence industries’ production capacity. Failing to understand the scope of the Russian aggressive foreign policy – failing to respond forcefully to its many transgressions of international law since 2007 – failing to strengthen their defence budgets and re-build the armed forces – and still continuing to maintain that NATO is not engaged in a broader conflict with Russia is no less a strategic blunder than the President Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.