Oct 8, 2023

Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing. Nothing makes this more abundantly clear than the sudden and unexpected attack by Hamas on Israel. Hamas has taken a great gamble and placed its organisation and the people it claims to represent, at enormous risk with no chance of victory or of garnering international support.

The reason Hamas has taken this gamble is because they cannot survive without Russian money and weapons. Putin has given them a choice, to hit Israel with everything they have or have all support and funding cut off. Blackmail is a standard operating procedure in international politics, Russia is not unique in this regard.

Putin hopes that war in Israel will distract the people of the USA away from the war in Ukraine. He hopes that Congress will allocate funds highlighted ( but delayed) away from Ukraine, to defending Israel. In USA politics, public opinion counts more than anywhere else in the world. Using Israel as a distraction might swing votes away from supporting Ukrainian funding. Putin recently tried a similar experiment in Kosovo by inflaming Serbian anti-muslim sentiments but no one took much notice.

Putin had tried invasion, murdering civilians, cutting food supplies, bombing hospitals, poisoning enemies and teaching oligarchs how to free fall. Nothing worked. Now he is starting little wars to deflect and distract. Of course, he will also deny.

Ukraine is winning. the Russian Black Sea Fleet has left Sevastopol, the grain line is open down the west coat of Romania and Bulgaria. Russian land forces are giving ground in Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The Russians are shooting down more of their own aircraft than the enemy. Crimea is ripe for isolation and occupation, and of course Russian money is running out.

Russia, a main oil producer cannot export refined oil products because it does not have fuel for its army or for its farmers to collect the harvest. It couldn’t get much worse for Putin. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Georgia are finding the courage to say ‘no’ to Putin and Putin has little left to threaten them with.

Putin is left with Hamas, an insignificant terrorist group that fired off most of their ammunition, just to keep him happy.

Ukraine is winning.
Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall